On the Influence of ENSO on Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Using the extended ERA5 reanalysis and three state-of-the-art models, this study explores how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the total frequency, seasonal cycle and preconditioning of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Reanalysis data shows that in the last seven decades, winters with SSWs were more common than winters without, regardless El Niño (EN) or La Niña (LN) occurrence or the ENSO/SSW definitions. In agreement with previous studies, our models tend to simulate a linear ENSO-SSW relationship, with more SSWs for EN, around mid-winter (January–February) as in reanalysis, and less for LN when compared to neutral conditions. Independently of ENSO, the main tropospheric precursor of SSWs appears to be an anomalous wave-like pattern over Eurasia, but it is dominated by wavenumber 1 (WN1) for EN and shows an enhanced wavenumber 2 (WN2) for LN. The differences in this Eurasian wave pattern, which is largely internally generated, emerge from the distinct configuration of the background, stationary wave pattern induced by ENSO in the North Pacific, favoring a stronger WN1 (WN2) component during EN (LN). Our results suggest that the ENSO-forced signal relies on modulating the seasonal-mean polar vortex strength, becoming weaker and more displaced (stronger and more stable) for EN (LN), while ENSO-unforced wave activity represents the ultimate trigger of SSWs. This supports the view that ENSO and SSWs are distinct sources of variability of the winter atmospheric circulation operating at different time-scales and may reconcile previous findings in this context

Clean optical spectrum of the radio jet of 3C 120

We present integral field spectroscopy (IFS) of the central region of 3C 120. We have modeled the nuclear and host galaxy 3D spectra using techniques normally applied to imaging, decoupling both components, and obtained a residual datacube. Using this residual datacube, we detected the extended emission line region associated with the radio jet. We obtained, for the first time, a clean spectrum of this region and found compelling evidences of a jet-cloud interaction. The jet compresses and splits the gas cloud which is ionized by the AGN and/or by the strong local UV photon field generated by a shock process. We cannot confirm the detection of an extended emission line region associated with the counter-jet reported by Axon (1989).Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publishing in Ap

Inferring Energy Bounds via Static Program Analysis and Evolutionary Modeling of Basic Blocks

The ever increasing number and complexity of energy-bound devices (such as the ones used in Internet of Things applications, smart phones, and mission critical systems) pose an important challenge on techniques to optimize their energy consumption and to verify that they will perform their function within the available energy budget. In this work we address this challenge from the software point of view and propose a novel parametric approach to estimating tight bounds on the energy consumed by program executions that are practical for their application to energy verification and optimization. Our approach divides a program into basic (branchless) blocks and estimates the maximal and minimal energy consumption for each block using an evolutionary algorithm. Then it combines the obtained values according to the program control flow, using static analysis, to infer functions that give both upper and lower bounds on the energy consumption of the whole program and its procedures as functions on input data sizes. We have tested our approach on (C-like) embedded programs running on the XMOS hardware platform. However, our method is general enough to be applied to other microprocessor architectures and programming languages. The bounds obtained by our prototype implementation can be tight while remaining on the safe side of budgets in practice, as shown by our experimental evaluation.Comment: Pre-proceedings paper presented at the 27th International Symposium on Logic-Based Program Synthesis and Transformation (LOPSTR 2017), Namur, Belgium, 10-12 October 2017 (arXiv:1708.07854). Improved version of the one presented at the HIP3ES 2016 workshop (v1): more experimental results (added benchmark to Table 1, added figure for new benchmark, added Table 3), improved Fig. 1, added Fig.

Integral Field Spectroscopy of the Central Regions of 3C 120: Evidence of a Past Merging Event

IFS combined with HST WFPC imaging were used to characterize the central regions of the Seyfert 1 radio galaxy 3C 120. We carried out the analysis of the data, deriving intensity maps of different emission lines and the continua at different wavelengths from the observed spectra. Applying a 2D modeling to the HST images we decoupled the nucleus and the host galaxy, and analyzed the host morphology. The host is a highly distorted bulge dominated galaxy, rich in substructures. We developed a new technique to model the IFS data extending the 2D modeling. Using this technique we separated the Seyfert nucleus and the host galaxy spectra, and derived a residual data cube with spectral and spatial information of the different structures in 3C 120. Three continuum-dominated structures (named A, B, and C) and other three extended emission line regions (EELRs, named E1, E2 and E3) are found in 3C 120 which does not follow the general behavior of a bulge dominated galaxy. We also found shells in the central kpc that may be remnants of a past merging event in this galaxy. The origin of E1 is most probably due to the interaction of the radio-jet of 3C 120 with the intergalactic medium. Structures A, B, and the shell at the southeast of the nucleus seem to correspond to a larger morphological clumpy structure that may be a tidal tail, consequence of the past merging event. We found a bright EELR (E2) in the innermost part of this tidal tail, nearby the nucleus, which shows a high ionization level. The kinematics of the E2 region and its connection to the tidal tail suggest that the tail has channeled gas from the outer regions to the center.Comment: 55 pages, 18 figures and 5 tables Accepted by AP

Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere

The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO)