1,336 research outputs found

    Robust Inference of Trees

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    This paper is concerned with the reliable inference of optimal tree-approximations to the dependency structure of an unknown distribution generating data. The traditional approach to the problem measures the dependency strength between random variables by the index called mutual information. In this paper reliability is achieved by Walley's imprecise Dirichlet model, which generalizes Bayesian learning with Dirichlet priors. Adopting the imprecise Dirichlet model results in posterior interval expectation for mutual information, and in a set of plausible trees consistent with the data. Reliable inference about the actual tree is achieved by focusing on the substructure common to all the plausible trees. We develop an exact algorithm that infers the substructure in time O(m^4), m being the number of random variables. The new algorithm is applied to a set of data sampled from a known distribution. The method is shown to reliably infer edges of the actual tree even when the data are very scarce, unlike the traditional approach. Finally, we provide lower and upper credibility limits for mutual information under the imprecise Dirichlet model. These enable the previous developments to be extended to a full inferential method for trees.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

    Patterns of antihypertensive prescribing, discontinuation and switching among a Hong Kong Chinese population from over one million prescriptions

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    Hypertension is an alarming public health problem among Chinese. The present study evaluated the prescribing patterns, discontinuation and switching profiles of antihypertensive agents and their associated factors in one Hong Kong Chinese population. Data were retrieved from computerized records for patients prescribed anti-hypertensive agents in government primary care clinics of Hong Kong from January, 2004 to June, 2007. A total of 1,069,836 antihypertensive drug visits, representing 67,028 patients, were analyzed. The most commonly prescribed drugs were Calcium Channel Blockers (CCBs) (49%), b-Blockers (BBs) (46%) and Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors (ACEIs) (19%). Thiazide diuretic prescribing was low (13%) and on the decline (14% in 2004 to 12% in 2007). Prescribing of ACEIs was rising (16% in 2004 to 23% in 2007). Patients’ age, gender, and socio-economic status were independent predictors of class of anti-hypertensive prescribed but explained less than 3.5% of the variation observed. Drug discontinuation was highest for BBs (21%) and lowest for CCBs (12%). The high rates of discontinuation in BBs remained apparent after controlling for confounding variables. Switching was less common than discontinuation and was most likely with thiazide diuretics. To summarize, prescribing of CCBs and BBs were high and that of thiazide diuretics particularly low in this Chinese population when compared with international trends. CCBs may be a particularly favorable antihypertensive treatment in Chinese, given the high discontinuation rates of BBs and international guidelines advising against the use of BBs as first-line therapy. The low use of thiazide diuretics warrants further clinical and cost effectiveness studies among Chinese

    Comminution limit (CL) of particles and possible implications for pumped storage reservoirs

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    Comminution (fragmentation) of solid particles is important in a range of technologies. An interesting effect is the so-called comminution limit (CL), which is effectively a brittle/ductile transition. Above the CL particles fail by fracture. However, as particle size decreases the amount of stored energy in the particle also decreases and eventually there is no longer sufficient stored energy in the particle to propagate a crack and the particle flows plastically. The CL depends on the hardness, H, and the toughness, K (Ic). In mountainous countries, two-reservoir systems are used to generate and store power. When power is needed, water runs through the turbines to the lower reservoir. If there is excess power, water is pumped to the upper reservoir. This recycling of liquid through the turbines can break up entrained particles. Previous work in this area has been primarily concerned with sedimentation of the particles. The research reported in this paper uses the CL to calculate the particle sizes produced for different materials including different rock types. Interestingly, the particle sizes predicted mainly fall in the range where they sediment near the upper water surface. In such cases, the surface layers become opaque to sunlight and plant and animal life will be affected. It is suggested that the CL provides additional information which would assist research in this area. Where H and K (Ic) are not known for a particular rock type they should be measured

    Governed by history: Institutional analysis of a contested biofuel innovation system in Tanzania

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    Initially hailed as a miracle crop for biofuel production, Jatropha has recently attracted criticism for competing with food production, causing adverse biodiversity impacts, and jeopardizing land access by rural populations in tropical countries. This paper analyzes the contested development of Jatropha biofuel sector in Tanzania by anchoring two new concepts of ‘organizational models’ and ‘institutional arrangements’ to the sectoral systems of innovation perspective. The notion of ‘organizational models’ brings into relief the heterogeneity of actors in an innovation system and the ways in which the actors form networks, within and across national borders, to organize innovative activities. The concept of ‘institutional arrangements’ refers to the ensemble of formal and informal institutions assembled during Tanzania’s colonial and post-colonial eras, which directly govern innovative activities in specific organizational models. Based on a location-specific and historically-grounded institutional analysis within the innovation system framework, implications are drawn for the future development of Tanzania’s Jatropha sector including its links with European markets and for the regulation of ‘next-generation’ biofuels

    Strong laws of large numbers for sub-linear expectations

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    We investigate three kinds of strong laws of large numbers for capacities with a new notion of independently and identically distributed (IID) random variables for sub-linear expectations initiated by Peng. It turns out that these theorems are natural and fairly neat extensions of the classical Kolmogorov's strong law of large numbers to the case where probability measures are no longer additive. An important feature of these strong laws of large numbers is to provide a frequentist perspective on capacities.Comment: 10 page

    Estimating Probability of Failure of a Complex System Based on Inexact Information about Subsystems and Components, with Potential Applications to Aircraft Maintenance

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    In many real-life applications (e.g., in aircraft maintenance), we need to estimate the probability of failure of a complex system (such as an aircraft as a whole or one of its subsystems). Complex systems are usually built with redundancy allowing them to withstand the failure of a small number of components. In this paper, we assume that we know the structure of the system, and, as a result, for each possible set of failed components, we can tell whether this set will lead to a system failure. For each component A, we know the probability P(A) of its failure with some uncertainty: e.g., we know the lower and upper bounds P(A) and P(A) for this probability. Usually, it is assumed that failures of different components are independent events. Our objective is to use all this information to estimate the probability of failure of the entire the complex system. In this paper, we describe several methods for solving this problem, including a new efficient method for such estimation based on Cauchy deviates
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