Clinical manifestations of human brucellosis : a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this systematic review, commissioned by WHO, were to assess the frequency and severity of clinical manifestations of human brucellosis, in view of specifying a disability weight for a DALY calculation. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Thirty three databases were searched, with 2,385 articles published between January 1990-June 2010 identified as relating to human brucellosis. Fifty-seven studies were of sufficient quality for data extraction. Pooled proportions of cases with specific clinical manifestations were stratified by age category and sex and analysed using generalized linear mixed models. Data relating to duration of illness and risk factors were also extracted. Severe complications of brucellosis infection were not rare, with 1 case of endocarditis and 4 neurological cases per 100 patients. One in 10 men suffered from epididymo-orchitis. Debilitating conditions such as arthralgia, myalgia and back pain affected around half of the patients (65%, 47% and 45%, respectively). Given that 78% patients had fever, brucellosis poses a diagnostic challenge in malaria-endemic areas. Significant delays in appropriate diagnosis and treatment were the result of health service inadequacies and socioeconomic factors. Based on disability weights from the 2004 Global Burden of Disease Study, a disability weight of 0.150 is proposed as the first informed estimate for chronic, localised brucellosis and 0.190 for acute brucellosis. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review adds to the understanding of the global burden of brucellosis, one of the most common zoonoses worldwide. The severe, debilitating, and chronic impact of brucellosis is highlighted. Well designed epidemiological studies from regions lacking in data would allow a more complete understanding of the clinical manifestations of disease and exposure risks, and provide further evidence for policy-makers. As this is the first informed estimate of a disability weight for brucellosis, there need for further debate amongst brucellosis experts and a consensus to be reache

Towards More Accurate Molecular Dynamics Calculation of Thermal Conductivity. Case Study: GaN Bulk Crystals

Significant differences exist among literature for thermal conductivity of various systems computed using molecular dynamics simulation. In some cases, unphysical results, for example, negative thermal conductivity, have been found. Using GaN as an example case and the direct non-equilibrium method, extensive molecular dynamics simulations and Monte Carlo analysis of the results have been carried out to quantify the uncertainty level of the molecular dynamics methods and to identify the conditions that can yield sufficiently accurate calculations of thermal conductivity. We found that the errors of the calculations are mainly due to the statistical thermal fluctuations. Extrapolating results to the limit of an infinite-size system tend to magnify the errors and occasionally lead to unphysical results. The error in bulk estimates can be reduced by performing longer time averages using properly selected systems over a range of sample lengths. If the errors in the conductivity estimates associated with each of the sample lengths are kept below a certain threshold, the likelihood of obtaining unphysical bulk values becomes insignificant. Using a Monte-Carlo approach developed here, we have determined the probability distributions for the bulk thermal conductivities obtained using the direct method. We also have observed a nonlinear effect that can become a source of significant errors. For the extremely accurate results presented here, we predict a [0001] GaN thermal conductivity of 185 $\rm{W/K \cdot m}$ at 300 K, 102 $\rm{W/K \cdot m}$ at 500 K, and 74 $\rm{W/K \cdot m}$ at 800 K. Using the insights obtained in the work, we have achieved a corresponding error level (standard deviation) for the bulk (infinite sample length) GaN thermal conductivity of less than 10 $\rm{W/K \cdot m}$, 5 $\rm{W/K \cdot m}$, and 15 $\rm{W/K \cdot m}$ at 300 K, 500 K, and 800 K respectively

Potential risk of regional disease spread in west Africa through cross-border cattle trade

Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time.; A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5%) operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1-80.0%) of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries.; By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential

Effective Free Energy for Individual Dynamics

Physics and economics are two disciplines that share the common challenge of linking microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, while physics is based on collective dynamics, economics is based on individual choices. This conceptual difference is one of the main obstacles one has to overcome in order to characterize analytically economic models. In this paper, we build both on statistical mechanics and the game theory notion of Potential Function to introduce a rigorous generalization of the physicist's free energy, which includes individual dynamics. Our approach paves the way to analytical treatments of a wide range of socio-economic models and might bring new insights into them. As first examples, we derive solutions for a congestion model and a residential segregation model.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, presented at the ECCS'10 conferenc

On Spatial Consensus Formation: Is the Sznajd Model Different from a Voter Model?

In this paper, we investigate the so-called ``Sznajd Model'' (SM) in one dimension, which is a simple cellular automata approach to consensus formation among two opposite opinions (described by spin up or down). To elucidate the SM dynamics, we first provide results of computer simulations for the spatio-temporal evolution of the opinion distribution $L(t)$, the evolution of magnetization $m(t)$, the distribution of decision times $P(\tau)$ and relaxation times $P(\mu)$. In the main part of the paper, it is shown that the SM can be completely reformulated in terms of a linear VM, where the transition rates towards a given opinion are directly proportional to frequency of the respective opinion of the second-nearest neighbors (no matter what the nearest neighbors are). So, the SM dynamics can be reduced to one rule, ``Just follow your second-nearest neighbor''. The equivalence is demonstrated by extensive computer simulations that show the same behavior between SM and VM in terms of $L(t)$, $m(t)$, $P(\tau)$, $P(\mu)$, and the final attractor statistics. The reformulation of the SM in terms of a VM involves a new parameter $\sigma$, to bias between anti- and ferromagnetic decisions in the case of frustration. We show that $\sigma$ plays a crucial role in explaining the phase transition observed in SM. We further explore the role of synchronous versus asynchronous update rules on the intermediate dynamics and the final attractors. Compared to the original SM, we find three additional attractors, two of them related to an asymmetric coexistence between the opposite opinions.Comment: 22 pages, 20 figures. For related publications see http://www.ais.fraunhofer.de/~fran

Reinforced communication and social navigation generate groups in model networks

To investigate the role of information flow in group formation, we introduce a model of communication and social navigation. We let agents gather information in an idealized network society, and demonstrate that heterogeneous groups can evolve without presuming that individuals have different interests. In our scenario, individuals' access to global information is constrained by local communication with the nearest neighbors on a dynamic network. The result is reinforced interests among like-minded agents in modular networks; the flow of information works as a glue that keeps individuals together. The model explains group formation in terms of limited information access and highlights global broadcasting of information as a way to counterbalance this fragmentation. To illustrate how the information constraints imposed by the communication structure affects future development of real-world systems, we extrapolate dynamics from the topology of four social networks.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Statistical physics of the Schelling model of segregation

We investigate the static and dynamic properties of a celebrated model of social segregation, providing a complete explanation of the mechanisms leading to segregation both in one- and two-dimensional systems. Standard statistical physics methods shed light on the rich phenomenology of this simple model, exhibiting static phase transitions typical of kinetic constrained models, nontrivial coarsening like in driven-particle systems and percolation-related phenomena.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Dynamic scaling regimes of collective decision making

We investigate a social system of agents faced with a binary choice. We assume there is a correct, or beneficial, outcome of this choice. Furthermore, we assume agents are influenced by others in making their decision, and that the agents can obtain information that may guide them towards making a correct decision. The dynamic model we propose is of nonequilibrium type, converging to a final decision. We run it on random graphs and scale-free networks. On random graphs, we find two distinct regions in terms of the "finalizing time" -- the time until all agents have finalized their decisions. On scale-free networks on the other hand, there does not seem to be any such distinct scaling regions

Extremism propagation in social networks with hubs

One aspect of opinion change that has been of academic interest is the impact of people with extreme opinions (extremists) on opinion dynamics. An agent-based model has been used to study the role of small-world social network topologies on general opinion change in the presence of extremists. It has been found that opinion convergence to a single extreme occurs only when the average number of network connections for each individual is extremely high. Here, we extend the model to examine the effect of positively skewed degree distributions, in addition to small-world structures, on the types of opinion convergence that occur in the presence of extremists. We also examine what happens when extremist opinions are located on the well-connected nodes (hubs) created by the positively skewed distribution. We find that a positively skewed network topology encourages opinion convergence on a single extreme under a wider range of conditions than topologies whose degree distributions were not skewed. The importance of social position for social influence is highlighted by the result that, when positive extremists are placed on hubs, all population convergence is to the positive extreme even when there are twice as many negative extremists. Thus, our results have shown the importance of considering a positively skewed degree distribution, and in particular network hubs and social position, when examining extremist transmission