Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited

An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We present a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis in models of individual behavior. This RE assumption at the micro level underlies a majority of the research in applied fields in economics, and it is the common foundation of most work in dynamic models of individual behavior. We present tests of three different types of expectations using two different panel data sets that represent two very different populations. In all three cases we cannot reject the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics, and other disciplines, that assume rational behavior.Rational Expectations, Retirement, Longevity, and Education Expectations, Instrumental Variables, Sample Selection.

Evaluation of the microstructure of Al-Cu-Li-Ag-Mg Weldalite (tm) alloys, part 4

Weldalite (trademark) 049 is an Al-Cu-Li-Ag-Mg alloy designed to have ultrahigh strength and to serve in aerospace applications. The alloy displays significantly higher strength than competitive alloys in both naturally aged and artificially aged tempers. The strengthening phases in such tempers have been identified to, in part, explain the mechanical properties attained. In general, the alloy is strengthened by delta prime Al3Li and Guinier-Preston (GP) zones in the naturally aged tempers. In artificially aged tempers in slightly underaged conditions, strengthening is provided by several phases including GP zones, theta prime Al2Cu, S prime Al2CuMg, T(sub 1) Al2CuLi, and possibly a new phase. In the peak strength artificially aged tempers, T(sub 1) is the predominant strengthening phase

Environmental Tobacco Smoke Exposure in Relation to Family Characteristics, Stressors and Chemical Co-Exposures in California Girls.

Childhood environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure is a risk factor for adverse health outcomes and may disproportionately burden lower socioeconomic status groups, exacerbating health disparities. We explored associations of demographic factors, stressful life events, and chemical co-exposures, with cotinine levels, among girls in the CYGNET Study. Data were collected from families of girls aged 6-8 years old in Northern California, through clinic exams, questionnaires and biospecimens (n = 421). Linear regression and factor analysis were conducted to explore predictors of urinary cotinine and co-exposure body burdens, respectively. In unadjusted models, geometric mean cotinine concentrations were higher among Black (0.59 ug/g creatinine) than non-Hispanic white (0.27), Asian (0.32), or Hispanic (0.34) participants. Following adjustment, living in a rented home, lower primary caregiver education, and lack of two biologic parents in the home were associated with higher cotinine concentrations. Girls who experienced parental separation or unemployment in the family had higher unadjusted cotinine concentrations. Higher cotinine was also associated with higher polybrominated diphenyl ether and metals concentrations. Our findings have environmental justice implications as Black and socio-economically disadvantaged young girls experienced higher ETS exposure, also associated with higher exposure to other chemicals. Efforts to reduce ETS and co-exposures should account for other disparity-related factors

Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited

An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We provide a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations hypothesis in models of individual behavior, and present tests using two different panel data sets.

Ugi multicomponent reaction to prepare peptide–peptoid hybrid structures with diverse chemical functionalities

Monodisperse sequenced peptides and peptoids present unique nano-structures based on their self-assembled secondary and tertiary structures. However, the generation of peptide and peptoid hybrid oligomers in a sequence-defined manner via Ugi multicomponent reaction has not yet been studied. Herein, we report a synthetic strategy that enables both the modification of peptides as well as the generation of sequence-defined peptide–peptoid hybrid structures. Our synthetic methodology rests on the fusion of solid phase peptide synthesis with Ugi multicomponent reactions. We evidence that a diversity of chemical functionalities can be inserted into peptides or used in the design of peptide–peptoid hybrids exploiting a wide functional array including amines, carboxylic acids, hydrocarbons, carbohydrates as well as polymers, introducing a sequence-defined synthetic platform technology for precision peptoid hybrids

Effect of Natriuretic Peptide-Guided Therapy on Hospitalization or Cardiovascular Mortality in High-Risk Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The natriuretic peptides are biochemical markers of heart failure (HF) severity and predictors of adverse outcomes. Smaller studies have evaluated adjusting HF therapy based on natriuretic peptide levels ( guided therapy ) with inconsistent results. Objective: To determine whether an amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-guided treatment strategy improves clinical outcomes vs usual care in high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Design, Settings, and Participants: The Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment in Heart Failure (GUIDE-IT) study was a randomized multicenter clinical trial conducted between January 16, 2013, and September 20, 2016, at 45 clinical sites in the United States and Canada. This study planned to randomize 1100 patients with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%), elevated natriuretic peptide levels within the prior 30 days, and a history of a prior HF event (HF hospitalization or equivalent) to either an NT-proBNP-guided strategy or usual care. Interventions: Patients were randomized to either an NT-proBNP-guided strategy or usual care. Patients randomized to the guided strategy (n = 446) had HF therapy titrated with the goal of achieving a target NT-proBNP of less than 1000 pg/mL. Patients randomized to usual care (n = 448) had HF care in accordance with published guidelines, with emphasis on titration of proven neurohormonal therapies for HF. Serial measurement of NT-proBNP testing was discouraged in the usual care group. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the composite of time-to-first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular mortality. Prespecified secondary end points included all-cause mortality, total hospitalizations for HF, days alive and not hospitalized for cardiovascular reasons, the individual components on the primary end point, and adverse events. Results: The data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping the study for futility when 894 (median age, 63 years; 286 [32%] women) of the planned 1100 patients had been enrolled with follow-up for a median of 15 months. The primary end point occurred in 164 patients (37%) in the biomarker-guided group and 164 patients (37%) in the usual care group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.98; 95% CI, 0.79-1.22; P = .88). Cardiovascular mortality was 12% (n = 53) in the biomarker-guided group and 13% (n = 57) in the usual care group (HR, 0.94; 95% CI; 0.65-1.37; P = .75). None of the secondary end points nor the decreases in the NT-proBNP levels achieved differed significantly between groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In high-risk patients with HFrEF, a strategy of NT-proBNP-guided therapy was not more effective than a usual care strategy in improving outcomes. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01685840