Message in the Sky

We argue that the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provides a stupendous opportunity for the Creator of universe our (assuming one exists) to have sent a message to its occupants, using known physics. Our work does not support the Intelligent Design movement in any way whatsoever, but asks, and attempts to answer, the entirely scientific question of what the medium and message might be IF there was actually a message. The medium for the message is unique. We elaborate on this observation, noting that it requires only careful adjustment of the fundamental Lagrangian, but no direct intervention in the subsequent evolution of the universe.Comment: 3 pages, revtex; to appear in Mod.Phys.Lett.

A speculative relation between the cosmological constant and the Planck mass

We propose the relation $M_\Lambda \sim (M_{Pl} M_U)^{1/2}$ where $M_\Lambda$, $M_{Pl},$ and $M_U$ denote the mass scale associated with the cosmological constant, the gravitational interaction, and the size of the universe respectively.Comment: 3 page

Summertime evaluation of REFAME over the Unites States for near real-time high resolution precipitation estimation

Precipitation is the key input for hydrometeorological modeling and applications. In many regions of the world, including populated areas, ground-based measurement of precipitation (whether from radar or rain gauge) is either sparse in time and space or nonexistent. Therefore, high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products are recognized as critical data sources, especially for rapidly-evolving hydrometeorological events such as flash floods which primarily occur during summer/warm seasons. As " proof of concept" , a recently proposed algorithm called Rain Estimation using Forward Adjusted-advection of Microwave Estimates (REFAME) and its variation REFAMEgeo are evaluated over the contiguous United States during summers of 2009 and 2011. Both methods are originally designed for near real-time high resolution precipitation estimation from remotely sensed data. High-resolution Q2 (ground radar) precipitation data, in conjunction with two operational near real-time satellite-based precipitation products (PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS) are used as evaluation reference and for comparison. The study is performed at half-hour temporal resolution and at a range of spatial resolutions (0.08-, 0.25-, 0.5-, and 1-degree latitude/longitude). The statistical analyses suggest that REFAMEgeo performs favorably among the studied products in terms of capturing both spatial coverage and intensity of precipitation at near real-time with the temporal resolution offered by geostationary satellites. With respect to volume precipitation, REFAMEgeo together with REFAME demonstrates slight overestimation of intense precipitation and underestimation of light precipitation events. Compared to REFAME, It is observed that REFAMEgeo maintains stable performance, even when the amount of accessible microwave (MW) overpasses is limited. Based on the encouraging outcome of this study which was intended as " proof of concept" , further testing for other seasons and data-rich regions is the next logical step. Upon confirmation of the relative reliability of the algorithm, it is reasonable to recommend the use of its precipitation estimates for data-sparse regions of the world. © 2012 Elsevier B.V

Assessment of assimilating SMOS soil moisture information into a distributed hydrologic model

The role that soil moisture plays in terms of modulating hydrologic processes including infiltration and runoff generation makes it an essential component to capture for hydrologic modeling. This work aims to leverage information gained from SMOS to improve surface soil moisture simulations in the Russian River Basin (California, U.S.A). The basin's complex terrain offers a rigorous testing ground for SMOS soil moisture products. Data from seven in situ observation sites are used to assess model performance after assimilating SMOS-based soil saturation ratios. For a comparison of "best case" scenarios, the in situ observations themselves are assimilated. Results show that SMOS assimilated simulations shows modest improvement at most in situ locations. Despite the observed decrease in model performance at some locations, overall performance of simulations assimilated with SMOS-based saturation ratios remains high. Findings suggest that even in a complex environment, useful information may be extracted from SMOS estimates for hydrologic modeling

An object-based approach for verification of precipitation estimation

Verification has become an integral component in the development of precipitation algorithms used in satellite-based precipitation products and evaluation of numerical weather prediction models. A number of object-based verification methods have been developed to quantify the errors related to spatial patterns and placement of precipitation. In this study, an image processing technique known as watershed transformation, capable of detecting closely spaced, but separable precipitation areas, is adopted in the object-based approach. Several key attributes of the segmented precipitation objects are selected and interest values of those attributes are estimated based on the distance measurement of the estimated and reference images. An overall interest score is estimated from all the selected attributes and their interest values. The proposed object-based approach is implemented to validate satellite-based precipitation estimation against ground radar observations. The results indicate that the watershed segmentation technique is capable of separating the closely spaced local-scale precipitation areas. In addition, three verification metrics, including the object-based false alarm ratio, object-based missing ratio, and overall interest score, reveal the skill of precipitation estimates in depicting the spatial and geometric characteristics of the precipitation structure against observations

Object-based assessment of satellite precipitation products

An object-based verification approach is employed to assess the performance of the commonly used high-resolution satellite precipitation products: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), Climate Prediction center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT. The evaluation of the satellite precipitation products focuses on the skill of depicting the geometric features of the localized precipitation areas. Seasonal variability of the performances of these products against the ground observations is investigated through the examples of warm and cold seasons. It is found that PERSIANN is capable of depicting the orientation of the localized precipitation areas in both seasons. CMORPH has the ability to capture the sizes of the localized precipitation areas and performs the best in the overall assessment for both seasons. 3B42RT is capable of depicting the location of the precipitation areas for both seasons. In addition, all of the products perform better on capturing the sizes and centroids of precipitation areas in the warm season than in the cold season, while they perform better on depicting the intersection area and orientation in the cold season than in the warm season. These products are more skillful on correctly detecting the localized precipitation areas against the observations in the warm season than in the cold season

Daytime precipitation estimation using bispectral cloud classification system

Two previously developed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) algorithms that incorporate cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) and multispectral analysis (PERSIANN-MSA) are integrated and employed to analyze the role of cloud albedo from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 (GOES-12) visible (0.65 μm) channel in supplementing infrared (10.7 mm) data. The integrated technique derives finescale (0.04° × 0.04° latitudelongitude every 30 min) rain rate for each grid box through four major steps: 1) segmenting clouds into a number of cloud patches using infrared or albedo images; 2) classification of cloud patches into a number of cloud types using radiative, geometrical, and textural features for each individual cloud patch; 3) classification of each cloud type into a number of subclasses and assigning rain rates to each subclass using a multidimensional histogram matching method; and 4) associating satellite gridbox information to the appropriate corresponding cloud type and subclass to estimate rain rate in grid scale. The technique was applied over a study region that includes the U.S. landmass east of 115°W. One reference infrared-only and three different bis-pectral (visible and infrared) rain estimation scenarios were compared to investigate the technique's ability to address two major drawbacks of infrared-only methods: 1) underestimating warm rainfall and 2) the inability to screen out no-rain thin cirrus clouds. Radar estimates were used to evaluate the scenarios at a range of temporal (3 and 6 hourly) and spatial (0.04°, 0.08°, 0.12°, and 0.24° latitude-longitude) scales. Overall, the results using daytime data during June-August 2006 indicate that significant gain over infrared-only technique is obtained once albedo is used for cloud segmentation followed by bispectral cloud classification and rainfall estimation. At 3-h, 0.04° resolution, the observed improvement using bispectral information was about 66% for equitable threat score and 26% for the correlation coefficient. At coarser 0.24° resolution, the gains were 34% and 32% for the two performance measures, respectively. © 2010 American Meteorological Society

Improving Precipitation Estimation Using Convolutional Neural Network

Precipitation process is generally considered to be poorly represented in numerical weather/climate models. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods, which relate precipitation with model resolved dynamics, often provide more accurate precipitation estimates compared to model's raw precipitation products. We introduce the convolutional neural network model to foster this aspect of SD for daily precipitation prediction. Specifically, we restrict the predictors to the variables that are directly resolved by discretizing the atmospheric dynamics equations. In this sense, our model works as an alternative to the existing precipitation-related parameterization schemes for numerical precipitation estimation. We train the model to learn precipitation-related dynamical features from the surrounding dynamical fields by optimizing a hierarchical set of spatial convolution kernels. We test the model at 14 geogrid points across the contiguous United States. Results show that provided with enough data, precipitation estimates from the convolutional neural network model outperform the reanalysis precipitation products, as well as SD products using linear regression, nearest neighbor, random forest, or fully connected deep neural network. Evaluation for the test set suggests that the improvements can be seamlessly transferred to numerical weather modeling for improving precipitation prediction. Based on the default network, we examine the impact of the network architectures on model performance. Also, we offer simple visualization and analyzing approaches to interpret the models and their results. Our study contributes to the following two aspects: First, we offer a novel approach to enhance numerical precipitation estimation; second, the proposed model provides important implications for improving precipitation-related parameterization schemes using a data-driven approach

Light weight fire resistant graphite composites

Composite structures with a honeycomb core and characterized by lightweight and excellent fire resistance are provided. These sandwich structures employ facesheets made up of bismaleimide-vinyl styrylpyridine copolymers with fiber reinforcement such as carbon fiber reinforcement. In preferred embodiments the facesheets are over layered with a decorative film. The properties of these composites make them attractive materials of construction aircraft and spacecraft