Updating the UK’s code for fiscal stability

The 1998 Code for Fiscal Stability sets out the framework within which UK fiscal policy is now set. While having such a code does not make it easier for a Government to meet its fiscal objectives, it may improve the economic credibility of the policy process. To date the Code has generally worked well, and in any case many of the Treasury’s practices exceed the minimum requirements of the Code. However, improvements could be made in the light of recent experiences. In particular it would be preferable for less emphasis to be placed on the precise forecasts for fiscal aggregates and greater emphasis to be placed on the magnitude of the risks to those forecasts. Using the projections contained in the March 2004 Budget, and information on the size of errors made in the past, we estimate that there is now a 60% chance that the Chancellor’s “golden rule” will be met without further tax increases or spending cuts. This compares to 74% for the forecast made by the Treasury 12 months earlier. As well as clarifying how cautious forecasts are, the uncertainty surrounding projections for fiscal aggregates also has implications for the way in which progress towards any fiscal rules should be interpreted

An examination of the IFS corporation tax forecasting record

This paper examines the corporation tax forecasting techniques used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. For current year forecasts a judgemental forecast is found to have performed better than relying solely on a simple model or information on the receipts available so far in the current financial year. For longer time horizons the judgemental forecast has performed slightly less well than the modelled forecast. While forecasts made later in the financial year have led to more accurate estimates of receipts in the current year no evidence is found that this has improved the accuracy of longer run forecasts. In the short term inaccuracies in the modelling process are found to be more important than errors in forecasting growth in corporate profits. However the latter is still an important component of errors and one that grows substantially in relative importance as the forecast horizon increases

An economic evaluation of the early impact of Aimhigher: excellence challenge on pre-16 outcomes: update to previous analysis

The Aimhigher: Excellence Challenge intervention seeks to encourage more young people to articipate in tertiary education. This paper updates previous estimates of the impact of the programme on the GCSE marks and reported expected school leaving ages, among year 11 pupils. Information from 3 different cohorts is used (whereas the previous analysis had data on the first 2 cohorts). In some schools the second and third cohorts have been exposed to the policy, whereas in others only the third cohort was exposed to the policy. This distinction is used to model the impact of the policy using linear regression analysis. However the lack of a comparison group in Spring 2004 means that the impact of the policy can only be estimated under relatively strong assumptions about the evolution of the impact of the policy across time. Under the assumption that the policy had the same impact in the original treatment (EiC Phase 1 & 2 areas) in Spring 2004 as in Spring 2003, we find evidence that being part of the Aimhigher: Excellence Challenge programme in the new areas (EiC Phase 3) has led to a 5.2 percentage point increase in the year 11 pupils expecting to leave education at age 20 or over. Although slightly larger, this estimate is not statistically significantly different from the increase of 3.7 percentage points found in the original (EiC Phase 1 & 2) areas. Across both types of area (EiC Phase 1& 2 and EiC Phase 3) we estimate that the average impact of the policy is to increase the percentage of year 11 pupils reporting that they will leave education at age 20 or above by 4.6 percentage points. We also find some evidence of a similar positive impact on GCSE English results, although the impact across other GCSEs is less clear. While the assumptions made in producing these new estimates are relatively strong it is clear that the analysis of the new data does not contradict the previous estimates (which were reliant on less strong assumptions)

Early quantitative evidence on the impact of the pathways to work pilots

Since October 2003 the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has been piloting reforms in England, Scotland and Wales which provide greater support alongside greater obligations to encourage many new claimants of incapacity benefits to move into paid work. The Pathways to Work package of reforms includes: a series of usually mandatory workfocused interviews; programmes designed to boost claimants' prospects of being able to work; and increased financial incentives for individuals to enter paid employment. As part of a quantitative assessment of the impact of the programme, a telephone survey of those making an initial enquiry to Jobcentre Plus about claiming incapacity benefits was conducted in both pilot and comparison areas before and after the pilots were implemented. This report focuses on the differences in some early quantitative outcomes between Pathways and non-Pathways areas. Two empirical techniques are used to investigate the early impact of the pilots on employment, earnings, receipt of incapacity benefits, and a potential indicator of the extent to which individuals' health affects their everyday activities. The analysis was undertaken by researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the telephone interviews were undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research. All these findings are preliminary: more comprehensive analysis will be conducted in later stages of the evaluation. This report analyses outcomes at a time shortly after the pilots started. Further analysis of outcomes will assess Pathways to Work using survey and administrative data from a later cohort and will examine outcomes over a longer period of time

Early quantitative evidence on the impact of the Pathways to Work pilots

Since October 2003 the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has been piloting reforms in England, Scotland and Wales which provide greater support alongside greater obligations to encourage many new claimants of incapacity benefits to move into paid work. The Pathways to Work package of reforms includes: a series of usually mandatory workfocused interviews; programmes designed to boost claimants' prospects of being able to work; and increased financial incentives for individuals to enter paid employment. As part of a quantitative assessment of the impact of the programme, a telephone survey of those making an initial enquiry to Jobcentre Plus about claiming incapacity benefits was conducted in both pilot and comparison areas before and after the pilots were implemented. This report focuses on the differences in some early quantitative outcomes between Pathways and non-Pathways areas. Two empirical techniques are used to investigate the early impact of the pilots on employment, earnings, receipt of incapacity benefits, and a potential indicator of the extent to which individuals' health affects their everyday activities. The analysis was undertaken by researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the telephone interviews were undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research. All these findings are preliminary: more comprehensive analysis will be conducted in later stages of the evaluation. This report analyses outcomes at a time shortly after the pilots started. Further analysis of outcomes will assess Pathways to Work using survey and administrative data from a later cohort and will examine outcomes over a longer period of time

Pregnancy experiences of Western Australian women attending a specialist childbirth and mental illness antenatal clinic

Our purpose was to explore the pregnancy experiences of Australian women attending a specialized Childbirth and Mental Illness (CAMI) antenatal clinic. A qualitative exploratory design was selected to give voice to women with a severe mental illness receiving antenatal care. Telephone interviews with 41 women, 24 primiparous and 17 multiparous, were analysed using thematic analysis. Three themes emerged: ‘Building relationships’, ‘Acknowledged me as a person with special needs’ and ‘Respect and understanding without stigma’. Findings offer insight into care experiences possible within a multidisciplinary model developed to addresses psychiatric and obstetric needs of pregnant women with severe mental illness

Microwave saturation of the Rydberg states of electrons on helium

We present measurements of the resonant microwave excitation of the Rydberg energy levels of surface state electrons on superfluid helium. The temperature dependent linewidth agrees well with theoretical predictions and is very small below 300 mK. Absorption saturation and power broadening were observed as the fraction of electrons in the first excited state was increased to 0.49, close to the thermal excitation limit of 0.5. The Rabi frequency was determined as a function of microwave power. The high values of the ratio of the Rabi frequency to linewidth confirm this system as an excellent candidate for creating qubits.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Photo‐ and Electrochemical Properties of a CO₂ Reducing Ruthenium–Rhenium Quaterpyridine‐Based Catalyst

The bridging ligand 2,2′,5′,3′′,6′′,2′′′‐quaterpyridine was utilised to tether [(bpy)2Ru]2+ and [Re(CO)3Cl] subunits for the purpose of photocatalytic CO2 reduction. The photophysics and electrochemistry of the complex and associated mononuclear species are reported herein, in addition to photocatalytic, picosecond time‐resolved infrared and computational studies. Photophysical, time‐resolved IR, and electrochemical data together with quantum chemical calculations indicate weak communication between the two metal centres. As a result of the electron‐withdrawing effect of the ligand on both the Ru and Re subunits, the reducing power of the photosensitiser and catalytic unit were significantly attenuated relative to the intermolecular approach utilising [(bpy)3Ru]2+ and (bpy)Re(CO)3Cl

An open, multi-vendor, multi-field-strength brain MR dataset and analysis of publicly available skull stripping methods agreement

This paper presents an open, multi-vendor, multi-field strength magnetic resonance (MR) T1-weighted volumetric brain imaging dataset, named Calgary-Campinas-359 (CC-359). The dataset is composed of images of older healthy adults (29-80 years) acquired on scanners from three vendors (Siemens, Philips and General Electric) at both 1.5 T and 3 T. CC-359 is comprised of 359 datasets, approximately 60 subjects per vendor and magnetic field strength. The dataset is approximately age and gender balanced, subject to the constraints of the available images. It provides consensus brain extraction masks for all volumes generated using supervised classification. Manual segmentation results for twelve randomly selected subjects performed by an expert are also provided. The CC-359 dataset allows investigation of 1) the influences of both vendor and magnetic field strength on quantitative analysis of brain MR; 2) parameter optimization for automatic segmentation methods; and potentially 3) machine learning classifiers with big data, specifically those based on deep learning methods, as these approaches require a large amount of data. To illustrate the utility of this dataset, we compared to the results of a supervised classifier, the results of eight publicly available skull stripping methods and one publicly available consensus algorithm. A linear mixed effects model analysis indicated that vendor (p - value < 0.001) and magnetic field strength (p - value < 0.001) have statistically significant impacts on skull stripping results170482494CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO - CNPQCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR - CAPESFUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESP311228/2014-3; 157534/2015-488881.062158/2014-012013/07559-3; 2013/23514-0; 2016/18332-

Alternate-Fueled Combustor-Sector Performance

Alternate aviation fuels for military or commercial use are required to satisfy MIL-DTL-83133F(2008) or ASTM D 7566 (2010) standards, respectively, and are classified as "drop-in" fuel replacements. To satisfy legacy issues, blends to 50% alternate fuel with petroleum fuels are certified individually on the basis of processing and assumed to be feedstock agnostic. Adherence to alternate fuels and fuel blends requires "smart fueling systems" or advanced fuel-flexible systems, including combustors and engines, without significant sacrifice in performance or emissions requirements. This paper provides preliminary performance (Part A) and emissions and particulates (Part B) combustor sector data. The data are for nominal inlet conditions at 225 psia and 800 F (1.551 MPa and 700 K), for synthetic-paraffinic-kerosene- (SPK-) type (Fisher-Tropsch (FT)) fuel and blends with JP-8+100 relative to JP-8+100 as baseline fueling. Assessments are made of the change in combustor efficiency, wall temperatures, emissions, and luminosity with SPK of 0%, 50%, and 100% fueling composition at 3% combustor pressure drop. The performance results (Part A) indicate no quantifiable differences in combustor efficiency, a general trend to lower liner and higher core flow temperatures with increased FT fuel blends. In general, emissions data (Part B) show little differences, but with percent increase in FT-SPK-type fueling, particulate emissions and wall temperatures are less than with baseline JP-8. High-speed photography illustrates both luminosity and combustor dynamic flame characteristics