Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Control in Theory and Practice

The theory of efficient policy instruments for agricultural pollution control has been evolving. Some new developments suggest that policies using financial incentives to encourage desirable farming practices are superior to those focusing on runoff directly or restrictions on farming practices. However, the theoretical models used to derive such results make assumptions about conditions that may not hold. As a result, implementation of the findings of such models is not necessarily routine. This article attempts to summarize these studies and interpret their implications for agricultural nonpoint source pollution control for the Chesapeake Bay.Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Phylogenetic multi-locus codon models and molecular clocks reveal the monophyly of haematophagous reduviid bugs and their evolution at the formation of South America.

We previously constructed a single molecular clock to date insect evolution that remains a cornerstone within entomological dating. The insect clock predicts that triatomine bugs, the vectors of South American trypanosomiasis, originated with the formation of South America. We addressed this hypothesis using the insectivorous reduviid bugs and their phylogenetic relationship with the haematophagous reduviid bugs, as well as their biogeographic distribution. Putative paraphyly or monophyly of Triatominae, by non-haematophagous reduviids, have both previously been hypothesized and identified. We sampled a broad range of predatory reduviids, viz. Ectrichodiinae, Emesinae, Hammacerinae, Harpactorinae, Reduviinae, Salyavatinae, Steniopodainae and Vesciinae, including both New World and Old World representatives and sequenced the nuclear 28S ribosomal gene locus and the mitochondrial loci 5' cytochrome oxidase 1 (cox1 [COI]), cox1 3', cytochrome oxidase 2 (cox2 [COII]) and cytochrome oxidase b (cob [cytb]). Robust evidence for the monophyly of Triatominae was observed in 5/5 loci using codon/nucleotide (28S) based maximum likelihood phylogenies, 3/5 loci using codon-based Bayesian phylogenies and in cox2 using amino acid Bayesian phylogenies. Several South American members of the Reduviinae, that are morphologically and phylogenetically a sister group to triatomine bugs, have a modal divergence date with the Triatominae of 109-107 million years ago (MYA). This creates a scenario where the closest (non-haematophagous) ancestor to triatomine bugs evolved immediately prior to the breakup of Gondwanaland whilst the triatomine bugs evolved 95MYA, putatively linking the origin of haematophagous behaviour to the origin of South America and in particular infers a delayed onset to the evolution of haematophagy. The placement of the enigmatic tribe Bolboderini as an ingroup to the Triatominae monophyly, confirms the 95MYA node as the most ancient in the subfamily

The Physics of 'Now'

The world is four-dimensional according to fundamental physics, governed by basic laws that operate in a spacetime that has no unique division into space and time. Yet our subjective experience is divided into present, past, and future. This paper discusses the origin of this division in terms of simple models of information gathering and utilizing systems (IGUSes). Past, present, and future are not properties of four-dimensional spacetime but notions describing how individual IGUSes process information. Their origin is to be found in how these IGUSes evolved or were constructed. The past, present, and future of an IGUS is consistent with the four-dimensional laws of physics and can be described in four-dimensional terms. The present, for instance, is not a moment of time in the sense of a spacelike surface in spacetime. Rather there is a localized notion of present at each point along an IGUS' world line. The common present of many localized IGUSes is an approximate notion appropriate when they are sufficiently close to each other and have relative velocities much less than that of light. But modes of organization that are different from present, past and future can be imagined that are consistent with the physical laws. We speculate why the present, past, and future organization might be favored by evolution and therefore a cognitive universal.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, Revtex4, minor correction

The No-Boundary Measure in the Regime of Eternal Inflation

The no-boundary wave function (NBWF) specifies a measure for prediction in cosmology that selects inflationary histories and remains well behaved for spatially large or infinite universes. This paper explores the predictions of the NBWF for linear scalar fluctuations about homogeneous and isotropic backgrounds in models with a single scalar field moving in a quadratic potential. We treat both the space-time geometry of the universe and the observers inhabiting it quantum mechanically. We evaluate top-down probabilities for local observations that are conditioned on the NBWF and on part of our data as observers of the universe. For models where the most probable histories do not have a regime of eternal inflation, the NBWF predicts homogeneity on large scales, a specific non-Gaussian spectrum of observable fluctuations, and a small amount of inflation in our past. By contrast, for models where the dominant histories have a regime of eternal inflation, the NBWF predicts significant inhomogeneity on scales much larger than the present horizon, a Gaussian spectrum of observable fluctuations, and a long period of inflation in our past. The absence or presence of local non-Gaussianity therefore provides information about the global structure of the universe, assuming the NBWF.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figure

Inflation Forecast Targeting: A VAR Approach

We show how to implement inflation forecast targeting using a VAR model and derive the implied inflation-output variability frontier. Our approach is based on dynamic, stochastic simulations of the average inflation rate over a two-year horizon using the moving average representation of the VAR model. Using real time data over two samples, we estimate the inflation-output variability frontier for the U.S. and show that it has shifted favorably over time. We consider the frequency and nature of the policy interventions required to achieve target inflation in both samples and compare these interventions over time.