House Price Forecasting from Investment Perspectives

Housing market dynamics have primarily shifted from consumption- to investment-driven in many countries, including Australia. Building on investment theory, we investigated market dynamics by placing investment demand at the center using the error correction model (ECM). We found that house prices, rents, and interest rates are cointegrated in the long run under the present value investment framework. Other economic factors such as population growth, unemployment, migration, construction activities, and bank lending were also important determinants of the housing market dynamics. Our forecasting results show that the Sydney housing market will continue to grow with no significant price decline in the foreseeable future.</jats:p

Use of environmental isotopes to assess the sustainability of intensively exploited aquifer systems (2012‐2015)

Intensive exploitation of groundwater over longer period has led, in many important aquifers, to marked lowering of water tables, increasing exploitation costs, and often, to a progressive deterioration of water quality. Concentrated pumping may also alter flow patterns permanently with the risk of migration of pollutants into aquifers from the surrounding aquifers or surface water bodies due to lack of physical protection to prevent them. Isotope hydrology tools have proven to be very useful in assessing groundwater hydrology, addressing aspects related to recharge processes, delineation of flow patterns, water quality issues and interactions with other water bodies; this unique information can be further used to evaluate long term aquifer sustainability. The objective of the Coordinated Research Project F33019 is to develop and review approaches and methodologies, mostly based on the combined use of conventional hydrogeological techniques and environmental isotopes, to assess the response of groundwater systems to intensive exploitation and groundwater availability. Access to new dating tools and approaches for groundwater dating covering different time scales offers the possibility to evaluate changes in groundwater dynamics and flow patterns, providing key data to predict the evolution of aquifers and their sustainability as major sources of water. The CRP aims to assess the performance of these new tools and approaches and the possible adoption of these methods by water management experts

Use of environmental isotopes to assess sustainability of intensively exploited aquifer systems (2012-2015). First Results of the Coordinated Research Project CRP F33019

International audienc

Bayesian Multi-Factor Model of Instability in Prices and Quantities of Risk in U.S. Financial Markets

This paper analyzes the empirical performance of two alternative ways in which multi-factor models with time-varying risk exposures and premia may be estimated. The first method echoes the seminal two-pass approach advocated by Fama and MacBeth (1973). The second approach is based on a Bayesian approach to modelling the latent process followed by risk exposures and idiosynchratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1979-2008 U.S. data for stock, bond, and publicly traded real estate returns shows that the classical, two-stage approach that relies on a nonparametric, rolling window modelling of time-varying betas yields results that are unreasonable. There is evidence that all the portfolios of stocks, bonds, and REITs have been grossly over-priced. On the contrary, the Bayesian approach yields sensible results as most portfolios do not appear to have been misspriced and a few risk premia are precisely estimated with a plausible sign. Real consumption growth risk turns out to be the only factor that is persistently priced throughout the sample