Censored regression techniques for credit scoring

This thesis investigates the use of newly-developed survival analysis tools for credit scoring. Credit scoring techniques are currently used by financial institutions to estimate the probability of a customer defaulting on a loan by a predetermined time in the future. While a number of classification techniques are currently used, banks are now becoming more concerned with estimating the lifetime of the loan rather than just the probability of default. Difficulties arise when using standard statistical techniques due to the presence of censoring in the data. Survival analysis, originating from medical and engineering fields, is an area of statistics that typically deals with censored lifetime data. The theoretical developments in this thesis revolve around linear regression for censored data, in particular the Buckley-James method. The Buckley-James method is analogous to linear regression and gives estimates of the mean expected lifetime given a set of explanatory variables. The first development is a measure of fit for censored regression, similar to the classical r-squared of linear regression. Next, the variable-reduction technique of stepwise selection is extended to the Buckley-James method. For the last development, the Buckley-James algorithm is altered to incorporate non-linear regression methods such as neural networks and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). MARS shows promise in terms of predictive power and interpretability in both simulation and empirical studies. The practical section of the thesis involves using the new techniques to predict the time to default and time to repayment of unsecured personal loans from a database obtained from a major Australian bank. The analyses are unique, being the first published work on applying Buckley-James and related methods to a large-scale financial database

The OARSI histopathology initiative – recommendations for histological assessments of osteoarthritis in the rat

SummaryObjectiveDuring the development of disease-modifying osteoarthritis (OA) drugs, rat models of OA are frequently used for a first assessment of in vivo efficacy. The most efficacious compound in the rat model may then be tested in a larger animal model before entering human trials. The aim of this study was to describe a histologic scoring system for use in different models of OA in rats that allows standardization and comparison of results obtained by different investigators.MethodsThe experience of the authors with current scoring systems and the range of lesions observed in rat and human OA studies were considered in recommending this common paradigm for rat histologic scoring. Considerations were made for reproducibility and ease of use for new scorers. Additional scoring paradigms may be employed to further identify specific effects of some disease-modifying drugs.ResultsAlthough the described scoring system is more complex than the modified Mankin scores, which are recommended for some other species, the reliability study showed that it is easily understood and can be reproducibly used, even by inexperienced scorers.ConclusionsThe scoring paradigm described here has been found to be sufficiently sensitive to discriminate between treatments and to have high reproducibility. Therefore we recommend its use for evaluation of different rat OA models as well as assessment of disease-modifying effects of treatments in these models

Effectiveness of the ADEC as a level 2 screening test for young children with suspected autism spectrum disorders in a clinical setting

Background The Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) is a clinician-administered, Level 2 screening tool. A retrospective file audit was used to investigate its clinical effectiveness. Method Toddlers referred to an Australian child development service between 2008 and 2010 (N?=?53, M age?=?32.2 months) were screened with the ADEC. Their medical records were reviewed in 2013 when their mean age was 74.5 months, and the original ADEC screening results were compared with later diagnostic outcomes. Results The ADEC had good sensitivity (87.5%) and moderate specificity (62%). Three behaviours predicted autism spectrum disorders (ASDs): response to name, gaze switching, and gaze monitoring (p???.001). Conclusions The ADEC shows promise as a screening tool that can discriminate between young children with ASDs and those who have specific communication disorders or developmental delays that persist into middle childhood but who do not meet the criteria for ASDs

Microwave saturation of the Rydberg states of electrons on helium

We present measurements of the resonant microwave excitation of the Rydberg energy levels of surface state electrons on superfluid helium. The temperature dependent linewidth agrees well with theoretical predictions and is very small below 300 mK. Absorption saturation and power broadening were observed as the fraction of electrons in the first excited state was increased to 0.49, close to the thermal excitation limit of 0.5. The Rabi frequency was determined as a function of microwave power. The high values of the ratio of the Rabi frequency to linewidth confirm this system as an excellent candidate for creating qubits.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Evaluation of an image analysis device (APAS) for screening urine cultures

While advancements have been made in some areas of pathology with diagnostic materials being screened using image analysis technologies, the reporting of cultures from agar plates remains a manual process. We compared the results for 2,163 urine cultures read by a reference panel of microbiologists, by the routine laboratory process, and by an automated plate reading system, APAS (LBT Innovations Ltd., South Australia). APAS detected colonies with a sensitivity of 99.1% and a specificity of 99.3% on blood agar, while on MacConkey agar, the colony detection sensitivity was 99.4% with a specificity of 99.3%. The device's ability to enumerate growth had an accuracy of 89.2%, and the morphological identification of colonies showed a high level of performance for the colony types typical of Escherichia coli and other enteric bacilli. On blood agar, lactose-fermenting colonies were morphologically identified with a sensitivity of 98.9%, while on MacConkey agar they were identified with a sensitivity of 99.2%. In this first clinical evaluation, APAS demonstrated high performance in the detection, enumeration, and colony classification of isolates compared with that for conventional plate-reading methods. The device found all cases reported by the laboratory and detected the most commonly encountered organisms found in urinary tract infections.John Glasson, Rhys Hill, Michael Summerford, Steven Gigli

5,5′-Bis[(trimethyl­silyl)meth­yl]-2,2′-bipyridine

The mol­ecule of the title compound, C18H28N2Si2, occupies a special position on an inversion centre. The Si—CH2—C(ipso) plane is approximately orthogonal to the plane of the pyridine rings, the corresponding dihedral angle being 82.0 (2)°

Intersubband plasmons in quasi-one-dimensional electron systems on a liquid helium surface

The collective excitation spectra are studied for a multisubband quasi-one-dimensional electron gas on the surface of liquid helium. Different intersubband plasmon modes are identified by calculating the spectral weight function of the electron gas within a 12 subband model. Strong intersubband coupling and depolarization shifts are found. When the plasmon energy is close to the energy differences between two subbands, Landau damping in this finite temperature system leads to plasmon gaps at small wavevectors.Comment: To be published as a Rapid Communication in Phys. Rev.

Cellular interactions with polystyrene nanoplastics-The role of particle size and protein corona.

Plastic waste is ubiquitously spread across the world and its smaller analogs-microplastics and nanoplastics-raise particular health concerns. While biological impacts of microplastics and nanoplastics have been actively studied, the chemical and biological bases for the adverse effects are sought after. This work explores contributory factors by combining results from in vitro and model mammalian membrane experimentation to assess the outcome of cell/nanoplastic interactions in molecular detail, inspecting the individual contribution of nanoplastics and different types of protein coronae. The in vitro study showed mild cytotoxicity and cellular uptake of polystyrene (PS) nanoplastics, with no clear trend based on nanoplastic size (20 and 200 nm) or surface charge. In contrast, a nanoplastic size-dependency on bilayer disruption was observed in the model system. This suggests that membrane disruption resulting from direct interaction with PS nanoplastics has little correlation with cytotoxicity. Furthermore, the level of bilayer disruption was found to be limited to the hydrophilic headgroup, indicating that transmembrane diffusion was an unlikely pathway for cellular uptake-endocytosis is the viable mechanism. In rare cases, small PS nanoplastics (20 nm) were found in the vicinity of chromosomes without a nuclear membrane surrounding them; however, this was not observed for larger PS nanoplastics (200 nm). We hypothesize that the nanoplastics can interact with chromosomes prior to nuclear membrane formation. Overall, precoating PS particles with protein coronae reduced the cytotoxicity, irrespective of the corona type. When comparing the two types, the extent of reduction was more apparent with soft than hard corona