A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas

Extreme cold weather events, such as the winter of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded in the Central England Temperature record, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom (UK), as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes. A statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows complex dependencies to be modelled, especially between the tails of the AFI distributions, which is important to assess the extreme behaviour of such events. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency of UK cold winters has also been taken into account. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events, such as the 1962/63 winter, has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, the model predicts that such an event is expected to become more uncommon, about 2 times less frequent, by the year 2030. Extreme cold spells in the UK have been found to be heavily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well. A cold event is estimated to be ≈3–4 times more likely to occur during its negative phase than its positive phase. However, considerable uncertainty exists in these results, owing mainly to the short record length and the large interannual variability of the AFI.</p

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089

Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern midlatitudes

International audienceWe use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chem (GEOS-Chem) model to interpret long-term measurements of tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) and to investigate the factors that contribute to their interannual variation (IAV) during the period from 1987 to 2005. The model reproduces relatively well the observed IAV of CO. The simulation of O3 IAV is not as successful. In particular, the negative anomalies in 1991-1993 and the following upward trend in 1993-1996 observed at several sites in the northern midlatitudes are not reproduced by the model, which may result from a poor representation of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics. We examine in detail the period of 1998-1999 when a large anomaly in tropospheric ozone column is observed and simulated over Europe (maximum of +4.9 Dobson units). Three consecutive periods can be distinguished from January 1998 to April 1999, during which different processes affected the O3 burden over Europe. Spring 1998 is largely influenced by the preceding 1997 El Niño that affects (1) stratosphere-troposphere exchange and (2) Asian pollution export and transport toward Europe by a change in convective activity in East Asia and a strengthening of the subtropical jet stream. An enhanced pollution export from North America is also noticed for this period. The second period (summer-fall 1998) shows a mixed influence from both boreal wildfires and Asian pollution. The third period is influenced by enhanced wildfires in Southeast Asia. Throughout the period from 1987 to 2005, positive anomalies in tropospheric O3 column and in surface O3 are found over Europe in the spring following an El Niño year