Human mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens

Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the dynamics of the outbreak, including pathogen's epidemiological traits (e.g. transmissibility, infectious period and duration of immunity), seasonality, interaction with other circulating strains and hosts' mixing and spatial fragmentation. Here, we study a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model on a metapopulation where individuals are distributed in subpopulations connected via a network of mobility flows. Through extensive numerical simulations, we explore the phase space of pathogen's persistence and map the dynamical regimes of the pathogen following emergence. Our results show that spatial fragmentation and mobility play a key role in the persistence of the disease whose maximum is reached at intermediate mobility values. We describe the occurrence of different phenomena including local extinction and emergence of epidemic waves, and assess the conditions for large scale spreading. Findings are highlighted in reference to previous works and to real scenarios. Our work uncovers the crucial role of hosts' mobility on the ecological dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens, opening the path for further studies on disease ecology in the presence of a complex and heterogeneous environment.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures. Submitted for publicatio

Machine dependence and reproducibility for coupled climate simulations: the HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP Preindustrial simulation

When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. While the role of HPC platforms in delivering better climate projections is to some extent discussed in the literature, attention is mainly focused on scalability and performance rather than on the impact of machine-dependent processes on the numerical solution. Here we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial (PI) simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial. We found that for the two simulations to be statistically indistinguishable, a 200-year averaging period must be used for the analysis of the results. Thus, constant-forcing climate simulations using the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model are reproducible on different HPC platforms provided that a sufficiently long duration of simulation is used. In regions where El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection patterns were detected, we found large sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration differences on centennial timescales. This indicates that a 100-year constant-forcing climate simulation may not be long enough to adequately capture the internal variability of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, despite this being the minimum simulation length recommended by CMIP6 protocols for many MIP (Model Intercomparison Project) experiments. On the basis of our findings, we recommend a minimum simulation length of 200 years whenever possible

Magnetoelectric Effects on Composite Nano Granular Fe/TiO2−δFe/TiO_{2-\delta} Films

Employing a new experimental technique to measure magnetoelectric response functions, we have measured the magnetoelectric effect in composite films of nano granular metallic iron in anatase titanium dioxide at temperatures below 50 K. A magnetoelectric resistance is defined as the ratio of a transverse voltage to bias current as a function of the magnetic field. In contrast to the anomalous Hall resistance measured above 50 K, the magnetoelectic resistance below 50 K is significantly larger and exhibits an even symmetry with respect to magnetic field reversal $H\to -H$. The measurement technique required attached electrodes in the plane of the film composite in order to measure voltage as a function of bias current and external magnetic field. To our knowledge, the composite films are unique in terms of showing magnetoelectric effects at low temperatures, $<$ 50 K, and anomalous Hall effects at high temperatures, $>$ 50 K.Comment: ReVTeX, 2 figures, 3 page

Is mass loss along the red giant branch of globular clusters sharply peaked? The case of M3

There is a growing evidence that several globular clusters must contain multiple stellar generations, differing in helium content. This hypothesis has helped to interpret peculiar unexplained features in their horizontal branches. In this framework we model the peaked distribution of the RR Lyr periods in M3, that has defied explanation until now. At the same time, we try to reproduce the colour distribution of M3 horizontal branch stars. We find that only a very small dispersion in mass loss along the red giant branch reproduces with good accuracy the observational data. The enhanced and variable helium content among cluster stars is at the origin of the extension in colour of the horizontal branch, while the sharply peaked mass loss is necessary to reproduce the sharply peaked period distribution of RR Lyr variables. The dispersion in mass loss has to be <~ 0.003 Msun, to be compared with the usually assumed values of ~0.02 Msun. This requirement represents a substantial change in the interpretation of the physical mechanisms regulating the evolution of globular cluster stars.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Computer use by students with disabilities perceived advantages, problems and solutions

Titre de l'écran-titre (visionné le 4 oct. 2013)Bibliogr

Invasion threshold in heterogeneous metapopulation networks

We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity pattern. In SIR-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global invasion threshold. We provide an explicit expression of the threshold that sets a critical value of the diffusion/mobility rate below which the epidemic is not able to spread to a macroscopic fraction of subpopulations. The invasion threshold is found to be affected by the topological fluctuations of the metapopulation network. The presented results provide a general framework for the understanding of the effect of travel restrictions in epidemic containment.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Observation of coherent Josephson response in the non-linear ab-plane microwave impedance of YBa2Cu3O6.95YBa_{2}Cu_{3}O_{6.95} single crystals

We report novel non-linear phenomena in the $ab$-plane microwave impedance of $YBaCu_{2}O_{7-\delta }$ single crystals. The $R_s$ vs. $H_{rf}$ data are well described by the non-linear RSJ model : $\dot{\phi}+\sin \phi =i_{rf}\cos \omega t$. The entire crystal behaves like a single Josephson junction. The extraordinary coherence of the data suggests an intrinsic mechanism.Comment: 2 pages,1 figure, Submitted to Proc. of M^2SHTSC-V (Beijing), also available at http://sagar.physics.neu.edu/preprint

Left atrial size after cardioversion for atrial fibrillation: effect of external DC shock

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of external direct current (DC) shock on left atrial (LA) dimension and volumes after cardioversion for atrial fibrillation, and the relation between LA size and atrial function. METHODS: We evaluated 180 patients who were randomly cardioverted with DC shock (90 patients) or drugs (90 patients). Echocardiographic evaluations included LA size and volumes. LA passive and active emptying volumes were calculated, and LA function was measured as atrial ejection force. Changes in LA diameters and volumes were correlate with atrial systolic function. RESULTS: The LA was dilated in all patients during arrhythmia and decreased after the restoration of sinus rhythm. The entity of reduction was different in the 2 groups of patients. LA maximal and minimal volumes were increased after DC shock as compared with patients treated with drugs (LA maximal volume 34 +/- 4 vs 31 +/- 5; P <.01; LA minimal volume 18 +/- 2.6 vs 15 +/- 3.6; P <.01). The atrial function was also depressed after DC shock and the delay in the recovery of atrial contractility was related to LA dilation. Patients treated with drugs had a higher atrial ejection force that was associated with a more marked reduction in LA maximal volume after the restoration of in sinus rhythm. A relationship between LA volumes and atrial ejection force was observed in the group of patients with depressed atrial mechanic function (r = -0.78; P <.001). The active emptying fraction was lower, although not significantly, in this group, whereas the conduit volume was increased. CONCLUSION: External DC shock induced a depressed atrial mechanic function in many patients and this was associated with a persistence of LA dilation

Electronic Transport in the Oxygen Deficient Ferromagnetic Semiconducting TiO2−δ_{2-\delta}

TiO$_{2-\delta}$ films were deposited on (100) Lanthanum aluminates LaAlO$_{3}$ substrates at a very low oxygen chamber pressure $P\approx 0.3$ mtorr employing a pulsed laser ablation deposition technique. In previous work, it was established that the oxygen deficiency in these films induced ferromagnetism. In this work it is demonstrated that this same oxygen deficiency also gives rise to semiconductor titanium ion impurity donor energy levels. Transport resistivity measurements in thin films of TiO$_{2-\delta}$ are presented as a function of temperature and magnetic field. Magneto- and Hall- resistivity is explained in terms of electronic excitations from the titanium ion donor levels into the conduction band.Comment: RevTeX4, Four pages, Four Figures in ^.eps forma