Rangeland Degradation in Mongolia – Using State and Transition Models to Help Understand Rangeland Dynamics

Rangeland degradation and soil erosion pose constant challenges to the management of natural resources in Mongolia. Large increases in livestock numbers since the early 1990s, together with increasing temperatures and higher frequency of extreme weather events have led to widespread degradation of rangeland resources, to the extent that today, nearly 57% of rangelands in Mongolia are considered degraded to some degree. New ways of understanding the dynamics of rangeland ecosystems and guidelines to conserve healthy and productive rangelands are urgently needed. The application of State and Transition Models (STMs) in ecosystem management has shown promise to understand the mechanistic processes behind rangeland degradation and to suggest appropriate interventions for maintaining the health or restoring degraded rangelands. The Green Gold-Animal Health project funded by the Swiss Development Agency in Mongolia was the first initiative aimed at developing and applying STMs to Mongolian rangeland management. Here we describe the development of STMs for the most common rangeland types in Mongolia, including the definition of reference and alternative rangeland states and “recovery classes”, based on the timelines and management actions needed to recover a reference state. Our results show that STMs are effective tools for analysing and interpreting rangeland health monitoring data and provide a scientific basis for planning and implementing resilience-based rangeland management. Furthermore, STMs facilitate synthesis of available knowledge and help identify areas where more information is needed. In summary, STMs have the potential to serve as a valuable tool for better communication of rangeland health assessments and decision making to facilitate appropriate management

Estimating a Personalized Basal Insulin Dose from Short-Term Closed-Loop Data in Type 2 Diabetes

In type 2 diabetes (T2D) treatment, finding a safe and effective basal insulin dose is a challenge. The dose-response is highly individual and to ensure safety, people with T2D titrate by slowly increasing the daily insulin dose to meet treatment targets. This titration can take months. To ease and accelerate the process, we use short-term artificial pancreas (AP) treatment tailored for initial titration and apply it as a diagnostic tool. Specifically, we present a method to automatically estimate a personalized daily dose of basal insulin from closed-loop data collected with an AP. Based on AP-data from a stochastic simulation model, we employ the continuous-discrete extended Kalman filter and a maximum likelihood approach to estimate parameters in a simple dose-response model for 100 virtual people. With the identified model, we compute a daily dose of basal insulin to meet treatment targets for each individual. We test the personalized dose and evaluate the treatment outcomes against clinical reference values. In the tested simulation setup, the proposed method is feasible. However, more extensive tests will reveal whether it can be deemed safe for clinical implementation.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in Proceedings of the 2022 61st IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC

The geology and hydrology of the CarbFix2 site, SW-Iceland

Injection of CO2 and H2S emissions from the Hellisheidi Geothermal Power Plant, SW-Iceland, as part of the CarbFix project, is currently taking place in the Húsmúli reinjection zone. Here we present detailed descriptions of the geology of the reservoir rock in Húsmúli including descriptions of its intrusions, secondary mineralogy and sources of permeability. We further present preliminary results from a modelling study of the Húsmúli reinjection zone that was conducted to obtain better understanding of flow paths in the area. The model was calibrated using results from an extensive tracer test that was carried out in 2013-2015

The chemistry and potential reactivity of the CO2-H2S charged injected waters at the basaltic CarbFix2 site, Iceland

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)The CarbFix2 project aims to capture and store the CO2 and H2S emissions from the Hellisheiði geothermal power plant in Iceland by underground mineral storage. The gas mixture is captured directly by its dissolution into water at elevated pressure. This fluid is then injected, along with effluent geothermal water, into subsurface basalts to mineralize the dissolved acid gases as carbonates and sulfides. Sampled effluent and gas-charged injection waters were analyzed and their mixing geochemically modeled using PHREEQC. Results suggest that carbonates, sulfides, and other secondary minerals would only precipitate after it has substantially reacted with the host basalt. Moreover, the fluid is undersaturated with respect to the most common primary and secondary minerals at the injection well outlet, suggesting that the risk of clogging fluid flow paths near the injection well is limited.This publication has been produced with support from Reykjavik Energy and the European Commission through the projects CarbFix (EC coordinated action 283148) and CO2-REACT (EC Project 317235).Peer Reviewe

Rapid solubility and mineral storage of CO2 in basalt

The long-term security of geologic carbon storage is critical to its success and public acceptance. Much of the security risk associated with geological carbon storage stems from its buoyancy. Gaseous and supercritical CO2 are less dense than formation waters, providing a driving force for it to escape back to the surface. This buoyancy can be eliminated by the dissolution of CO2 into water prior to, or during its injection into the subsurface. The dissolution makes it possible to inject into fractured rocks and further enhance mineral storage of CO2 especially if injected into silicate rocks rich in divalent metal cations such as basalts and ultra-mafic rocks. We have demonstrated the dissolution of CO2 into water during its injection into basalt leading to its geologic solubility storage in less than five minutes and potential geologic mineral storage within few years after injection [1–3]. The storage potential of CO2 within basaltic rocks is enormous. All the carbon released from burning of all fossil fuel on Earth, 5000 GtC, can theoretically be stored in basaltic rocks [4]

CarbFix2: CO₂ and H₂S mineralization during 3.5 years of continuous injection into basaltic rocks at more than 250 °C

The CarbFix method was upscaled at the Hellisheiði geothermal power plant to inject and mineralize the plant’s CO₂ and H₂S emissions in June 2014. This approach first captures the gases by their dissolution in water, and the resulting gas-charged water is injected into subsurface basalts. The dissolved CO₂ and H₂S then react with the basaltic rocks liberating divalent cations, Ca^{2+}, Mg^{2+}, Fe^{2+}, increasing the fluid pH, and precipitating stable carbonate and sulfide minerals. By the end of 2017, 23,200 metric tons of CO₂ and 11,800 metric tons of H₂S had been injected to a depth of 750 m into fractured, hydrothermally altered basalts at >250 °C. The in situ fluid composition, as well as saturation indices and predominance diagrams of relevant secondary minerals at the injection and monitoring wells, indicate that sulfide precipitation is not limited by the availability of Fe or by the consumption of Fe by other secondary minerals; Ca release from the reservoir rocks to the fluid phase, however, is potentially the limiting factor for calcite precipitation, although dolomite and thus aqueous Mg may also play a role in the mineralization of the injected carbon. During the first phase of the CarbFix2 injection (June 2014 to July 2016) over 50% of injected carbon and 76% of sulfur mineralized within four to nine months, but these percentages increased four months after the amount of injected gas was doubled during the second phase of CarbFix2 (July 2016 – December 2017) at over 60% of carbon and over 85% of sulfur. The doubling of the gas injection rate decreased the pH of the injection water liberating more cations for gas mineralization. Notably, the injectivity of the injection well has remained stable throughout the study period confirming that the host rock permeability has been essentially unaffected by 3.5 years of mineralization reactions. Lastly, although the mineralization reactions are accelerated by the high temperatures (>250 °C), this is the upper temperature limit for carbon storage via the mineral carbonation of basalts as higher temperatures leads to potential decarbonation reactions

The rapid and cost-effective capture and subsurface mineral storage of carbon and sulfur at the CarbFix2 site

One of the main challenges of worldwide carbon capture and storage (CCS) efforts is its cost. As much as 90% of this cost stems from the capture of pure or nearly pure CO2 from exhaust streams. This cost can be lowered by capturing gas mixtures rather than pure CO2. Here we present a novel integrated carbon capture and storage technology, installed at the CarbFix2 storage site at Hellisheiði, Iceland that lowers considerably the cost and energy required at this site. The CarbFix2 site, located in deeper and hotter rocks than the original CarbFix site, permits the continuous injection of larger quantities of CO2 and H2S than the original site. The integrated process consists of soluble gas mixture capture in water followed by the direct injection of the resulting CO2-H2S-charged water into basaltic rock, where much of the dissolved carbon and sulfur are mineralized within months. This integrated method provides the safe, long-term storage of carbon dioxide and other acid gases at a cost of US $25/ton of the gas mixture at the CarbFix2 site and might provide the technology for lower CCS cost at other sites