Duration of Viral Suppression and Risk of Rebound Viremia with First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural Uganda

Little is known about associations between viral suppression, adherence, and duration of prior viral suppression in sub-Saharan Africa. Study participants were from the UARTO study in Mbarara, Uganda. We fit regression models to characterize relationships between average adherence, treatment interruptions, and rebound viremia (>400 copies/mL) following a previously undetectable result. Our goal was to understand the impact of prior viral suppression on these relationships. 396 participants contributed 2864 quarterly visits. Restricted to periods with average adherence <50 %, each 10 % increase in adherence reduced the odds of rebound viremia by 74 % [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.26, P = 0.002] and 29 % (AOR = 0.71, P = 0.057) during the first 12 months of suppression and beyond 12 months respectively, interaction term P = 0.018. Among periods with adherence ≥50 %, the risk of rebound viremia decreased with increasing adherence during the first 12 months of viral suppression (AOR = 0.73 for each 10 % increase, P = 0.001), but not thereafter (AOR = 1.09, P = 0.67), interaction term P = 0.027. In contrast, 72-h interruptions, were associated with increased rebound viremia during the first 12 months (AOR = 1.30, P = 0.009) and after (AOR = 1.39, P = 0.005), interaction term P = 0.69. Completing 12 months of viral suppression decreases the impact of average adherence, but not prolonged treatment interruptions, on risk of rebound viremia

Derivation and validation of a universal vital assessment (UVA) score: A tool for predicting mortality in adult hospitalised patients in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background Critical illness is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Identifying patients with the highest risk of death could help with resource allocation and clinical decision making. Accordingly, we derived and validated a universal vital assessment (UVA) score for use in SSA. Methods We pooled data from hospital-based cohort studies conducted in six countries in SSA spanning the years 2009–2015. We derived and internally validated a UVA score using decision trees and linear regression and compared its performance with the modified early warning score (MEWS) and the quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score. results Of 5573 patients included in the analysis, 2829 (50.8%) were female, the median (IQR) age was 36 (27–49) years, 2122 (38.1%) were HIV-infected and 996 (17.3%) died in-hospital. The UVA score included points for temperature, heart and respiratory rates, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation, Glasgow Coma Scale score and HIV serostatus, and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.79), which outperformed MEWS (AUC 0.70 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.71)) and qSOFA (AUC 0.69 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.72)). conclusion We identified predictors of in-hospital mortality irrespective of the underlying condition(s) in a large population of hospitalised patients in SSA and derived and internally validated a UVA score to assist clinicians in risk-stratifying patients for in-hospital mortality. The UVA score could help improve patient triage in resource-limited environments and serve as a standard for mortality risk in future studies