Algorithms of parametric estimation of polynomial trend models of time series on discrete transforms

A forecasting of economic and financial indicators is the actual problem of strategic management. A time series forecasting often uses simple econometric models. The trend and seasonal trend models are among the popular models for forecasting. In some cases researchers need to analyze vector time series. The traditional algorithms of estimating time series models may be associated with a sufficiently high computational complexity. We propose the applications of oblique discrete Walsh transform to the synthesis of estimation algorithms of polynomial trend models' parameters of time series. Algorithms evaluate polynomial models that not above the third degree in a non-orthogonal basis of discrete exponential functions and orthogonal basis of discrete Chebyshev polynomials. The advantage of these algorithms is the computational efficiency, which associated with a significant reduction of the multiplicative complexity of algorithms in comparing with direct estimation of polynomial trend models

Algorithms of quasi evaluation of polynomial trend of the digital signals based on oblique discrete walsh transformations

© 2016 IEEE.In this article, we consider applications of oblique discrete Walsh transformation algorithms at synthesizing a quasi-evaluation of polynomial trend models of digital signals. We consider peculiarities of computational complexity of the proposed algorithms and statistical properties of the estimated parameters of the polynomial trend in degree higher than the third level. The advantages of these algorithms are low multiplicative complexity and relative simplicity of the hardware implementation of binary arithmetic means

Short-Term Fuzzy Forecasting of Brent Oil Prices

© 2015, Asian Social Science. All rights reserved. Oil prices movements is very important macroeconomic factor for decision making. The accuracy of results for different types of oil brands depends on models and algorithms. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of using fuzzy sets to forecast daily Brent oil prices. It also contains possible modifications of the proposed method and in comparison with basic methods. The results suggest that Brent oil prices series have short memory because using information about last 2-days prices shows better forecast accuracy. Forecasting based on fixed universe of discourse shows better efficiency and it also proves that oil prices series has short memory. Adding the probability of switching between linguistic terms in defuzzification function could be used to improve accuracy of predictions. Also the approach can take into consideration expert’s opinion about direction of future variation. The effective expert’s work can reduce errors of forecast from 1.5% till 0.76%. But this modification can be used if experts correctly guess the direction of the change in trend in eight out of ten cases and more. The reasonable obtained results can be used by analysts dealing with the prediction of oil prices

Foundation of psychological support in the emotional experience of professional identity crisis by teachers

The background of the researched problem is determined by the psychological and pedagogical science’s and practice’s need to supplement the ideas about teachers’ professional development and about the course of their getting through the emotional experience due to difficulties of this process; as a result, it is necessary to study psychological foundations of building of psychological support programs in the process of school teachers’ getting through a professional crisis under conditions of permanent changes in the educational system. The main approach to studying this problem is the interview and phenomenological method that allows to identify and justify psychological basis of building of teacher support programs. The theoretical analysis allows to identify the nature of the support process, its goals and objectives, and to justify the methodological basis of the support program realization. The empiric results demonstrated that the process of teachers getting through the professional identity crisis goes hand in hand with the value-semantic transformation of a person and with “launching” of reflexive processes which, in turn, justifies resorting to them as to the psychological basis of building of teacher support programs. The research results expand the understanding of the nature of professional identity crisis phenomenon, the process of coming through it and supplement the data of the basis of building of teacher support programs. © 2018 by the authors

Specifics of defense and coping behavior among teachers experiencing a professional identity crisis

The issues addressed in the article are of particular relevance due to the necessity to provide research background for creating the system of psychological and pedagogical support for the professional development of teachers in the conditions of permanent changes in the system of education. The aim of the article is to describe specific interrelations between the reflection and the parameters of the teacher's axiological sphere (in particular, life-purpose orientations). The following research methods were used: theoretical analysis of psycholog-ical and educational literature, phenomenological method, questionnaires, and methods of mathematical and statistical data processing (descriptive statistics, comparative analysis (the Mann-Whitney U test). The results of the theoretical and empirical research provide ade-quate grounds for the conclusion that there is a definite interrelation between the parameters of reflection and the parameters of life-purpose orientations. It is proved that in the conditions of a professional identity crisis the teachers experience a significant reduction in the levels of life-purpose orientations, which in turn leads to intensification of reflection processes. At the same time, the obtained results suggest that the teachers can successfully overcome their professional crisis in case of formation of the cognitive component of the biographical reflection, aimed at the analysis of actions and means of understanding and organizing their life events. Implications of the research results. The research results expand our understanding of the essence and emotional experience of the professional identity crisis. They can be used in the designing the process of psychological support for the activities and professional development of teachers. © 2018 Authors

PSYCHOLOGICAL READINESS OF SECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION TEACHERS FOR MASTERING NEW ACTIVITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF PROFESSIONAL REORIENTATION

Introduction. In the context of fundamental changes which have occurred in the last decades in the world of professions and transition from monoprofessionalism to poly-professionalism, a modern man needs to have an ability to freely navigate the modern labour market, to quickly diversify contents and quality of the professional activity, and, if thought appropriate, to change an occupation without difficulty. Nowadays, the requirements for the teachers of vocational training are designed in a completely different way to provide high-quality lifelong learning. The aim of the research is to reveal the psychological readiness of teachers of vocational school for the development of new types of learning activities in the conditions of a professional reorientation. Methodology and research methods. The methodological framework of the present research is based on conceptual provisions of the personal-focused, subject, competency-based and system approaches to vocational education, as well as theories of the psychology of abilities and organization of continuing the professional education of adults. General scientific methods such as analysis, synthesis, specification and generalization were applied. Techniques of psychological and pedagogical observation and questionnaire were used at the diagnostic phase of the study as the leading ones.Results and scientific novelty. The concepts of “professionalization”, “professional self-determination”, “transprofessional competencies” and “psycho-pedagogical assistance” are clarified. It is stated that under the increasingly complex socio-cultural and professional environment there is the need for pedagogical personnel capable to carry out continuing training and retraining of mid-level professionals for the real sector of the economy and the social sphere in compliance with the international standards and advanced technologies. Based on the content of scientific sources, a list of systematically important transprofessional competencies to provide psychological readiness of teachers of vocational school for new kinds of activities is drawn up. Results of a diagnostic questioning are described; the respondents were teachers and employees of methodical offices of vocational-oriented education of various colleges of Yekaterinburg and Novouralsk who do not have a basic pedagogical education. Using the processing of the obtained data, it is established that teachers, on the one hand, understand the essence and objectives of their work; on the other, they can not independently respond to their personal needs to reevaluate own professional position due to the use of outdated methods and stereotypic ways of training. Conclusions are drawn that most of the interviewed teachers have no ability to conduct overtime professional activity that enables to carry a standard teaching load; a considerable part of teachers need acquisition of additional pedagogical and transprofessional competencies. The authors outlined the proposal to develop a combinatory technology of psycho-pedagogical support for teachers of vocational schools to improve the current situation. The functionality of this technology, its tasks, structural components, possible methods and estimated effects of its implementation in practice of the SPE (Secondary Professional Education) system are noted. Practical significance. The materials of the present paper can be useful for managerial staff, psychologists and training specialists of the SPE system who are engaged in the issues of teacher professional development. Введение. В связи с кардинальными переменами, которые происходят в последнее десятилетия в мире профессий, переходом от монопрофессионализма к полипрофессионализму современному человеку нужно обладать способностью свободно ориентироваться на рынке труда, умением оперативно диверсифицировать содержание и качество своей профессиональной деятельности, а при необходимости радикально менять род занятий. Становятся иными и требования к педагогам профессиональной подготовки, призванным обеспечить качественное обучение и переобучение граждан в течение всей жизни. Цель исследования, изложенного в данной статье, – выявление психологической готовности педагогов профессиональной школы к освоению новых видов деятельности в условиях профессиональной реориентации. Методология и методики. Методологическую основу работы составили концептуальные положения личностно-ориентированного, субъектного, компетентностного и системного подходов к профессиональному обучению, а также теорий психологии способностей и организации непрерывного профессионального образования взрослых. В процессе изыскания применялись общенаучные методы – анализ, синтез, конкретизация и обобщение. На констатирующем этапе исследования в качестве ведущих методик использовались психолого-педагогическое наблюдение и анкетный опрос. Результаты и научная новизна. Уточнены понятия «профессионализация», «профессиональное самоопределение» «транспрофессиональные компетенции» и «психолого-педагогическое содействие». Констатируется усиливающаяся на фоне непрестанно усложняющейся социокультурной и профессиональной среды потребность в педагогических кадрах, способных осуществлять непрерывную подготовку и переобучение рабочих и специалистов среднего звена для реального сектора экономики и социальной сферы в соответствии с мировыми стандартами и передовыми технологиями. С опорой на содержание научных источников составлен перечень системообразующих транспрофессиональных компетенций, обеспечивающих психологическую готовность педагогов профессиональной школы к новым видам деятельности. Описаны результаты диагностического анкетирования, участниками которого были не имеющие базового педагогического образования преподаватели и работники методических отделений профориентации различных колледжей Екатеринбурга и Новоуральска. На основе обработки полученных данных установлено, что педагоги, с одной стороны, понимают суть и задачи своей работы, с другой – не могут самостоятельно рефлексировать личные потребности в пересмотре собственной профессиональной позиции, чем, очевидно, объясняется использование ими устаревших и стереотипных способов и методов обучения. Сделаны выводы о том, что у большинства опрошенных преподавателей отсутствует способность к осуществлению сверхнормативной профессиональной деятельности, позволяющая выдерживать активную учебную нагрузку; значительная часть из них нуждается в приобретении дополнительных педагогических и транспрофессиональных компетенций. Для исправления ситуации предлагается разработать комбинаторную технологию психолого-педагогического сопровождения педагогов профессиональной школы. Обозначены функционал данной технологии, ее задачи, структурные компоненты, возможные методы и предполагаемые эффекты от внедрения в практику системы СПО (среднего профессионального образования). Практическая значимость. Материалы публикации могут быть полезны руководителям, психологам и методистам организаций и подразделений системы СПО, занимающимся вопросами повышения педагогической квалификации.

BUILDING A DIGITAL TWIN OF MOUSE MOTOR CORTEX NEURONS

The approach used in the study allows us to consider the neuronal activity of the mouse motor cortex nerve cell as a desire for some dynamic balance, which is interpreted as a calm relaxed mode

INVESTIGATION OF THE DNA MOLECULE RADIATION RESISTANCE BY SEMICLASSICAL SIMULATION

Radiation leads to the death of cells, namely the DNA molecules in them. The wave func-tions are considered for each element that is in the compound of the DNA molecule. Next, the DNA helix is modeled. Then, a part of the spiral is destroyed by radiation, and the result of cell death is examined

Modeling the Electrical Activity of Nerve Cells Using the Predetermined Equilibrium Driven Dynamics Method

The brain is a large neural network, where almost all neurons are used to perform any action. Using the method of predetermined equilibrium driven dynamics, an attempt is made to reconstruct the electrical activity of nerve cells

Photochemistry of Furyl- and Thienyldiazomethanes: Spectroscopic Characterization of Triplet 3-Thienylcarbene

Photolysis (λ \u3e 543 nm) of 3-thienyldiazomethane (1), matrix isolated in Ar or N2 at 10 K, yields triplet 3-thienylcarbene (13) and α-thial-methylenecyclopropene (9). Carbene 13 was characterized by IR, UV/vis, and EPR spectroscopy. The conformational isomers of 3-thienylcarbene (s-E and s-Z) exhibit an unusually large difference in zero-field splitting parameters in the triplet EPR spectrum (|D/hc| = 0.508 cm–1, |E/hc| = 0.0554 cm–1; |D/hc| = 0.579 cm–1, |E/hc| = 0.0315 cm–1). Natural Bond Orbital (NBO) calculations reveal substantially differing spin densities in the 3-thienyl ring at the positions adjacent to the carbene center, which is one factor contributing to the large difference in D values. NBO calculations also reveal a stabilizing interaction between the sp orbital of the carbene carbon in the s-Z rotamer of 13 and the antibonding σ orbital between sulfur and the neighboring carbon—an interaction that is not observed in the s-E rotamer of 13. In contrast to the EPR spectra, the electronic absorption spectra of the rotamers of triplet 3-thienylcarbene (13) are indistinguishable under our experimental conditions. The carbene exhibits a weak electronic absorption in the visible spectrum (λmax = 467 nm) that is characteristic of triplet arylcarbenes. Although studies of 2-thienyldiazomethane (2), 3-furyldiazomethane (3), or 2-furyldiazomethane (4) provided further insight into the photochemical interconversions among C5H4S or C5H4O isomers, these studies did not lead to the spectroscopic detection of the corresponding triplet carbenes (2-thienylcarbene (11), 3-furylcarbene (23), or 2-furylcarbene (22), respectively)