Statistical Analysis of the Bio-assay of Continuous Carcinogens

In an experiment consisting of the continuous constant application of various carcinogenic regimens to a pure strain of experimental animals for a long period, the cancer incidence rates so caused may be studied and compared by the fit of an appropriate class of statistical distributions. In this paper we show that a Weibull distribution in which the age-specific cancer incidence rate rises as a power of time since first risk is more appropriate than a lognormal distribution. If the Weibull family of distributions is used, more information can be extracted from the data, and differences of toxicity between various regimens will not bias the comparison of their carcinogenic forces

Automatic Optic Disc Abnormality Detection in Fundus Images: A Deep Learning Approach

Optic disc (OD) is a key structure in retinal images. It serves as an indicator to detect various diseases such as glaucoma and changes related to new vessel formation on the OD in diabetic retinopathy (DR) or retinal vein occlusion. OD is also essential to locate structures such as the macula and the main vascular arcade. Most existing methods for OD localization are rule-based, either exploiting the OD appearance properties or the spatial relationship between the OD and the main vascular arcade. The detection of OD abnormalities has been performed through the detection of lesions such as hemorrhaeges or through measuring cup to disc ratio. Thus these methods result in complex and inflexible image analysis algorithms limiting their applicability to large image sets obtained either in epidemiological studies or in screening for retinal or optic nerve diseases. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end supervised model for OD abnormality detection. The most informative features of the OD are learned directly from retinal images and are adapted to the dataset at hand. Our experimental results validated the effectiveness of this current approach and showed its potential application

Design and analysis of randomized clinical trials requiring prolonged observation of each patient. I. Introduction and design.

The Medical Research Council has for some years encouraged collaborative clinical trials in leukaemia and other cancers, reporting the results in the medical literature. One unreported result which deserves such publication is the development of the expertise to design and analyse such trials. This report was prepared by a group of British and American statisticians, but it is intended for people without any statistical expertise. Part I, which appears in this issue, discusses the design of such trials; Part II, which will appear separately in the January 1977 issue of the Journal, gives full instructions for the statistical analysis of such trials by means of life tables and the logrank test, including a worked example, and discusses the interpretation of trial results, including brief reports of 2 particular trials. Both parts of this report are relevant to all clinical trials which study time to death, and wound be equally relevant to clinical trials which study time to other particular classes of untoward event: first stroke, perhaps, or first relapse, metastasis, disease recurrence, thrombosis, transplant rejection, or death from a particular cause. Part I, in this issue, collects together ideas that have mostly already appeared in the medical literature, but Part II, next month, is the first simple account yet published for non-statistical physicians of how to analyse efficiently data from clinical trials of survival duration. Such trials include the majority of all clinical trials of cancer therapy; in cancer trials,however, it may be preferable to use these statistical methods to study time to local recurrence of tumour, or to study time to detectable metastatic spread, in addition to studying total survival. Solid tumours can be staged at diagnosis; if this, or any other available information in some other disease is an important determinant of outcome, it can be used to make the overall logrank test for the whole heterogeneous trial population more sensitive, and more intuitively satisfactory, for it will then only be necessary to compare like with like, and not, by chance, Stage I with Stage III

Design and analysis of randomized clinical trials requiring prolonged observation of each patient. II. analysis and examples.

Part I of this report appeared in the previous issue (Br. J. Cancer (1976) 34,585), and discussed the design of randomized clinical trials. Part II now describes efficient methods of analysis of randomized clinical trials in which we wish to compare the duration of survival (or the time until some other untoward event first occurs) among different groups of patients. It is intended to enable physicians without statistical training either to analyse such data themselves using life tables, the logrank test and retrospective stratification, or, when such analyses are presented, to appreciate them more critically, but the discussion may also be of interest to statisticians who have not yet specialized in clinical trial analyses

The TD50: a proposed general convention for the numerical description of the carcinogenic potency of chemicals in chronic-exposure animal experiments.

A generally accepted format for the numerical description of the carcinogenic potency of a particular chemical in a particular strain of animals is desirable so that statements from different sources about potency and attempts by different authors to correlate potency with particular laboratory measurements will be comparable. The choice of an appropriate standard format is to a certain extent arbitrary. In this paper we recommend that the TD50 (tumorigenic dose rate 50) be used. TD50 can be calculated for a single target site or combination of sites. The TD50, in analogy with the LD50, is defined as that chronic dose rate (in mg/kg body weight/day) which would halve the actuarially adjusted percentage of tumor-free animals at the end of a standard experiment time--the "standard lifespan" for the species. This paper consists of a brief discussion of the TD50, sufficient to make the general reader familiar with the properties of such an index, an appendix discussing methods for its estimation and certain conventions we have adopted for use in analyzing "nonstandard" experiments. A major problem in calculating any index of carcinogenic potency is that much published material gives only the final crude percentage of tumor-bearing animals at each dose, instead of percentages adjusted for the effects of intercurrent mortality or data from which these adjusted percentages can be derived. If the dose level administered to the animals is toxic, then premature death from nonneoplastic causes may prevent some dosed animals that would have developed tumors from actually doing so. This will particularly affect the high-dose group.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS

Genital warts and cervical neoplasia: an epidemiological study.

Cervical carcinoma and cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) are likely to be associated with all sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). To help discover which (if any) of the recognised STDs might actually cause these conditions, a key question is whether one particular such association is much stronger than the others. The present study is therefore only of women newly attending an STD clinic, and compares the prevalences of cytological abnormalities of the cervix among 415 women attending with genital warts, 135 with genital herpes, and 458 with trichomoniasis or gonorrhoea. Significantly more genital wart patients (8.1%) than trichomoniasis or gonorrhoea patients (1.9%) showed dyskaryotic changes (adjusted relative risk (RR) = 5.8 with 95% limits 2.5-13.5) at, or a few months before, first attendance, while no excess whatever was seen in women with genital herpes. Moreover, half the women had a subsequent smear (at an average of 3-4 years after first attendance) and, although the diagnosis at first attendance was not related to the onset rate of dyskaryotic changes observed in these subsequent smears, it was related to the onset rate of grade III cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN III), which was found in 7 previous genital wart patients, in 2 previous trichomonas patients, but in 0 previous genital herpes patients. Thus, our findings suggest that herpes is not directly relevant to dyskaryotic change, but that one or more of the human papilloma viruses that cause genital warts may be

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infectivity by Viral Load, S Gene Variants and Demographic Factors, and the Utility of Lateral Flow Devices to Prevent Transmission

BACKGROUND: How SARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies with viral load is incompletely understood. Whether rapid point-of-care antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) detect most potential transmission sources despite imperfect clinical sensitivity is unknown. METHODS: We combined SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact tracing data from England between 01-September-2020 and 28-February-2021. We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate relationships between PCR-confirmed infection in contacts of community-diagnosed cases and index case viral load, S gene target failure (proxy for B.1.1.7 infection), demographics, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, social deprivation, and contact event type. We used LFD performance to simulate the proportion of cases with a PCR-positive contact expected to be detected using one of four LFDs. RESULTS: 231,498/2,474,066(9%) contacts of 1,064,004 index cases tested PCR-positive. PCR-positive results in contacts independently increased with higher case viral loads (lower Ct values) e.g., 11.7%(95%CI 11.5-12.0%) at Ct=15 and 4.5%(4.4-4.6%) at Ct=30. B.1.1.7 infection increased PCR-positive results by ~50%, (e.g. 1.55-fold, 95%CI 1.49-1.61, at Ct=20). PCR-positive results were most common in household contacts (at Ct=20.1, 8.7%[95%CI 8.6-8.9%]), followed by household visitors (7.1%[6.8-7.3%]), contacts at events/activities (5.2%[4.9-5.4%]), work/education (4.6%[4.4-4.8%]), and least common after outdoor contact (2.9%[2.3-3.8%]). Contacts of children were the least likely to test positive, particularly following contact outdoors or at work/education. The most and least sensitive LFDs would detect 89.5%(89.4-89.6%) and 83.0%(82.8-83.1%) of cases with PCR-positive contacts respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies by case viral load, contact event type, and age. Those with high viral loads are the most infectious. B.1.1.7 increased transmission by ~50%. The best performing LFDs detect most infectious cases

Predictors of Visual Acuity Outcomes after Anti–Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Treatment for Macular Edema Secondary to Central Retinal Vein Occlusion

Purpose: To evaluate whether baseline demographic, clinical, and OCT characteristics predict visual acuity (VA) outcomes in patients receiving anti–vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy for macular edema (ME) due to central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO). Design: Post hoc analysis of the randomized noninferiority trial (Lucentis, Eylea, Avastin in CRVO) LEAVO Study from December 12, 2014, to December 16, 2016, carried out across 44 UK National Health Service ophthalmology departments. Participants: Data on 267 participants with a baseline best-corrected mean visual acuity (BCVA) range of 19 to 78 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letter score (approximate Snellen equivalent, 20/32 to 20/320) who had central subfield thickness (CST) ≥ 320 μm on Spectralis OCT (Heidelberg Engineering) were analyzed. Methods: Study participants were randomized to receive repeated intravitreal injections of ranibizumab (0.5 mg/50 μl), aflibercept (2.0 mg/50 μl), or bevacizumab (1.25 mg/50 μl), and a protocol-driven pro re nata re-treatment regimen at 4 to 8 weekly visits was followed up to week 100 after 4 mandated 4-weekly loading injections. Main Outcome Measures: Change in BCVA and percentage of patients gaining ≥ 10 letters and achieving BCVA letter score > 70 letters at 52 and 100 weeks. Results: The analysis was adjusted for treatment effects and confirmed by sensitivity analysis. Age ≥ 75 years is a poor predictor for all 3 visual outcomes. Lower baseline BCVA predicted 10-letter gainers and higher gains in BCVA, although it is a poor predictor of achieving > 70 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters. None of the baseline OCT morphologic characteristics except ellipsoid zone (EZ) integrity influenced any visual outcomes. Both baseline CST and total macular volume showed a nonlinear relation to 10-letter gainers, with CST > 900 μm being a poor prognostic indicator. Baseline CST and macular volume did not predict mean change in BCVA or BCVA > 70 letters at 52 and 100 weeks. The sensitivity analysis conclusions after removing iCRVO were similar. Conclusions: At presentation, younger age, higher baseline BCVA, and a definitely intact subfoveal EZ are predictors of BCVA score > 70 letters at 100 weeks

Topographical Response of Retinal Neovascularization to Aflibercept or Panretinal Photocoagulation in Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy Post Hoc Analysis of the CLARITY Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance Eyes with proliferative diabetic retinopathy have a variable response to treatment with panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) or anti–vascular endothelial growth factor agents. The location of neovascularization (NV) is associated with outcomes (eg, patients with disc NV [NVD] have poorer visual prognosis than those with NV elsewhere [NVE]). Objective To investigate the distribution of NV in patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy and the topographical response of NV to treatment with aflibercept or PRP. Design, Setting, and Participants This post hoc analysis of the phase 2b randomized clinical single-masked multicenter noninferiority Clinical Efficacy and Mechanistic Evaluation of Aflibercept for Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy (CLARITY) trial was conducted from November 1, 2019, to September 1, 2020, among 120 treatment-naive patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy to evaluate the topography of NVD and NVE in 4 quadrants of the retina on color fundus photography at baseline and at 12 and 52 weeks after treatment. Exposures In the CLARITY trial, patients were randomized to receive intravitreal aflibercept (2 mg/0.05 mL at baseline, 4 weeks, and 8 weeks, and as needed from 12 weeks onward) or PRP (completed in initial fractionated sessions and then on an as-needed basis when reviewed every 8 weeks). Main Outcomes and Measures Main outcomes were per-retinal quadrant frequencies of NV at baseline and frequencies of patterns of regression, recurrence, and new occurrence at 12-week and 52-week unmasked follow-up. Results The study included 120 treatment-naive patients (75 men; mean [SD] age, 54.8 [14.6] years) with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (there was a 1:1 ratio of eyes to patients). At baseline, NVD with or without NVE was observed in 42 eyes (35.0%), and NVE only was found in 78 eyes (65.0%); NVE had a predilection for the nasal quadrant (64 [53.3%]). Rates of regression with treatment were higher among eyes with NVE (89 of 102 [87.3%]) compared with eyes with NVD (23 of 43 [53.5%]) by 52 weeks, with NVD being more resistant to either treatment with higher rates of persistence than NVE (20 of 39 [51.3%] vs 29 of 100 [29.0%]). Considering NVE, the regression rate in the temporal quadrant was lowest (32 of 42 [76.2%]). Eyes treated with aflibercept showed higher rates of regression of NVE compared with those treated with PRP (50 of 52 [96.2%] vs 39 of 50 [78.0%]; difference, 18.2% [95% CI, 5.5%-30.8%]; P = .01), but no difference was found for NVD (11 of 17 [64.7%] vs 12 of 26 [46.2%]; difference, 18.6% [95% CI, −11.2% to 48.3%]; P = .23). Conclusions and Relevance This post hoc analysis found that NVD is less frequent but is associated with more resistance to currently available treatments than NVE. Aflibercept was superior to PRP for treating NVE, but neither treatment was particularly effective against NVD by 52 weeks. Future treatments are needed to better target NVD, which has poorer visual prognosis. Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN3220758