A Multi-model Analysis of Post-2020 Mitigation Efforts of Five Major Economies

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan and USA) in the context of the 2 degrees C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2 degrees C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on enduse efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors

2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and possibilities of limiting the use of BECCS and bio-energy

This report presents a set of scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C and 1.5 °C, by either using full-technology reduction options as included in the IMAGE and POLES models, or by limiting the use of bio-energy in energy production and combining it with carbon capture and storage. Under these scenarios, global emission reductions by 2050 will be between about 50% and 65% for the 2 °C target and 70% to 80% for 1.5 °C, compared to 1990 levels

The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and a middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 500-1100 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: 1) the policy assumptions, 2) the socio-economic narrative, and 3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectorial extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6)

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale lowcarbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios

Health and health care utilisation among asylum seekers and refugees in the Netherlands: design of a study

BACKGROUND: This article discusses the design of a study on the prevalence of health problems (both physical and mental) and the utilisation of health care services among asylum seekers and refugees in the Netherlands, including factors that may be related to their health and their utilisation of these services. METHODS/DESIGN: The study will include random samples of adult asylum seekers and refugees from Afghanistan, Iran and Somali (total planned sample of 600), as these are among the largest groups within the reception centres and municipalities in the Netherlands. The questionnaire that will be used will include questions on physical health (chronic and acute diseases and somatization), mental health (Hopkins Symptoms Checklist-25 and Harvard Trauma Questionnaire), utilisation of health care services, pre- and post-migratory traumatic experiences, life-style, acculturation, social support and socio-demographic background. The questionnaire has gone through a translation process (translation and back-translation, several checks and a pilot-study) and cross-cultural adaptation. Respondents will be interviewed by bilingual and bicultural interviewers who will be specifically trained for this purpose. This article discusses the selection of the study population, the chosen outcome measures, the translation and cross-cultural adaptation of the measurement instrument, the training of the interviewers and the practical execution of the study. The information provided may be useful for other researchers in this relatively new field of epidemiological research among various groups of asylum seekers and refugees

Bragatston study protocol: a multicentre cohort study on automated quantification of cardiovascular calcifications on radiotherapy planning CT scans for cardiovascular risk prediction in patients with breast cancer

Introduction Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an important cause of death in breast cancer survivors. Some breast cancer treatments including anthracyclines, trastuzumab and radiotherapy can increase the risk of CVD, especially for patients with pre-existing CVD risk factors. Early identification of patients at increased CVD risk may allow switching to less cardiotoxic treatments, active surveillance or treatment of CVD risk factors. One of the strongest independent CVD risk factors is the presence and extent of coronary artery calcifications (CAC). In clinical practice, CAC are generally quantified on ECGtriggered cardiac CT scans. Patients with breast cancer treated with radiotherapy routinely undergo radiotherapy planning CT scans of the chest, and those scans could provide the opportunity to routinely assess CAC before a potentially cardiotoxic treatment. The Bragatston study aims to investigate the association between calcifications in the coronary arteries, aorta and heart valves (hereinafter called ‘cardiovascular calcifications’) measured automatically on planning CT scans of patients with breast cancer and CVD risk. Methods and analysis In a first step, we will optimise and validate a deep learning algorithm for automated quantification of cardiovascular calcifications on planning CT scans of patients with breast cancer. Then, in a multicentre cohort study (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam and Radboudumc, Nijmegen, The Netherlands), the association between cardiovascular calcifications measured on planning CT scans of patients with breast cancer (n≈16 000) and incident (non-)fatal CVD events will be evaluated. To assess the added predictive value of these calcifications over traditional CVD risk factors and treatment characteristics, a case-cohort analysis will be performed among all cohort members diagnosed with a CVD event during follow-up (n≈200) and a random sample of the baseline cohort (n≈600). Ethics and dissemination The Institutional Review Boards of the participating hospitals decided that the Medical R