Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change

Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. The assumed scenario is important too, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. Because of this, variations in the assumed inequity aversion have little effect on the marginal damage cost in some scenarios, and a large effect in other scenarios.marginal damage costs, climate change, equity

Equity Weighting and the Marginal Damage Costs of Climate Change

Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. The assumed scenario is important too, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. Because of this, variations in the assumed inequity aversion have little effect on the marginal damage cost in some scenarios, and a large effect in other scenarios.Marginal Damage Costs, Climate Change, Equity

CHECKING THE PRICE TAG ON CATASTROPHE: THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON UNDER NON-LINEAR CLIMATE RESPONSE

Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — the marginal social damage from a ton of emitted carbon — has tended to focus on “best guess” scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high-damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of non-linear climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the thermohaline circulation; the dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above “best guess” levels. We find that incorporating these impacts can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of 20. Furthermore, our results suggest that the exclusive focus on thermohaline circulation collapse in the non-linear climate response literature is unwarranted, because other potential non-linear climate responses appear to be significantly more costly.climate change, catastrophe, non-linearity, impacts

Livestock paths on Namaqualand quartz fields: Will the endemic flora disappear?

AbstractQuartz fields are rare features that contribute significantly to vegetation diversity and endemism of South Africa's Succulent Karoo Biome. The Riethuis-Wallekraal quartz fields in the north-western Namaqualand area of South Africa contain 17 quartz field specialist species of which seven are endemic to this specific area. Hoof-action by livestock has formed paths of approximately 0.30m on these quartz fields. It would be important to conservationists to understand whether direct (e.g. trampling) and indirect effects (e.g. burial of flora by sediment movement) associated with the livestock paths holds any threat to the dwarf succulent (<0.05m) and micro-chamaephytes (0.06–0.15m) endemic to the quartz fields. We tested the hypotheses that the unique quartz field vegetation and biological soil crusts would be affected by loose soil particles transported downslope from the paths. The soil stability index, total vegetation cover, cover of specialized quartz field species and species diversity were lower on livestock paths but did not differ between upslope and downslope locations. Livestock paths also had lower cover and fewer quartz field specialist species. It is concluded that under conditions of intense and continuous grazing, livestock are likely to have an even stronger negative impact on the specialist quartz field flora

Checking the price tag on catastrophe: The social cost of carbon under non-linear climate response. ESRI WP392, June 2011

Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — the marginal social damage from a tonne of emitted carbon — has tended to focus on “best guess” scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high- damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of low-probability, high-impact climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation; large scale dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above “best guess” levels. We find that incorporating these events can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of over 3

The importance of stratigraphic plays in the undiscovered resources of the UKCS

This paper analyses the demographics of existing Un ited Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) fields and discoveries as a means of assessing which plays are likely to offer the greatest untapped potential for stratigraphic traps. The talk is illustrated with examples of proven and untested stratigraphic traps

Site assessment of Douglas Shoal ship grounding in the Great Barrier Reef

The bulk carrier Shen Neng 1 ran aground on Douglas Shoal in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park in April 2010. At over 40 hectares, this is the largest ship grounding scar known in the Great Barrier Reef, and possibly the largest reef-related grounding in the world. Challenges for assessment of the site included its large scale and the remote nature of Douglas Shoal coupled with its high exposure to wind, wave conditions and fauna that may pose safety hazards. Marine surveys used multiple and novel methods including sediment sampling combined with visual and acoustic survey techniques

Mineral resource information in support of national, regional and local planning : Suffolk

This report is one of a series prepared by the British Geological Survey for various administrative areas in England for the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister's research project Mineral Resource Information in Support of National, Regional and Local Planning. The accompanying map relates to the county of Suffolk and delineates the mineral resources of current, or potential, economic interest in the area and the sites where minerals are or have been worked. It also relates these to national planning designations, which may represent constraints on the extraction of minerals. Three major elements of information are presented: • the geological distribution and importance of mineral resources; • the extent of mineral planning permissions and the location of current mineral workings, and • the extent of selected, nationally-designated planning constraints. This wide range of information, much of which is scattered and not always available in a consistent and convenient form, is presented on a digitally-generated summary map on the scale of 1:100 000. This scale is convenient for the overall display of the data and allows for a legible topographic base on which to depict the information. However, all the data are held digitally at larger scales using a Geographical Information System (GIS), which allows easy revision, updating and customisation of the information together with its possible integration with other datasets. The information will form part of a Summary of the Mineral Resources of the East of England Region. The purpose of the work is to assist all interested parties involved in the preparation and review of development plans, both in relation to the extraction of minerals and the protection of mineral resources from sterilisation. It provides a knowledge base, in a consistent format, on the nature and extent of mineral resources and the environmental constraints, which may affect their extraction. An important objective is to provide baseline data for the long term. The results may also provide a starting point for discussions on specific planning proposals for mineral extraction or on proposals, which may sterilise resources. It is anticipated that the maps and report will also provide valuable background data for a much wider audience, including the different sectors of the minerals industry, other agencies and authorities (e.g. The Planning Inspectorate Agency, the Environment Agency, the Countryside Agency and English Nature), environmental interests and the general public. Basic mineral resource information is essential to support mineral exploration and development activities, for resource management and land-use planning, and to establish baseline data for environmental impact studies and environmental guidelines. It also enables a more sustainable pattern and standard of development to be achieved by valuing mineral resources as national assets. The mineral resources covered are sand and gravel, brick clay, hydrocarbons, building stone, chalk and peat

Mutations in HIV reverse transcriptase which alter RNase H activity and decrease strand transfer efficiency are suppressed by HIV nucleocapsid protein

Structural studies of authentic HIV reverse transcriptase (RT) suggest a role for the p51 carboxyl terminus in forming an active RNase H conformation [Rodgers, D. W., Gamblin, S. J., Harris, B. A., Ray, S., Culp, J. S., Hellmig, B., Woolf, D. J., Debouck, C. and Harrison, S.C. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 1222-1226]. We have purified mutant RT heterodimers containing deletion of 5, 9, or 13 amino acids from the p51 carboxyl terminus. These 'selectively deleted' heterodimers have been analyzed for changes in RNA-dependent DNA polymerase activity, RNase H activity, and the ability to catalyze DNA strand transfer. As deletions extended into the p51 subunit, a decrease in the stability of the RT-DNA complex was apparent. The largest effect was observed for p66/p51Δ13 RT, which showed a 3-fold decrease relative to wild-type RT. RNase H activity was measured by digestion of the RNA in a 5' 32P-labeled RNA/DNA hybrid. Deletion of 5 or 9 amino acids from pSI had little effect on synthesis-dependent and synthesis- independent RNase H activities. In contrast, deletion of 13 amino acids from p51 increased the length of the hydrolysis products of both RNase H activities by 8-10 bp, thus changing the spatial relationship between the polymerase and RNase H active sites from a distance of 17-18 bp to 26-27 bp. The Δ13 derivative was also incapable of efficient DNA strand transfer. This defect in strand transfer could be suppressed by the 71-amino acid form of HIV nucleocapsid protein (NC) but not by the 55-amino acid form (NC55) or by equine infectious anemia virus NC. These results provide evidence for the existence of a specific complex between RT and NC and are discussed in terms of the role of this complex in proviral DNA synthesis