Exploring overcrowding trends in an inner city emergence department in the UK before and during COVID-19 epidemic

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated lockdowns have caused significant disruptions across society, including changes in the number of emergency department (ED) visits. This study aims to investigate the impact of three pre-COVID-19 interventions and of the COVID-19 UK-epidemic and the first UK national lockdown on overcrowding within University College London Hospital Emergency Department (UCLH ED). The three interventions: target the influx of patients at ED (A), reduce the pressure on in-patients' beds (B) and improve ED processes to improve the flow of patents out from ED (C). METHODS: We collected overcrowding metrics (daily attendances, the proportion of people leaving within 4 h of arrival (four-hours target) and the reduction in overall waiting time) during 01/04/2017-31/05/2020. We then performed three different analyses, considering three different timeframes. The first analysis used data 01/04/2017-31/12-2019 to calculate changes over a period of 6 months before and after the start of interventions A-C. The second and third analyses focused on evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, comparing the first 10 months in 2020 and 2019, and of the first national lockdown (23/03/2020-31/05/2020). RESULTS: Pre-COVID-19 all interventions led to small reductions in waiting time (17%, p < 0.001 for A and C; an 9%, p = 0.322 for B) but also to a small decrease in the number of patients leaving within 4 h of arrival (6.6,7.4,6.2% respectively A-C,p < 0.001). In presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, attendance and waiting time were reduced (40% and 8%; p < 0.001), and the number of people leaving within 4 h of arrival was increased (6%,p < 0.001). During the first lockdown, there was 65% reduction in attendance, 22% reduction in waiting time and 8% increase in number of people leaving within 4 h of arrival (p < 0.001). Crucially, when the lockdown was lifted, there was an increase (6.5%,p < 0.001) in the percentage of people leaving within 4 h, together with a larger (12.5%,p < 0.001) decrease in waiting time. This occurred despite the increase of 49.6%(p < 0.001) in attendance after lockdown ended. CONCLUSIONS: The mixed results pre-COVID-19 (significant improvements in waiting time with some interventions but not improvement in the four-hours target), may be due to indirect impacts of these interventions, where increasing pressure on one part of the ED system affected other parts. This underlines the need for multifaceted interventions and a system-wide approach to improve the pathway of flow through the ED system is necessary. During 2020 and in presence of the COVID-19 epidemic, a shift in public behaviour with anxiety over attending hospitals and higher use of virtual consultations, led to notable drop in UCLH ED attendance and consequential curbing of overcrowding. Importantly, once the lockdown was lifted, although there was an increase in arrivals at UCLH ED, overcrowding metrics were reduced. Thus, the combination of shifted public behaviour and the restructuring changes during COVID-19 epidemic, maybe be able to curb future ED overcrowding, but longer timeframe analysis is required to confirm this

Azithromycin versus standard care in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (ATOMIC2): an open-label, randomised trial

BACKGROUND: The antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, and antiviral properties of azithromycin suggest therapeutic potential against COVID-19. Randomised data in mild-to-moderate disease are not available. We assessed whether azithromycin is effective in reducing hospital admission in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. METHODS: This prospective, open-label, randomised superiority trial was done at 19 hospitals in the UK. We enrolled adults aged at least 18 years presenting to hospitals with clinically diagnosed, highly probable or confirmed COVID-19 infection, with fewer than 14 days of symptoms, who were considered suitable for initial ambulatory management. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to azithromycin (500 mg once daily orally for 14 days) plus standard care or to standard care alone. The primary outcome was death or hospital admission from any cause over the 28 days from randomisation. The primary and safety outcomes were assessed according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381962) and recruitment is closed. FINDINGS: 298 participants were enrolled from June 3, 2020, to Jan 29, 2021. Three participants withdrew consent and requested removal of all data, and three further participants withdrew consent after randomisation, thus, the primary outcome was assessed in 292 participants (145 in the azithromycin group and 147 in the standard care group). The mean age of the participants was 45·9 years (SD 14·9). 15 (10%) participants in the azithromycin group and 17 (12%) in the standard care group were admitted to hospital or died during the study (adjusted OR 0·91 [95% CI 0·43-1·92], p=0·80). No serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: In patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 managed without hospital admission, adding azithromycin to standard care treatment did not reduce the risk of subsequent hospital admission or death. Our findings do not support the use of azithromycin in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford and Pfizer

Azithromycin versus standard care in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (ATOMIC2): an open-label, randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, and antiviral properties of azithromycin suggest therapeutic potential against COVID-19. Randomised data in mild-to-moderate disease are not available. We assessed whether azithromycin is effective in reducing hospital admission in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. METHODS: This prospective, open-label, randomised superiority trial was done at 19 hospitals in the UK. We enrolled adults aged at least 18 years presenting to hospitals with clinically diagnosed, highly probable or confirmed COVID-19 infection, with fewer than 14 days of symptoms, who were considered suitable for initial ambulatory management. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to azithromycin (500 mg once daily orally for 14 days) plus standard care or to standard care alone. The primary outcome was death or hospital admission from any cause over the 28 days from randomisation. The primary and safety outcomes were assessed according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381962) and recruitment is closed. FINDINGS: 298 participants were enrolled from June 3, 2020, to Jan 29, 2021. Three participants withdrew consent and requested removal of all data, and three further participants withdrew consent after randomisation, thus, the primary outcome was assessed in 292 participants (145 in the azithromycin group and 147 in the standard care group). The mean age of the participants was 45·9 years (SD 14·9). 15 (10%) participants in the azithromycin group and 17 (12%) in the standard care group were admitted to hospital or died during the study (adjusted OR 0·91 [95% CI 0·43-1·92], p=0·80). No serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: In patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 managed without hospital admission, adding azithromycin to standard care treatment did not reduce the risk of subsequent hospital admission or death. Our findings do not support the use of azithromycin in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford and Pfizer

Here’s something we prepared earlier: Development, use and reuse of a configurable, inter-disciplinary approach for tackling overcrowding in NHS hospitals

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this record Overcrowding affects hospital emergency departments (ED) worldwide. Most OR studies addressing overcrowding develop bespoke models to explore potential improvements but ignore the organisational context in which they would be implemented, and few influence practice. There is interest in whether reusable models, for ED crowding and in healthcare generally, could have more impact. We developed a configurable approach for tackling ED overcrowding. A reusable queuing model for exploring drivers of ED performance was augmented by a qualitative approach for exploring the implementation context and a generic framework for assessing the likely compatibility of interventions with a given organisation. At the hospital where the approach was developed it directly informed strategy. We describe reuse of the approach at three hospitals. One project was completed and well-received by hospital management, two were terminated partway when data problems surfaced. The primary contribution of this work is its novelty in considering, alongside modelling, evidence-based interventions to overcrowding and qualitative assessment of a hospital’s aptitude and capability to adopt different interventions. A secondary contribution is to further the debate on model reuse, in particular by introducing more complex, modelling-centred approaches that acknowledge how models must relate to tangible interventions with reasonable prospects of being adopted locally.University College London Hospitals (UCLH) NHS Foundation TrustNIHR CLAHRC South West PeninsulaNIHR CLAHRC WessexNIH