Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition.

The 2007 sub-prime crisis in the United States, prolonged by a severe economic recession spread over many countries around the world, has led many economic researchers to focus on the recent fluctuations in housing prices and their relationships with macroeconomics and monetary policies. The existence of common housing cycles among the countries of the euro zone could lead the European Central Bank to integrate more specifically the evolution of such asset prices in its assessment. In this paper, we implement a multivariate unobserved component model on housing market variables in order to assess the common euro area housing cycle and to evaluate its relationship with the economic cycle. Among the general class of multivariate unobserved component models, we implement the band-pass filter based on the trend plus cycle decomposition model and we allow the existence of two cycles of different periods. The dataset consists of gross domestic product and real house prices series for four main euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). Empirical results show a strong relationship for business cycles in France, Italy and Spain. Moreover, French and Spanish house prices cycles appear to be strongly related, while the German one possesses its own dynamics. Finally, we find that GDP and house prices cycles are related in the medium-term for fluctuations between 4 and 8 years, while the housing market contributes to the long-term economic growth only in Spain and Germany.House prices, Business cycles, Euro area, Unobserved components model.

Missing observations in observation-driven time series models

We argue that existing methods for the treatment of missing observations in time-varying parameter observation-driven models lead to inconsistent inference. We provide a formal proof of this inconsistency for a Gaussian model with time-varying mean. A Monte Carlo simulation study supports this theoretical result and illustrates how the inconsistency problem extends to score-driven and, more generally, to observation-driven models, which include well-known models for conditional volatility. To overcome the problem of inconsistent inference, we propose a novel estimation procedure based on indirect inference. This easy-to-implement method delivers consistent inference. The asymptotic properties of the new method are formally derived. Our proposed estimation procedure shows a promising performance in a Monte Carlo simulation exercise as well as in an empirical study concerning the measurement of conditional volatility from financial returns data

Consistency of the Shannon entropy in quantum experiments

The consistency of the Shannon entropy, when applied to outcomes of quantum experiments, is analysed. It is shown that the Shannon entropy is fully consistent and its properties are never violated in quantum settings, but attention must be paid to logical and experimental contexts. This last remark is shown to apply regardless of the quantum or classical nature of the experiments.Comment: 12 pages, LaTeX2e/REVTeX4. V5: slightly different than the published versio

SPEXOR passive spinal exoskeleton decreases metabolic cost during symmetric repetitive lifting

PURPOSE: Besides mechanical loading of the back, physiological strain is an important risk factor for low-back pain. Recently a passive exoskeleton (SPEXOR) has been developed to reduce loading on the low back. We aimed to assess the effect of this device on metabolic cost of repetitive lifting. To explain potential effects, we assessed kinematics, mechanical joint work, and back muscle activity. METHODS: We recruited ten male employees, working in the luggage handling department of an airline company and having ample experience with lifting tasks at work. Metabolic cost, kinematics, mechanical joint work and muscle activity were measured during a 5-min repetitive lifting task. Participants had to lift and lower a box of 10 kg from ankle height with and without the exoskeleton. RESULTS: Metabolic cost was significantly reduced by 18% when wearing the exoskeleton. Kinematics did not change significantly, while muscle activity decreased by up to 16%. The exoskeleton took over 18-25% of joint work at the hip and L5S1 joints. However, due to large variation in individual responses, we did not find a significant reduction of joint work around the individual joints. CONCLUSION: Wearing the SPEXOR exoskeleton decreased metabolic cost and might, therefore, reduce fatigue development and contribute to prevention of low-back pain during repetitive lifting tasks. Reduced metabolic cost can be explained by the exoskeleton substituting part of muscle work at the hip and L5S1 joints and consequently decreasing required back muscle activity

The multifaceted role of serotonin in intestinal homeostasis

The monoamine serotonin, 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT), is a remarkable molecule with conserved production in prokaryotes and eukaryotes and a wide range of functions. In the gastrointestinal tract, enterochromaffin cells are the most important source for 5-HT production. Some intestinal bacterial species are also able to produce 5-HT. Besides its role as a neurotransmitter, 5-HT acts on immune cells to regulate their activation. Several lines of evidence indicate that intestinal 5-HT signaling is altered in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. In this review, we discuss the current knowledge on the production, secretion, and signaling of 5-HT in the intestine. We present an inventory of intestinal immune and epithelial cells that respond to 5-HT and describe the effects of these signaling processes on intestinal homeostasis. Further, we detail the mechanisms by which 5-HT could affect inflammatory bowel disease course and describe the effects of interventions that target intestinal 5-HT signaling