The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events

The aim of this work is to present preliminary results of the statistical and dynamical simulations carried out within the framework of the Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America (FPS-SESA) endorsed by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) program. The FPS-SESA initiative seeks to promote inter-institutional collaboration and further networking with focus on extreme rainfall events. The main scientific aim is to study multi-scale processes and interactions most conducive to extreme precipitation events through both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, including convection-permitting simulations. To this end, a targeted experiment was designed considering the season October 2009 to March 2010, a period with a record number of extreme precipitation events within SESA. Also, three individual extreme events within that season were chosen as case studies for analyzing specific regional processes and sensitivity to resolutions. Four dynamical and four statistical downscaling models (RCM and ESD respectively) from different institutions contributed to the experiment. In this work, an analysis of the capability of the set of the FPS-SESA downscaling methods in simulating daily precipitation during the selected warm season is presented together with an integrated assessment of multiple sources of observations and available CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations. Comparisons among all simulations reveal that there is no single model that performs best in all aspects evaluated. The ability in reproducing the different features of daily precipitation depends on the model. However, the evaluation of the sequence of precipitation events, their intensity and timing suggests that FPS-SESA simulations based on both RCM and ESD yield promising results. Most models capture the extreme events selected, although with a considerable spread in accumulated values and the location of heavy precipitation.Thanks to CORDEX for endorsing the FPS-SESA. This work was supported by the University of Buenos Aires 2018- 20020170100117BA grant; JMG, MLB, SAS, RPR funding from the Spanish Research Council (CSIC) I-COOP+ Program “reference COOPB20374”. JMG, JF and AL-G acknowledge support from the Spanish R&D Program through projects MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R) and INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R), co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/FEDER). AL-G acknowledges support from the Spanish R&D Program through the predoctoral contract BES-2016-078158. Universidad de Cantabria simulations have been carried out on the Altamira Supercomputer at the Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA-CSIC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. MB acknowledges support from the Simons Associateship of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics. RH acknowledges support from the project LTT17007 funded by the Ministry of Education, Youth, and Sports of the Czech Republic

The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events

The aim of this work is to present preliminary results of the statistical and dynamical simulations carried out within the framework of the Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America (FPS-SESA) endorsed by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) program. The FPS-SESA initiative seeks to promote inter-institutional collaboration and further networking with focus on extreme rainfall events. The main scientific aim is to study multi-scale processes and interactions most conducive to extreme precipitation events through both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, including convection-permitting simulations. To this end, a targeted experiment was designed considering the season October 2009 to March 2010, a period with a record number of extreme precipitation events within SESA. Also, three individual extreme events within that season were chosen as case studies for analyzing specific regional processes and sensitivity to resolutions. Four dynamical and four statistical downscaling models (RCM and ESD respectively) from different institutions contributed to the experiment. In this work, an analysis of the capability of the set of the FPS-SESA downscaling methods in simulating daily precipitation during the selected warm season is presented together with an integrated assessment of multiple sources of observations and available CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations. Comparisons among all simulations reveal that there is no single model that performs best in all aspects evaluated. The ability in reproducing the different features of daily precipitation depends on the model. However, the evaluation of the sequence of precipitation events, their intensity and timing suggests that FPS-SESA simulations based on both RCM and ESD yield promising results. Most models capture the extreme events selected, although with a considerable spread in accumulated values and the location of heavy precipitation.Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: da Rocha, R.P.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Llopart, M.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Gutierrez, J.M.. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Fernández, J.. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Lavin Gullon, A.. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Chou, S.C.. Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climático; BrasilFil: Carneiro Rodrigues, D.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Coppola, E.. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; ItaliaFil: Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Barreiro, M.. Universidad de la República; UruguayFil: Blazquez, Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Huth, R.. Charles University; República ChecaFil: Machado, L.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Vianna Cuadra, S.. Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation; Brasi

Anemia e deficiência de ferro em gestantes adolescentes Anemia and iron deficiency in pregnant adolescents

Por meio de dosagem de ferritina sérica, transferrina sérica, hemoglobina e hematócrito, caracterizou-se o estado nutricional de ferro de 79 gestantes adolescentes de primeira consulta pré-natal (<FONT FACE=Symbol>£ </FONT>20 semanas de gestação), atendidas na Rede Básica de Saúde de um Município da Grande São Paulo. Todos os valores hematológicos estudados foram menores entre as gestantes do segundo trimestre gestacional em relação às do primeiro, sendo as diferenças estatisticamente significativas (p<0,05) apenas para hemoglobina. Verificou-se que 64,3% e 32,1% possuíam, respectivamente, menos de 500 mg e 300 mg de ferro em suas reservas, sendo que 5,4% apresentavam carência grave do mineral. Segundo critério da Organização Mundial da Saúde 19,0% das gestantes eram ferro-deficientes (saturação da transferrina < 16,0 %) e 13,9% eram anêmicas (Hemoglobina < 11 g/dl).<br>The objective of this study was to characterize iron nutritional status of 79 pregnant adolescents, at first prenatal consultation (<= 20 weeks of gestation), in the Primary Health System of a district of Great São Paulo, through the serum ferritin, serum transferrin, hemoglobin and hematocrit determinations. All the hematologic values studied were smaller for the pregnant adolescents in the second gestational trimester than for the ones in the first. Statistically significant differences (p.<.0.05) were found just for hemoglobin. It was verified that 64.3% and 32.1% had, respectively, less than 500.mg and 300.mg of organic iron reservations, and 5.4% presented serious lack of this mineral. By World Health Organization criterion 19.0% of the pregnant women were iron-deficient (Saturation of Transferrin <.16%) and 13.9% were anemic (Hemoglobin.<.11 g/dl)