Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts

Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? Recent work suggests that when private agents have diverse sources of information, public information can cause them to overreact to the signals from the central bank, leading the economy to be too sensitive to common forecast errors. Greater transparency could be destabilizing. While this theoretical result has clear intuitive appeal, it turns on a combination of assumptions and conditions, so it remains to be established that it is of empirical relevance. ; In this paper we study the degree to which increased information about monetary policy might lead to individuals coordinating their forecasts. Specifically, we estimate a series of simple models to measure the impact of inflation targeting on the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. Using a panel data set that includes 15 countries over 20 years we find no convincing evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. While for some specifications adoption of inflation target does seem to reduce the standard deviation of inflation forecasts, the impact is rarely precise and always small.

The unreliability of inflation indicators

Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.Inflation (Finance) ; Economic indicators ; Forecasting

Population structure of Atlantic swordfish (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) (Teleostea, Xiphiidae) using mitochondrial DNA analysis: implications for fisheries management

Recent studies on Atlantic swordfish (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) genetic structure have demonstrated significant heterogeneity but the precise boundary between populations remains to be identified. In this context, genetic diversity was investigated by PCR–RFLP analysis at the control region of mitochondrial DNA (D–loop) from 274 swordfish specimens collected from five different areas of the Atlantic Ocean. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that genetic variation was mainly due to differences within rather than between the studied areas. Additionally, the phylogenetic analysis did not show evident relationships among haplotypes from all areas. However, low but significant FST values were recorded when comparing Equatorial samples with those from the north central and north tropical Atlantic. These results do not support a need for changing the current management boundary for the Atlantic fishery. Key words: Xiphiidae, Swordfish, Xiphias gladius, Mitochondrial DNA, Genetic variability, Atlantic Ocean.Estudios recientes sobre la estructura genética del pez espada del Atlántico (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) han demostrado una heterogeneidad significativa, pero los límites precisos entre poblaciones no han sido identificados. En este contexto, la diversidad genética se ha investigado mediante análisis PCR–RFLP en la región control de ADN mitocondrial (bucle D) de 274 peces espada recolectados en cinco zonas diferentes del océano Atlántico. El análisis de la varianza molecular (AMOVA) mostró que la variación genética se debía a diferencias en cada zona y no entre las zonas estudiadas. Además, los análisis filogenéticos no muestran relaciones evidentes entre los haplotipos de todas las zonas. A pesar de ello, al comparar las muestras ecuatoriales con las de zonas más al norte, se obtienen valores de FST bajos pero significativos. Estos resultados indican que no es necesario cambiar los límites de las zonas de gestión para la pesquería del Atlántico. Palabras clave: Xiphiidae, Pez espada, Xiphias gladius, ADN mitocondrial, Variabilidad genética, Océano Atlántico.Recent studies on Atlantic swordfish (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) genetic structure have demonstrated significant heterogeneity but the precise boundary between populations remains to be identified. In this context, genetic diversity was investigated by PCR–RFLP analysis at the control region of mitochondrial DNA (D–loop) from 274 swordfish specimens collected from five different areas of the Atlantic Ocean. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that genetic variation was mainly due to differences within rather than between the studied areas. Additionally, the phylogenetic analysis did not show evident relationships among haplotypes from all areas. However, low but significant FST values were recorded when comparing Equatorial samples with those from the north central and north tropical Atlantic. These results do not support a need for changing the current management boundary for the Atlantic fishery. Key words: Xiphiidae, Swordfish, Xiphias gladius, Mitochondrial DNA, Genetic variability, Atlantic Ocea

3′UTR Deletion of NONO Leads to Corpus Callosum Anomaly, Left Ventricular Non-Compaction and Ebstein’s Anomaly in a Male Fetus

NONO (Non-Pou Domain-Containing Octamer-Binding Protein) gene maps on chromosome Xq13.1 and hemizygous loss-of-function nucleotide variants are associated with an emerging syndromic form of intellectual developmental disorder (MRXS34; MIM #300967), characterized by developmental delay, intellectual disability, poor language, dysmorphic facial features, and microcephaly. Structural brain malformation, such as corpus callosum and cerebellar abnormalities, and heart defects, in particular left ventricular non-compaction (LVNC), represent the most recurrent congenital malformations, recorded both in about 80% of patients, and can be considered the distinctive imaging findings of this disorder. We present on a further case of NONO-related disease; prenatally diagnosed in a fetus with complete corpus callosum agenesis; absence of septum pellucidum; pericallosal artery; LVNC and Ebstein’s anomaly. A high-resolution microarray analysis demonstrated the presence of a deletion affecting the NONO 3′UTR; leading to a marked hypoexpression of the gene and the complete absence of the protein in cultured amniocytes. This case expands the mutational spectrum of MRXS34, advises to evaluate NONO variants in pre- and postnatal diagnosis of subjects affected by LVNC and other heart defects, especially if associated with corpus callosum anomalies and confirm that CNVs (Copy Number Variants) represent a non-negligible cause of Mendelian disorders

Prospect for Charge Current Neutrino Interactions Measurements at the CERN-PS

Tensions in several phenomenological models grew with experimental results on neutrino/antineutrino oscillations at Short-Baseline (SBL) and with the recent, carefully recomputed, antineutrino fluxes from nuclear reactors. At a refurbished SBL CERN-PS facility an experiment aimed to address the open issues has been proposed [1], based on the technology of imaging in ultra-pure cryogenic Liquid Argon (LAr). Motivated by this scenario a detailed study of the physics case was performed. We tackled specific physics models and we optimized the neutrino beam through a full simulation. Experimental aspects not fully covered by the LAr detection, i.e. the measurements of the lepton charge on event-by-event basis and their energy over a wide range, were also investigated. Indeed the muon leptons from Charged Current (CC) (anti-)neutrino interactions play an important role in disentangling different phenomenological scenarios provided their charge state is determined. Also, the study of muon appearance/disappearance can benefit of the large statistics of CC muon events from the primary neutrino beam. Results of our study are reported in detail in this proposal. We aim to design, construct and install two Spectrometers at "NEAR" and "FAR" sites of the SBL CERN-PS, compatible with the already proposed LAr detectors. Profiting of the large mass of the two Spectrometers their stand-alone performances have also been exploited.Comment: 70 pages, 38 figures. Proposal submitted to SPS-C, CER

Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data

This paper offers new insights on the price setting behaviour of German retail firms using a novel dataset that consists of a large panel of monthly business surveys from 1991-2006. The firm-level data allows matching changes in firms' prices to several other firm-characteristics. Moreover, information on price expectations allow analyzing the determinants of price updating. Using univariate and bivariate ordered probit specifications, empirical menu cost models are estimated relating the probability of price adjustment and price updating, respectively, to both time- and state- dependent variables. First, results suggest an important role for state-dependence; changes in the macroeconomic and institutional environment as well as firm-specific factors are significantly related to the timing of price adjustment. These findings imply that price setting models should endogenize the timing of price adjustment in order to generate realistic predictions concerning the transmission of monetary policy. Second, an analysis of price expectations yields similar results providing evidence in favour of state-dependent sticky plan models. Third, intermediate input cost changes are among the most important determinants of price adjustment suggesting that pricing models should explicitly incorporate price setting at different production stages. However, the results show that adjustment to input cost changes takes time indicating "additional stickiness" at the last stage of processing