International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar

Two main forces lie behind the large U.S. current account deficits: an increase in U.S. demand for foreign goods and an increase in foreign demand for U.S. assets. Both have contributed to steadily increasing current account deficits since the mid-1990s, accompanied by a real dollar appreciation until late 2001 and a real depreciation since, which accelerated in late 2004. This paper explores whether and how much more depreciation is to come, and against which currencies: the euro, the yen, or the renminbi. The paper develops a simple model of exchange rate and current account determination based on imperfect substitutability in both goods and asset markets and uses that model to interpret the past and explore alternative future scenarios. The paper concludes that substantially more depreciation is to come, surely against the yen and the renminbi, and probably against the euro.macroeconomics, International Investors, U.S. Current Account, Dollar

Complementary Metagenomic Approaches Improve Reconstruction of Microbial Diversity in a Forest Soil.

Soil ecosystems harbor diverse microorganisms and yet remain only partially characterized as neither single-cell sequencing nor whole-community sequencing offers a complete picture of these complex communities. Thus, the genetic and metabolic potential of this "uncultivated majority" remains underexplored. To address these challenges, we applied a pooled-cell-sorting-based mini-metagenomics approach and compared the results to bulk metagenomics. Informatic binning of these data produced 200 mini-metagenome assembled genomes (sorted-MAGs) and 29 bulk metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs). The sorted and bulk MAGs increased the known phylogenetic diversity of soil taxa by 7.2% with respect to the Joint Genome Institute IMG/M database and showed clade-specific sequence recruitment patterns across diverse terrestrial soil metagenomes. Additionally, sorted-MAGs expanded the rare biosphere not captured through MAGs from bulk sequences, exemplified through phylogenetic and functional analyses of members of the phylum Bacteroidetes Analysis of 67 Bacteroidetes sorted-MAGs showed conserved patterns of carbon metabolism across four clades. These results indicate that mini-metagenomics enables genome-resolved investigation of predicted metabolism and demonstrates the utility of combining metagenomics methods to tap into the diversity of heterogeneous microbial assemblages.IMPORTANCE Microbial ecologists have historically used cultivation-based approaches as well as amplicon sequencing and shotgun metagenomics to characterize microbial diversity in soil. However, challenges persist in the study of microbial diversity, including the recalcitrance of the majority of microorganisms to laboratory cultivation and limited sequence assembly from highly complex samples. The uncultivated majority thus remains a reservoir of untapped genetic diversity. To address some of the challenges associated with bulk metagenomics as well as low throughput of single-cell genomics, we applied flow cytometry-enabled mini-metagenomics to capture expanded microbial diversity from forest soil and compare it to soil bulk metagenomics. Our resulting data from this pooled-cell sorting approach combined with bulk metagenomics revealed increased phylogenetic diversity through novel soil taxa and rare biosphere members. In-depth analysis of genomes within the highly represented Bacteroidetes phylum provided insights into conserved and clade-specific patterns of carbon metabolism

Decades of dietary data demonstrate regional food web structures in the Southern Ocean

Understanding regional‐scale food web structure in the Southern Ocean is critical to informing fisheries management and assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems and ecosystem services. Historically, a large component of Southern Ocean ecosystem research has focused on Antarctic krill, which provide a short, highly efficient food chain, linking primary producers to higher trophic levels. Over the last 15 years, the presence of alternative energy pathways has been identified and hypotheses on their relative importance in different regions raised. Using the largest circumpolar dietary database ever compiled, we tested these hypotheses using an empirical circumpolar comparison of food webs across the four major regions/sectors of the Southern Ocean (defined as south of 40°S) within the austral summer period. We used network analyses and generalizations of taxonomic food web structure to confirm that while Antarctic krill are dominant as the mid‐trophic level for the Atlantic and East Pacific food webs (including the Scotia Arc and Western Antarctic Peninsula), mesopelagic fish and other krill species are dominant contributors to predator diets in the Indian and West Pacific regions (East Antarctica and the Ross Sea). We also highlight how tracking data and habitat modeling for mobile top predators in the Southern Ocean show that these species integrate food webs over large regional scales. Our study provides a quantitative assessment, based on field observations, of the degree of regional differentiation in Southern Ocean food webs and the relative importance of alternative energy pathways between regions

The Search for Invariance: Repeated Positive Testing Serves the Goals of Causal Learning

Positive testing is characteristic of exploratory behavior, yet it seems to be at odds with the aim of information seeking. After all, repeated demonstrations of one’s current hypothesis often produce the same evidence and fail to distinguish it from potential alternatives. Research on the development of scientific reasoning and adult rule learning have both documented and attempted to explain this behavior. The current chapter reviews this prior work and introduces a novel theoretical account—the Search for Invariance (SI) hypothesis—which suggests that producing multiple positive examples serves the goals of causal learning. This hypothesis draws on the interventionist framework of causal reasoning, which suggests that causal learners are concerned with the invariance of candidate hypotheses. In a probabilistic and interdependent causal world, our primary goal is to determine whether, and in what contexts, our causal hypotheses provide accurate foundations for inference and intervention—not to disconfirm their alternatives. By recognizing the central role of invariance in causal learning, the phenomenon of positive testing may be reinterpreted as a rational information-seeking strategy

Parents' concerns about children are highly prevalent but often not confirmed by child doctors and nurses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence in the general population of parents' concerns about the development of their child, to identify groups at risk and to assess the association between parents' concerns and professional judgement.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We obtained cross-sectional data on a Dutch nationally representative sample of children aged 14 months, 3 3/4, 5–6 and 8–12 years within the setting of routine well-child visits provided to the entire population. A total of 4,107 participated (response rate 85.3%). Data were about concerns that parents reported by questionnaire before the visit regarding behavioural and emotional problems, developmental delay, consequences of disease and contact with peers that needed professional assistance, and about the assessment of these domains by doctors and nurses during the visit. Moreover, we obtained data on parent-reported psychosocial problems using the Infant-Toddler Social and Emotional Assessment and the Child Behavior Checklist.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of all parents, 49.3% reported some concerns and 8.7% reported frequent concerns, most frequently on child behaviour. Frequent concerns were most likely to refer to young children, children from labour immigrant families, with fathers of medium educational level and in low-income families. The prevalence rates of professional-assessed parenting problems were much lower than parent-reported ones. The rates of psychosocial problems were highest in the case of shared concerns, but also higher if parents expressed concerns that were not confirmed by professionals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A very large proportion of parents of young children have concerns regarding their child, but agreement on these concerns with child health professionals is relatively low.</p

Changes in microphytobenthos fluorescence over a tidal cycle: implications for sampling designs

Intertidal microphytobenthos (MPB) are important primary producers and provide food for herbivores in soft sediments and on rocky shores. Methods of measuring MPB biomass that do not depend on the time of collection relative to the time of day or tidal conditions are important in any studies that need to compare temporal or spatial variation, effects of abiotic factors or activity of grazers. Pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry is often used to estimate biomass of MPB because it is a rapid, non-destructive method, but it is not known how measures of fluorescence are altered by changing conditions during a period of low tide. We investigated this experimentally using in situ changes in minimal fluorescence (F) on a rocky shore and on an estuarine mudflat around Sydney (Australia), during low tides. On rocky shores, the time when samples are taken during low tide had little direct influence on measures of fluorescence as long as the substratum is dry. Wetness from wave-splash, seepage from rock pools, run-off, rainfall, etc., had large consequences for any comparisons. On soft sediments, fluorescence was decreased if the sediment dried out, as happens during low-spring tides on particularly hot and dry days. Surface water affected the response of PAM and therefore measurements used to estimate MPB, emphasising the need for care to ensure that representative sampling is done during low tide

The Eyes Have It: Sex and Sexual Orientation Differences in Pupil Dilation Patterns

Recent research suggests profound sex and sexual orientation differences in sexual response. These results, however, are based on measures of genital arousal, which have potential limitations such as volunteer bias and differential measures for the sexes. The present study introduces a measure less affected by these limitations. We assessed the pupil dilation of 325 men and women of various sexual orientations to male and female erotic stimuli. Results supported hypotheses. In general, self-reported sexual orientation corresponded with pupil dilation to men and women. Among men, substantial dilation to both sexes was most common in bisexual-identified men. In contrast, among women, substantial dilation to both sexes was most common in heterosexual-identified women. Possible reasons for these differences are discussed. Because the measure of pupil dilation is less invasive than previous measures of sexual response, it allows for studying diverse age and cultural populations, usually not included in sexuality research

Paramedic clinical decision making during high acuity emergency calls: design and methodology of a Delphi study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The scope of practice of paramedics in Canada has steadily evolved to include increasingly complex interventions in the prehospital setting, which likely have repercussions on clinical outcome and patient safety. Clinical decision making has been evaluated in several health professions, but there is a paucity of work in this area on paramedics. This study will utilize the Delphi technique to establish consensus on the most important instances of paramedic clinical decision making during high acuity emergency calls, as they relate to clinical outcome and patient safety.</p> <p>Methods and design</p> <p>Participants in this multi-round survey study will be paramedic leaders and emergency medical services medical directors/physicians from across Canada. In the first round, participants will identify instances of clinical decision making they feel are important for patient outcome and safety. On the second round, the panel will rank each instance of clinical decision making in terms of its importance. On the third and potentially fourth round, participants will have the opportunity to revise the ranking they assigned to each instance of clinical decision making. Consensus will be considered achieved for the most important instances if 80% of the panel ranks it as important or extremely important. The most important instances of clinical decision making will be plotted on a process analysis map.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The process analysis map that results from this Delphi study will enable the gaps in research, knowledge and practice to be identified.</p

Chronic disease risk factors associated with health service use in the elderly

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To examine the association between number and combination of chronic disease risk factors on health service use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from the 1995 Nova Scotia Health Survey (n = 2,653) was linked to provincial health services administrative databases. Multivariate regression models were developed that included important interactions between risk factors and were stratified by sex and at age 50. Negative-binomial regression models were estimated using generalized estimating equations assuming an autoregressive covariance structure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As the number of chronic disease risk factors increased so did the number of annual general practitioner visits, specialist visits and days spent in hospital in people aged 50 and older. This was not seen among individuals under age 50. Comparison of smokers, people with high blood pressure and people with high cholesterol showed no significantly different impact on health service use.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>As the number of chronic disease risk factors increased so did health service use among individuals over age 50 but risk factor combination had no impact.</p