Emulating IPCC AR4 atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models for projecting global-mean, hemispheric and land/ocean temperatures: MAGICC 6.0

International audienceCurrent scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, key radiative forcings have not been considered or standardized in the majority of AOGCMs integrations and carbon cycle runs. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emission pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version of MAGICC (6.0) is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCM and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC 6.0 are provided. Previous MAGICC versions and emulations shown in IPCC AR4 (WG1, Fig. 10.26, page 803) yielded, in average, a 10% larger global-mean temperature increase over the 21st century compared to the AOGCMs. The reasons for this difference are discussed. The emulations presented here using MAGICC 6.0 match the mean AOGCM responses to within 2.2% for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill is due to: the comparison on a "like-with-like" basis using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings, a new calibration procedure, as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The mean diagnosed effective climate sensitivities of the AOGCMs is 2.88°C, about 0.33°C cooler than the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. Finally, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emission scenarios and some lower mitigation pathways

Differences between <i>Trypanosoma brucei gambiense</i> groups 1 and 2 in their resistance to killing by Trypanolytic factor 1

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; The three sub-species of &lt;i&gt;Trypanosoma brucei&lt;/i&gt; are important pathogens of sub-Saharan Africa. &lt;i&gt;T. b. brucei&lt;/i&gt; is unable to infect humans due to sensitivity to trypanosome lytic factors (TLF) 1 and 2 found in human serum. &lt;i&gt;T. b. rhodesiense&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; are able to resist lysis by TLF. There are two distinct sub-groups of &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; that differ genetically and by human serum resistance phenotypes. Group 1 &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; have an invariant phenotype whereas group 2 show variable resistance. Previous data indicated that group 1 &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; are resistant to TLF-1 due in-part to reduced uptake of TLF-1 mediated by reduced expression of the TLF-1 receptor (the haptoglobin-hemoglobin receptor (&lt;i&gt;HpHbR&lt;/i&gt;)) gene. Here we investigate if this is also true in group 2 parasites.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Methodology:&lt;/b&gt; Isogenic resistant and sensitive group 2 &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; were derived and compared to other T. brucei parasites. Both resistant and sensitive lines express the &lt;i&gt;HpHbR&lt;/i&gt; gene at similar levels and internalized fluorescently labeled TLF-1 similar fashion to &lt;i&gt;T. b. brucei&lt;/i&gt;. Both resistant and sensitive group 2, as well as group 1 &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt;, internalize recombinant APOL1, but only sensitive group 2 parasites are lysed.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; Our data indicate that, despite group 1 &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; avoiding TLF-1, it is resistant to the main lytic component, APOL1. Similarly group 2 &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; is innately resistant to APOL1, which could be based on the same mechanism. However, group 2 &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; variably displays this phenotype and expression does not appear to correlate with a change in expression site or expression of &lt;i&gt;HpHbR&lt;/i&gt;. Thus there are differences in the mechanism of human serum resistance between &lt;i&gt;T. b. gambiense&lt;/i&gt; groups 1 and 2.&lt;/p&gt

Observation of electron-antineutrino disappearance at Daya Bay

The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment has measured a non-zero value for the neutrino mixing angle $\theta_{13}$ with a significance of 5.2 standard deviations. Antineutrinos from six 2.9 GW$_{\rm th}$ reactors were detected in six antineutrino detectors deployed in two near (flux-weighted baseline 470 m and 576 m) and one far (1648 m) underground experimental halls. With a 43,000 ton-GW_{\rm th}-day livetime exposure in 55 days, 10416 (80376) electron antineutrino candidates were detected at the far hall (near halls). The ratio of the observed to expected number of antineutrinos at the far hall is $R=0.940\pm 0.011({\rm stat}) \pm 0.004({\rm syst})$. A rate-only analysis finds $\sin^22\theta_{13}=0.092\pm 0.016({\rm stat})\pm0.005({\rm syst})$ in a three-neutrino framework.Comment: 5 figures. Version to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Melarsoprol cyclodextrin inclusion complexes as promising oral candidates for the treatment of human African trypanosomiasis

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), or sleeping sickness, results from infection with the protozoan parasites &lt;i&gt;Trypanosoma brucei&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;T.b.&lt;/i&gt;) &lt;i&gt;gambiense&lt;/i&gt; or &lt;i&gt;T.b.rhodesiense&lt;/i&gt; and is invariably fatal if untreated. There are 60 million people at risk from the disease throughout sub-Saharan Africa. The infection progresses from the haemolymphatic stage where parasites invade the blood, lymphatics and peripheral organs, to the late encephalitic stage where they enter the central nervous system (CNS) to cause serious neurological disease. The trivalent arsenical drug melarsoprol (Arsobal) is the only currently available treatment for CNS-stage &lt;i&gt;T.b.rhodesiense&lt;/i&gt; infection. However, it must be administered intravenously due to the presence of propylene glycol solvent and is associated with numerous adverse reactions. A severe post-treatment reactive encephalopathy occurs in about 10% of treated patients, half of whom die. Thus melarsoprol kills 5% of all patients receiving it. Cyclodextrins have been used to improve the solubility and reduce the toxicity of a wide variety of drugs. We therefore investigated two melarsoprol cyclodextrin inclusion complexes; melarsoprol hydroxypropyl-&#846;-cyclodextrin and melarsoprol randomly-methylated-&#946;-cyclodextrin. We found that these compounds retain trypanocidal properties &lt;i&gt;in vitro&lt;/i&gt; and cure CNS-stage murine infections when delivered orally, once per day for 7-days, at a dosage of 0.05 mmol/kg. No overt signs of toxicity were detected. Parasite load within the brain was rapidly reduced following treatment onset and magnetic resonance imaging showed restoration of normal blood-brain barrier integrity on completion of chemotherapy. These findings strongly suggest that complexed melarsoprol could be employed as an oral treatment for CNS-stage HAT, delivering considerable improvements over current parenteral chemotherapy

A new measurement of antineutrino oscillation with the full detector configuration at Daya Bay

We report a new measurement of electron antineutrino disappearance using the fully-constructed Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment. The final two of eight antineutrino detectors were installed in the summer of 2012. Including the 404 days of data collected from October 2012 to November 2013 resulted in a total exposure of 6.9$\times$10$^5$ GW$_{\rm th}$-ton-days, a 3.6 times increase over our previous results. Improvements in energy calibration limited variations between detectors to 0.2%. Removal of six $^{241}$Am-$^{13}$C radioactive calibration sources reduced the background by a factor of two for the detectors in the experimental hall furthest from the reactors. Direct prediction of the antineutrino signal in the far detectors based on the measurements in the near detectors explicitly minimized the dependence of the measurement on models of reactor antineutrino emission. The uncertainties in our estimates of $\sin^{2}2\theta_{13}$ and $|\Delta m^2_{ee}|$ were halved as a result of these improvements. Analysis of the relative antineutrino rates and energy spectra between detectors gave $\sin^{2}2\theta_{13} = 0.084\pm0.005$ and $|\Delta m^{2}_{ee}|= (2.42\pm0.11) \times 10^{-3}$ eV$^2$ in the three-neutrino framework.Comment: Updated to match final published versio

Evolution of the Reactor Antineutrino Flux and Spectrum at Daya Bay

The Daya Bay experiment has observed correlations between reactor core fuel evolution and changes in the reactor antineutrino flux and energy spectrum. Four antineutrino detectors in two experimental halls were used to identify 2.2 million inverse beta decays (IBDs) over 1230 days spanning multiple fuel cycles for each of six 2.9 GW$_{\textrm{th}}$ reactor cores at the Daya Bay and Ling Ao nuclear power plants. Using detector data spanning effective $^{239}$Pu fission fractions, $F_{239}$, from 0.25 to 0.35, Daya Bay measures an average IBD yield, $\bar{\sigma}_f$, of $(5.90 \pm 0.13) \times 10^{-43}$ cm$^2$/fission and a fuel-dependent variation in the IBD yield, $d\sigma_f/dF_{239}$, of $(-1.86 \pm 0.18) \times 10^{-43}$ cm$^2$/fission. This observation rejects the hypothesis of a constant antineutrino flux as a function of the $^{239}$Pu fission fraction at 10 standard deviations. The variation in IBD yield was found to be energy-dependent, rejecting the hypothesis of a constant antineutrino energy spectrum at 5.1 standard deviations. While measurements of the evolution in the IBD spectrum show general agreement with predictions from recent reactor models, the measured evolution in total IBD yield disagrees with recent predictions at 3.1$\sigma$. This discrepancy indicates that an overall deficit in measured flux with respect to predictions does not result from equal fractional deficits from the primary fission isotopes $^{235}$U, $^{239}$Pu, $^{238}$U, and $^{241}$Pu. Based on measured IBD yield variations, yields of $(6.17 \pm 0.17)$ and $(4.27 \pm 0.26) \times 10^{-43}$ cm$^2$/fission have been determined for the two dominant fission parent isotopes $^{235}$U and $^{239}$Pu. A 7.8% discrepancy between the observed and predicted $^{235}$U yield suggests that this isotope may be the primary contributor to the reactor antineutrino anomaly.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure