The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications

The market for high yield (below investment-grade) corporate bonds developed in the middle 1980s. We show that, since this time, the high yield spread has had significant explanatory power for the business cycle. We interpret this finding as possibly symptomatic of financial factors at work in the business cycle, along the lines suggested by the financial accelerator. We also show that over this period the high yield spread outperforms other leading financial indicators, including the term spread, the paper-bill spread and the Federal Funds rate. We conjecture that changes in the conduct of monetary policy over time may account for the reduced informativeness of these alternative indicators, all of which are tied closely to monetary policy.

Agency Costs, Collateral, and Business Fluctuations

Bad economic times are typically associated with a high incidence of financial distress, e.g., insolvency and bankruptcy. This paper studies the role of changes in borrower solvency in the initiation and propagation of the business cycle. We first develop a model of the process of financing real investment projects under asymmetric information, extending work by Robert Townsend. A major conclusion here is that when the entrepreneurs who borrow to finance projects are more solvent (have more "collateral"), the deadweight agency costs of investment finance are lower. This model of investment finance is then embedded in a dynamic macroeconomic setting. We show that, first, since reductions in collateral in bad times increase the agency costs of borrowing, which in turn depress the demand for investment, the presence of these financial factors will tend to amplify swings in real output. Second, we find that autonomous factors which affect the collateral of borrowers (as in a "debt-deflation") can actually initiate cycles in output.

Banking in General Equilibrium

This paper attempts to provide a step towards understanding the role of financial intermediaries ("banks") in aggregate economic activity. We first develop a model of the intermediary sector which is highly simplified, but rich enough to motivate several special features of bauks. Of particular importance in our model is the assumption that banks are more efficient than the public in evaluating and auditing certain information --intensive loan projects. Banks are also assumed to have private information about their investments, which motivates the heavy reliance of banks on debt rather than equity finance and their need for buffer stock capital. We embed this intermediary sector in a general equilibrium framework, which includes consumers and a non-banking investment sector. Mainly because banks have superior access to some investments, factors affecting the size or efficiency of banking will also have an impact on the aggregate economy. Among the factors affecting intermediation, we show, are the adequacy of bank capital, the riskiness of bank investments, and the costs of bank monitoring. We also show that our model is potentially useful for understanding the macroeconomic effects of phenomena such as financial crises, disintermediation, banking regulation, and certain types of monetary policy.

Strategies for pricing publicly provided health services

The authors examine how governments finance and allocate public spending, with an eye to developing strategies for pricing publicly provided health services. They also examine the implications of current policy and the possibility for rationalizing competing government priorities. Because governments face budget constraints and cannot fully subsidize all programs and activities, the authors argue the following: a) Public spending on health can (1) improve health outcomes, (2) promote nonhealth aspects of well-being (for example, reducing individuals'risk of economic losses from random health crises), and (3) finance redistribution to the poor. Optimal subsidy and fee policy will depend on how much relative weight government places on those competing objectives. Subsidies need to be reallocated toward the poor and toward public health sector can financed by increasing public subsidies. b) Prices for curative services (user fee) have two distinct roles. They can raise revenue, freeing public resources to be reallocated to public health activities and for limited cofinancing to improve the quality of curative care. More important, they can improve efficiency in the use of public facilities and the health care system as a whole. But those gains must be weighed against evidence that increased fees can compromise public health's three main goals. The literature has focused largely on how raising revenue affects the poor, but the more important effect is likely to be the guidance of resources. User fees are important in cofinancing health care but shouldn't be the primary means of finance. c) Revenue generated from user fees is sometimes used to improve the quality of, and access to, curative medical care. There is some evidence that people are willing to pay some of the cost of improving health care (especially for drugs), but the wealthy are willing to pay a lot more than the poor. If governments charge the average"willingness to pay,"the wealthy will use the services more, the poor, less. d) Prepayment social insurance plans hold promise, but there is evidence that they may introduce inefficient inflation of medical care costs that lower- and middle- income countries cannot afford.Public Sector Economics&Finance,Health Systems Development&Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Health Systems Development&Reform,Health Economics&Finance,Urban Economics

Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks

macroeconomics, monetary policy, oil, oil price shocks

Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission

The 'credit channel' theory of monetary policy transmission holds that informational frictions in credit markets worsen during tight- money periods. The resulting increase in the external finance premium--the difference in cost between internal and external funds-- enhances the effects of monetary policy on the real economy. We document the responses of GDP and its components to monetary policy shocks and describe how the credit channel helps explain the facts. We discuss two main components of this mechanism, the balance-sheet channel and the bank lending channel. We argue that forecasting exercises using credit aggregates are not valid tests of this theory.

Control in the technical societies: a brief history

By the time control engineering emerged as a coherent body of knowledge and practice (during and just after WW2) professional engineering societies had existed for many decades. Since control engineering is an interdisciplinary branch of the profession, new sections devoted to control were quickly established within the various existing technical societies. In addition, some new bodies devoted specifically or primarily to control were established. This article, a revised version of a paper presented at the IEEE 2009 Conference on the History of Technical Societies, describes how control engineering as a distinct branch of engineering became represented in technical societies in a number of countries

Shaping the formation of university-industry research collaborations: what type of proximity does really matter?

Research collaborations between universities and industry (U-I) are considered to be one important channel of potential localized knowledge spillovers (LKS). These collaborations favour both intended and unintended flows of knowledge and facilitate learning processes between partners from different organizations. Despite the copious literature on LKS, still little is known about the factors driving the formation of U-I research collaborations and, in particular, about the role that geographical proximity plays in the establishment of such relationships. Using collaborative research grants between universities and business firms awarded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), in this article we disentangle some of the conditions under which different kinds of proximity contribute to the formation of U-I research collaborations, focusing in particular on clustering and technological complementarity among the firms participating in such partnerships

Local Nodes in Global Networks: The Geography of Knowledge Flows in Biotechnology Innovation

The literature on innovation and interactive learning has tended to emphasize the importance of local networks, inter-firm collaboration and knowledge flows as the principal source of technological dynamism. More recently, however, this view has come to be challenged by other perspectives that argue for the importance of non-local knowledge flows. According to this alternative approach, truly dynamic economic regions are characterized both by dense local social interaction and knowledge circulation, as well as strong inter-regional and international connections to outside knowledge sources and partners. This paper offers an empirical examination of these issues by examining the geography of knowledge flows associated with innovation in biotechnology. We begin by reviewing the growing literature on the nature and geography of innovation in biotechnology research and the commercialization process. Then, focusing on the Canadian biotech industry, we examine the determinants of innovation (measured through patenting activity), paying particular attention to internal resources and capabilities of the firm, as well as local and global flows of knowledge and capital. Our study is based on the analysis of Statistics Canada’s 1999 Survey of Biotechnology Use and Development, which covers 358 core biotechnology firms. Our findings highlight the importance of in-house technological capability and absorptive capacity as determinants of successful innovation in biotechnology firms. Furthermore, our results document the precise ways in which knowledge circulates, in both embodied and disembodied forms, both locally and globally. We also highlight the role of formal intellectual property transactions (domestic and international) in promoting knowledge flows. Although we document the importance of global networks in our findings, our results also reveal the value of local networks and specific forms of embedding. Local relational linkages are especially important when raising capital—and the expertise that comes with it—to support innovation. Nevertheless, our empirical results raise some troubling questions about the alleged pre-eminence of the local in fostering innovation

Inventories and the Stockout Constraint in General Equilibrium

We study the implications of a stockout constraint in a dynamic general equilibrium model, which can explain both standard business cycle and inventory facts. Under this constraint, inventories and demand are complements in generating sales, and hence the optimal level of inventories increases in expected demand. We show that the inventory to sales ratio is both persistent and countercyclical because the cost of carrying inventories is mainly determined by the interest rate. We use this model to disentangle output and sales, by matching the key inventory moments, and find that preference and productivity shocks are equally important in the data. Finally, we assess whether improvements in inventory management can explain the Great Moderation. We find that, although improvements in inventory management can reduce the need for inventory holdings, which decreases output volatility relative to sales volatility, lower levels of inventories actually increases sales volatility. Because these two effects offset each other, a change in inventory management does not change output volatility to any great extent