HypTrails: A Bayesian Approach for Comparing Hypotheses About Human Trails on the Web

When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web.Comment: Published in the proceedings of WWW'1

International perspectives on psychosocial working conditions, mental health, and stress of dairy farm operators

Dairy farm operators-farmers, workers, and family members-are faced with many demands and stressors in their daily work and these appear to be shared across countries and cultures. Dairy operators experience high psychosocial demands with respect to a hard work and production ethos, economic influences, and social and environmental responsibility. Furthermore, both traditional and industrial farms are highly dependent on external conditions, such as weather, fluctuating markets, and regulations from government authorities. Possible external stressors include disease outbreaks, taxes related to dairy production, and recent negative societal attitudes to farming in general. Dairy farm operators may have very few or no opportunities to influence and control these external conditions, demands, and expectations. High work demands and expectations coupled with low control and lack of social support can lead to a poor psychosocial work environment, with increased stress levels, ill mental health, depression, and, in the worst cases, suicide. Internationally, farmers with ill mental health have different health service options depending on their location. Regardless of location, it is initially the responsibility of the individual farmer and farm family to handle mental health and stress, which can be of short- or long-term duration. This paper reviews the literature on the topics of psychosocial working conditions, mental health, stress, depression, and suicide among dairy farm operators, farm workers, and farm family members in an international perspective

The effect of physical activity on psychological distress, cortisol and obesity: results of the farming fit intervention program

Background:Rural and regional Australians have a higher likelihood of mental illness throughout their lifetime than people living in major cities, although the underlying reasons are not yet well defined. Additionally, rural populations experience more lifestyle associated co-morbidities including obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Research conducted by the National Centre for Farmer Health between 2004 and 2009 revealed a positive correlation between obesity and psychological distress among the farming community. Chronic stress is known to overstimulate the regulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and cortisol secretion which are associated with abdominal adiposity. Increasing physical activity may normalise cortisol secretion and thereby positively impact both physical and mental health. This paper assesses the effects of increasing physical activity on obesity, health behaviors and mental health in Victorian farming men and women.Methods:Farming Fit was a six month quasi-experimental (convenience sample) longitudinal design control-intervention study. Overweight or obese (BMI ?25?kg/m2) farm men (n?=?43) and women (n?=?29) were recruited with demographic, health behaviors, anthropometric, blood pressure and biochemistry data collected at baseline and at a six months. Salivary cortisol and depression anxiety stress scale results were collected at baseline, three and six months. The intervention group (n?=?37) received a personalized exercise program and regular phone coaching to promote physical activity.Results:The intervention group showed significant reductions in body weight and waist circumference. Results indicated that following the six month exercise program, the intervention group were 2.64???0.65?kg lighter (p?<?0.001), had reduced waist circumference by 2.01???0.86?cm (p?=?0.02) and BMI by 0.97???0.22?kg/m2 (p?<?0.001) relative to the control group.Conclusion:Increasing physical activity altered measures of obesity in farm men and women but did not affect mental health measures or cortisol secretion levels

The RAPTOR Experiment: A System for Monitoring the Optical Sky in Real Time

The Rapid Telescopes for Optical Response (RAPTOR) experiment is a spatially distributed system of autonomous robotic telescopes that is designed to monitor the sky for optical transients. The core of the system is composed of two telescope arrays, separated by 38 kilometers, that stereoscopically view the same 1500 square-degree field with a wide-field imaging array and a central 4 square-degree field with a more sensitive narrow-field "fovea" imager. Coupled to each telescope array is a real-time data analysis pipeline that is designed to identify interesting transients on timescales of seconds and, when a celestial transient is identified, to command the rapidly slewing robotic mounts to point the narrow-field ``fovea'' imagers at the transient. The two narrow-field telescopes then image the transient with higher spatial resolution and at a faster cadence to gather light curve information. Each "fovea" camera also images the transient through a different filter to provide color information. This stereoscopic monitoring array is supplemented by a rapidly slewing telescope with a low resolution spectrograph for follow-up observations of transients and a sky patrol telescope that nightly monitors about 10,000 square-degrees for variations, with timescales of a day or longer, to a depth about 100 times fainter. In addition to searching for fast transients, we will use the data stream from RAPTOR as a real-time sentinel for recognizing important variations in known sources. Altogether, the RAPTOR project aims to construct a new type of system for discovery in optical astronomy--one that explores the time domain by "mining the sky in real time".Comment: 11 pages, To appear in the Proceedings of the SPIE, Volume 484

The Alcohol Intervention Training Program (AITP): A response to alcohol misuse in the farming community

Background Farm men and women in Australia have higher levels of problematic alcohol use than their urban counterparts and experience elevated health risks associated with excessive alcohol consumption. The Sustainable Farm Families (SFF) program has worked successfully with farm men and women to address health, well- being and safety and has identified that further research and training is required to understand and address alcohol misuse behaviours. This project will add an innovative component to the program by training health professionals working with farm men and women to discuss and respond to alcohol-related physical and mental health problems. Methods/Design A mixed method design with multi-level evaluation will be implemented following the development and delivery of a training program (The Alcohol Intervention Training Program {AITP}) for Sustainable Farm Families health professionals. Pre-, post- and follow-up surveys will be used to assess both the impact of the training on the knowledge, confidence and skills of the health professionals to work with alcohol misuse and associated problems, and the impact of the training on the attitudes, behaviour and mental health of farm men and women who participate in the SFF project. Evaluations will take a range of forms including self-rated outcome measures and interviews. Discussion The success of this project will enhance the health and well-being of a critical population, the farm men and women of Australia, by producing an evidence-based strategy to assist them to adopt more positive alcohol-related behaviours that will lead to better physical and mental health

Direct measurements of OH and other product yields from the HO2 + CH3C(O)O2 reaction

The reaction CH3C(O)O2 + HO2 → CH3C(O)OOH+O2 (Reaction R5a), CH3C(O)OH+O3 (Reaction R5b), CH3+CO2+OH+O2 (Reaction R5c) was studied in a series of experiments conducted at 1000 mbar and (293±2)K in the HIRAC simulation chamber. For the first time, products, (CH3C(O)OOH, CH3C(O)OH, O3 and OH) from all three branching pathways of the reaction have been detected directly and simultaneously. Measurements of radical precursors (CH3OH, CH3CHO), HO2 and some secondary products HCHO and HCOOH further constrained the system. Fitting a comprehensive model to the experimental data, obtained over a range of conditions, determined the branching ratios α(R5a) = 0.37±0.10, α(R5b) =0.12±0.04 and α(R5c) =0.51±0.12 (errors at 2σ level). Improved measurement/model agreement was achieved using k(R5) =(2.4±0.4)×10-11 cm3 molecule-1 s-1, which is within the large uncertainty of the current IUPAC and JPL recommended rate coefficients for the title reaction. The rate coefficient and branching ratios are in good agreement with a recent study performed by Groß et al. (2014b); taken together, these two studies show that the rate of OH regeneration through Reaction (R5) is more rapid than previously thought. GEOS-Chem has been used to assess the implications of the revised rate coefficients and branching ratios; the modelling shows an enhancement of up to 5% in OH concentrations in tropical rainforest areas and increases of up to 10% at altitudes of 6-8 km above the equator, compared to calculations based on the IUPAC recommended rate coefficient and yield. The enhanced rate of acetylperoxy consumption significantly reduces PAN in remote regions (up to 30 %) with commensurate reductions in background NOx

Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers

Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here, we present a global Water Tower Index, which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socio-economic changes. We conclude that the most important water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountain areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world’s most important and vulnerable water towers