Evaluating regional emission estimates using the TRACE-P observations

Measurements obtained during the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment are used in conjunction with regional modeling analysis to evaluate emission estimates for Asia. A comparison between the modeled values and the observations is one method to evaluate emissions. Based on such analysis it is concluded that the inventory performs well for the light alkanes, CO, ethyne, SO2, and NOₓ. Furthermore, based on model skill in predicting important photochemical species such as O₃, HCHO, OH, HO₂, and HNO₃, it is found that the emissions inventories are of sufficient quality to support preliminary studies of ozone production. These are important finding in light of the fact that emission estimates for many species (such as speciated NMHCs and BC) for this region have only recently been estimated and are highly uncertain. Using a classification of the measurements built upon trajectory analysis, we compare observed species distributions and ratios of species to those modeled and to ratios estimated from the emissions inventory. It is shown that this technique can reconstruct a spatial distribution of propane/benzene that looks remarkably similar to that calculated from the emissions inventory. A major discrepancy between modeled and observed behavior is found in the Yellow Sea, where modeled values are systematically underpredicted. The integrated analysis suggests that this may be related to an underestimation of emissions from the domestic sector. The emission is further tested by comparing observed and measured species ratios in identified megacity plumes. Many of the model derived ratios (e.g., BC/CO, SOₓ/C₂H₂) fall within ∼25% of those observed and all fall outside of a factor of 2.5. (See Article file for details of the abstract.)Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringAuthor name used in this publication: Wang, T

Regional-scale chemical transport modeling in support of the analysis of observations obtained during the TRACE-P experiment

Data obtained during the TRACE-P experiment is used to evaluate how well the CFORS/STEM-2K1 regional-scale chemical transport model is able to represent the aircraft observations. Thirty-one calculated trace gas and aerosol parameters are presented and compared to the in situ data. The regional model is shown to accurately predict many of the important features observed. The mean values of all the model parameters in the lowest 1 km are predicted within ±30% of the observed values. The correlation coefficients (R) for the meteorological parameters are found to be higher than those for the trace species. For example, for temperature, R \u3e 0.98. Among the trace species, ethane, propane, and ozone show the highest values (0.8 \u3c R \u3c 0.9), followed by CO, SO2, and NOy, NO and NO2 had the lowest values (R \u3c 0.4). Analyses of pollutant transport into the Yellow Sea by frontal events are presented and illustrate the complex nature of outflow. Biomass burning from SE Asia is transported in the warm conveyor belt at altitudes above ∼2 km and at latitudes below 30N. Outflow of pollution emitted along the east coast of China in the postfrontal regions is typically confined to the lower ∼2 km and results in high concentrations with plume-like features in the Yellow Sea. During these situations the model underpredicts CO and black carbon (among other species). An analysis of ozone production in this region is also presented. In and around the highly industrialized regions of East Asia, where fossil fuel usage dominates, ozone is NMHC-limited. South of ∼30-35N, ozone production is NOx-limited, reflecting the high NMHC/NOx ratios due to the large contributions to the emissions from biomass burning, biogenics sources, and biofuel usage in central China and SE Asia. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union

Combination Forecasts of Bond and Stock Returns: An Asset Allocation Perspective

We investigate the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the HML, SMB, momentum, short-term and long-term reversal factors along with their size and value decompositions on U.S. bond and stock returns for a variety of horizons ranging from the short run (1 month) to the long run (2 years). Our findings suggest that these factors contain significantly more information for future bond and stock market returns than the typically employed financial variables. Combination of forecasts of the empirical factors turns out to be particularly successful, especially from an an asset allocation perspective. Similar findings pertain to the European and Japanese markets

Total smoking bans in psychiatric inpatient services: a survey of perceived benefits, barriers and support among staff

Background: The introduction of total smoking bans represents an important step in addressing the smoking and physical health of people with mental illness. Despite evidence indicating the importance of staff support in the successful implementation of smoking bans, limited research has examined levels of staff support prior to the implementation of a ban in psychiatric settings, or factors that are associated with such support. This study aimed to examine the views of psychiatric inpatient hospital staff regarding the perceived benefits of and barriers to implementation of a successful total smoking ban in mental health services. Secondly, to examine the level of support among clinical and non-clinical staff for a total smoking ban. Thirdly, to examine the association between the benefits and barriers perceived by clinicians and their support for a total smoking ban in their unit. Methods: Cross-sectional survey of both clinical and non-clinical staff in a large inpatient psychiatric hospital immediately prior to the implementation of a total smoking ban. Results: Of the 300 staff, 183 (61%) responded. Seventy-three (41%) of total respondents were clinical staff, and 110 (92%) were non-clinical staff. More than two-thirds of staff agreed that a smoking ban would improve their work environment and conditions, help staff to stop smoking and improve patients' physical health. The most prevalent clinician perceived barriers to a successful total smoking ban related to fear of patient aggression (89%) and patient non-compliance (72%). Two thirds (67%) of all staff indicated support for a total smoking ban in mental health facilities generally, and a majority (54%) of clinical staff expressed support for a ban within their unit. Clinical staff who believed a smoking ban would help patients to stop smoking were more likely to support a smoking ban in their unit. Conclusions: There is a clear need to more effectively communicate to staff the evidence that consistently applied smoking bans do not increase patient aggression. There is also a need to communicate the benefits of smoking bans in aiding the delivery of smoking cessation care, and the benefits of both smoking bans and such care in aiding patients to stop smoking

How the Fed Reanimated Wall Street: The Low and Extended Lending Rates that Revived the Big Banks

Walter Bagehot's putative principles of lending in liquidity crises - to lend freely to solvent banks with good collateral but at penalty rates - have served as a theoretical basis for thinking about the lender of last resort for close to 100 years, while simultaneously providing justification for central bank real-world intervention. If we presume Bagehot's principles to be both sound and adhered to by central bankers, we would expect to find the lending by the Fed during the global financial crisis in line with such policies. Taking Bagehot's principles at face value, this paper aims to examine one of these principles - central bank lending at penalty rates - and to determine whether it did in fact conform to this standard. A comprehensive analysis of these rates has revealed that the Fed did not, in actuality, follow Bagehot's classical doctrine. Consequently, the intervention not only generated moral hazard but also set the stage for another crisis. This working paper is part of the Ford Foundation project A Research and Policy Dialogue Project on Improving Governance of the Government Safety Net in Financial Crisis and continues the investigation of the Fed's bailout of the financial system - the most comprehensive study of the raw data to date

The cost-effectiveness of a new disease management model for frail elderly living in homes for the elderly, design of a cluster randomized controlled clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of this article is to describe the design of a study to evaluate the clinical and economic effects of a Disease Management model on functional health, quality of care and quality of life of persons living in homes for the elderly.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study concerns a cluster randomized controlled clinical trial among five intervention homes and five usual care homes in the North-West of the Netherlands with a total of over 500 residents. All persons who are not terminally ill, are able to be interviewed and sign informed consent are included. For cognitively impaired persons family proxies will be approached to provide outcome information. The Disease Management Model consists of several elements: (1) Trained staff carries out a multidimensional assessment of the patients functional health and care needs with the interRAI Long Term Care Facilities instrument (LTCF). Computerization of the LTCF produces immediate identification of problem areas and thereby guides individualized care planning. (2) The assessment outcomes are discussed in a Multidisciplinary Meeting (MM) with the nurse, primary care physician, nursing home physician and Psychotherapist and if necessary other members of the care team. The MM presents individualized care plans to manage or treat modifiable disabilities and risk factors. (3) Consultation by an nursing home physician and psychotherapist is offered to the frailest residents at risk for nursing home admission (according to the interRAI LTCF). Outcome measures are Quality of Care indicators (LTCF based), Quality Adjusted Life Years (Euroqol), Functional health (SF12, COOP-WONCA), Disability (GARS), Patients care satisfaction (QUOTE), hospital and nursing home days and mortality, health care utilization and costs.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This design is unique because no earlier studies were performed to evaluate the effects and costs of this Disease Management Model for disabled persons in homes for the elderly on functional health and quality of care.</p> <p>Trail registration number</p> <p>ISRCTN11076857</p

Evaluating regional emission estimates using the TRACE-P observations

Author name used in this publication: Wang, T.2003-2004 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalVersion of RecordPublishe

A comparison of specialist rehabilitation and care assistant support with specialist rehabilitation alone and usual care for people with Parkinson's living in the community: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Parkinson's Disease is a degenerative neurological condition that causes movement problems and other distressing symptoms. People with Parkinson's disease gradually lose their independence and strain is placed on family members. A multidisciplinary approach to rehabilitation for people with Parkinson's is recommended but has not been widely researched. Studies are needed that investigate cost-effective community-based service delivery models to reduce disability and dependency and admission to long term care, and improve quality of life.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A pragmatic three parallel group randomised controlled trial involving people with Parkinson's Disease and live-in carers (family friends or paid carers), and comparing: management by a specialist multidisciplinary team for six weeks, according to a care plan agreed between the professionals and the patient and carer (Group A); multidisciplinary team management and additional support for four months from a trained care assistant (Group B); usual care, no coordinated team care planning or ongoing support (Group C). Follow up will be for six months to determine the impact and relative cost-effectiveness of the two interventions, compared to usual care. The primary outcomes are disability (patients) and strain (carers). Secondary outcomes include patient mobility, falls, speech, pain, self efficacy, health and social care use; carer general health; patient and carer social functioning, psychological wellbeing, health related quality of life. Semi structured interviews will be undertaken with providers (team members, care assistants), service commissioners, and patients and carers in groups A and B, to gain feedback about the acceptability of the interventions. A cost - effectiveness evaluation is embedded in the trial.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The trial investigates components of recent national policy recommendations for people with long term conditions, and Parkinson's Disease in particular, and will provide guidance to inform local service planning and commissioning.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN44577970">ISRCTN44577970</a></p