Heterogeneity in multistage carcinogenesis and mixture modeling

Carcinogenesis is commonly described as a multistage process, in which stem cells are transformed into cancer cells via a series of mutations. In this article, we consider extensions of the multistage carcinogenesis model by mixture modeling. This approach allows us to describe population heterogeneity in a biologically meaningful way. We focus on finite mixture models, for which we prove identifiability. These models are applied to human lung cancer data from several birth cohorts. Maximum likelihood estimation does not perform well in this application due to the heavy censoring in our data. We thus use analytic graduation instead. Very good fits are achieved for models that combine a small high risk group with a large group that is quasi immune

Oral abstracts 1: SpondyloarthropathiesO1. Detecting axial spondyloarthritis amongst primary care back pain referrals

Background: Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is an early feature of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and its detection offers the prospect of early diagnosis of AS. However, since back pain is very common but only a very small minority of back pain sufferers have ASpA or AS, screening of back pain sufferers for AS is problematic. In early disease radiographs are often normal so that fulfilment of diagnostic criteria for AS is impossible though a diagnosis of axial SpA can be made if MRI evidence of sacroiliitis is present. This pilot study was designed to indicate whether a cost-effective pick up rate for ASpA/early AS could be achieved by identifying adults with IBP stratified on the basis of age. Methods: Patients aged between 18 and 45 years who were referred to a hospital physiotherapy service with back pain of more than 3 months duration were assessed for IBP. All were asked to complete a questionnaire based on the Berlin IBP criteria. Those who fulfilled IBP criteria were also asked to complete a second short questionnaire enquiring about SpA comorbidities, to have a blood test for HLA-B27 and CRP level and to undergo an MRI scan of the sacroiliac joints. This was a limited scan, using STIR, diffusion-weighted, T1 and T2 sequences of the sacroiliac joints to minimize time in the scanner and cost. The study was funded by a research grant from Abbott Laboratories Ltd. Results: 50 sequential patients agreed to participate in the study and completed the IBP questionnaire. Of these 27 (54%) fulfilled criteria for IBP. Of these, 2 patients reported a history of an SpA comorbidity - 1 psoriasis; 1 ulcerative colitis - and 3 reported a family history of an SpA comorbidity - 2 psoriasis; 1 Crohn's disease. 4 were HLA-B27 positive, though results were not available for 7. Two patients had marginally raised CRP levels (6, 10 -NR ≤ 5). 19 agreed to undergo MRI scanning of the sacroiliac joints and lumbar spine; 4 scans were abnormal, showing evidence of bilateral sacroiliitis on STIR sequences. In all cases the changes met ASAS criteria but were limited. Of these 4 patients 3 were HLA-B27 positive but none gave a personal or family history of an SpA-associated comorbidity and all had normal CRP levels. Conclusions: This was a pilot study yielding only limited conclusions. However, it is clear that: Screening of patients referred for physiotherapy for IBP is straightforward, inexpensive and quick. It appears that IBP is more prevalent in young adults than overall population data suggest so that targeting this population may be efficient. IBP questionnaires could be administered routinely during a physiotherapy assessment. HLA-B27 testing in this group of patients with IBP is a suitable screening tool. The sacroiliac joint changes identified were mild and their prognostic significance is not yet clear so that the value of early screening needs further evaluation. Disclosure statement: C.H. received research funding for this study from Abbott. A.K. received research funding for this study, and speaker and consultancy fees, from Abbott. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes

BHPR research: qualitative1. Complex reasoning determines patients' perception of outcome following foot surgery in rheumatoid arhtritis

Background: Foot surgery is common in patients with RA but research into surgical outcomes is limited and conceptually flawed as current outcome measures lack face validity: to date no one has asked patients what is important to them. This study aimed to determine which factors are important to patients when evaluating the success of foot surgery in RA Methods: Semi structured interviews of RA patients who had undergone foot surgery were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis of interviews was conducted to explore issues that were important to patients. Results: 11 RA patients (9 ♂, mean age 59, dis dur = 22yrs, mean of 3 yrs post op) with mixed experiences of foot surgery were interviewed. Patients interpreted outcome in respect to a multitude of factors, frequently positive change in one aspect contrasted with negative opinions about another. Overall, four major themes emerged. Function: Functional ability & participation in valued activities were very important to patients. Walking ability was a key concern but patients interpreted levels of activity in light of other aspects of their disease, reflecting on change in functional ability more than overall level. Positive feelings of improved mobility were often moderated by negative self perception ("I mean, I still walk like a waddling duck”). Appearance: Appearance was important to almost all patients but perhaps the most complex theme of all. Physical appearance, foot shape, and footwear were closely interlinked, yet patients saw these as distinct separate concepts. Patients need to legitimize these feelings was clear and they frequently entered into a defensive repertoire ("it's not cosmetic surgery; it's something that's more important than that, you know?”). Clinician opinion: Surgeons' post operative evaluation of the procedure was very influential. The impact of this appraisal continued to affect patients' lasting impression irrespective of how the outcome compared to their initial goals ("when he'd done it ... he said that hasn't worked as good as he'd wanted to ... but the pain has gone”). Pain: Whilst pain was important to almost all patients, it appeared to be less important than the other themes. Pain was predominately raised when it influenced other themes, such as function; many still felt the need to legitimize their foot pain in order for health professionals to take it seriously ("in the end I went to my GP because it had happened a few times and I went to an orthopaedic surgeon who was quite dismissive of it, it was like what are you complaining about”). Conclusions: Patients interpret the outcome of foot surgery using a multitude of interrelated factors, particularly functional ability, appearance and surgeons' appraisal of the procedure. While pain was often noted, this appeared less important than other factors in the overall outcome of the surgery. Future research into foot surgery should incorporate the complexity of how patients determine their outcome Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Simultaneous confidence bands for nonlinear regression models with application to population pharmacokinetic analyses

Many applications in biostatistics rely on nonlinear regression models, such as, for example, population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling, or modeling approaches for dose-response characterization and dose selection. Such models are often expressed as nonlinear mixed-effects models, which are implemented in all major statistical software packages. Inference on the model curve can be based on the estimated parameters, from which pointwise confidence intervals for the mean profile at any single point in the covariate region (time, dose, etc.) can be derived. These pointwise confidence intervals, however, should not be used for simultaneous inferences beyond that single covariate value. If assessment over the entire covariate region is required, the joint coverage probability by using the combined pointwise confidence intervals is likely to be less than the nominal coverage probability. In this paper we consider simultaneous confidence bands for the mean profile over the covariate region of interest and propose two large-sample methods for their construction. The first method is based on the Schwarz inequality and an asymptotic ? 2 distribution. The second method relies on simulating from a multivariate normal distribution. We illustrate the methods with the pharmacokinetics of theophylline. In addition, we report the results of an extensive simulation study to investigate the operating characteristics of the two construction methods. Finally, we present extensions to construct simultaneous confidence bands for the difference of two models and to assess equivalence between two models in biosimilarity application

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers