Assessing effects of climate change on access to ecosystem services in rural Alaska

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2018Across the planet, climate change is altering the way human societies interact with the environment. Amplified climate change at high latitudes is significantly altering the structure and function of ecosystems, creating challenges and necessitating adaptation by societies in the region that depend on local ecosystem services for their livelihoods. Rural communities in Interior Alaska rely on plants and animals for food, clothing, fuel and shelter. Previous research suggests that climate-induced changes in environmental conditions are challenging the abilities of rural residents to travel across the land and access local resources, but detailed information on the nature and effect of specific conditions is lacking. My objectives were to identify climate-related environmental conditions affecting subsistence access, and then estimate travel and access vulnerability to those environmental conditions. I collaborated with nine Interior Alaskan communities within the Yukon River basin and provided local residents with camera-equipped GPS units to document environmental conditions directly affecting access for 12 consecutive months. I also conducted comprehensive interviews with research participants to incorporate the effects of environmental conditions not documented with GPS units. Among the nine communities collaborating on this research, 18 harvesters documented 479 individual observations of environmental conditions affecting their travel with GPS units. Environmental conditions were categorized into seven condition types. I then ranked categories of conditions using a vulnerability index that incorporated both likelihood (number of times a condition was documented) and sensitivity (magnitude of the effect from the condition) information derived from observations and interviews. Changes in ice conditions, erosion, vegetative community composition and water levels had the greatest overall effect on travel and access to subsistence resources. Environmental conditions that impeded travel corridors, including waterways and areas with easily traversable vegetation (such as grass/sedge meadows and alpine tundra), more strongly influenced communities off the road network than those connected by roads. Combining local ecological knowledge and scientific analysis presents a broad understanding of the effects of climate change on access to subsistence resources, and provides information that collaborating communities can use to optimize adaptation and self-reliance

Tumour burden in early stage Hodgkin's disease: the single most important prognostic factor for outcome after radiotherapy.

One hundred and forty-two patients with Hodgkin's disease PS I or II were treated with total or subtotal nodal irradiation as part of a prospective randomized trial in the Danish National Hodgkin Study during the period 1971-83. They were followed till death or--at the time of this analysis--from 15 to 146 months after initiation of therapy. The initial tumour burden of each patient was assessed, combining tumour size of each involved region and number of regions involved. Tumour burden thus assessed proved to be the single most important prognostic factor with regard to disease free survival. Other known prognostic factors such as number of involved regions, mediastinal size, pathological stage, systemic symptoms, and ESR were related to tumour burden and lost their prognostic significance in a multivariate analysis. The only other factors of independent significance were histologic subtype and, to a lesser extent, sex. Combining tumour burden and histologic subtype made it possible to single out a group of patients with a very poor disease free survival. These patients also had a poorer survival from Hodgkin's disease and thus clearly candidates for additional initial treatment

Long‐term selenium‐yeast supplementation does not affect bone turnover markers: a randomized placebo‐controlled trial

Higher selenium status has been associated with lower bone turnover markers (BTM) in epidemiological studies. However, the long-term impact of selenium supplementation on BTMs has not been studied. We investigated the effects of selenium supplementation on BTMs including osteocalcin (OC), procollagen type I N-terminal propeptide (PINP), collagen type I cross-linked C-telopeptide (CTX), and bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP) in the short (6 months) and long term (5 years). A total of 481 Danish men and women (60–74 years) were randomized to receive placebo-yeast versus 100, 200, or 300 μg selenium as selenium-enriched yeast daily for 5 years. Plasma selenium concentration was measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and BTMs were measured in nonfasted samples at baseline, 6 months, and 5 years. Data were analyzed by ANCOVA to investigate the shape of the dose-response relationships. Covariates included age, body mass index, baseline selenium status, baseline BTM, smoking, alcohol, supplement use, and medication. Plasma selenium concentration (mean 86.5 μg/d at baseline) increased significantly with increasing selenium supplementation to 152.6, 209.1, and 253.7 μg/L after 6 months and remained elevated at 5 years (158.4, 222.4, and 275.9 μg/L for 100, 200, and 300 μg supplemental selenium/d, respectively (p < 0.001)). There was no change in plasma selenium concentration in the placebo-treated group. There was no significant effect of selenium supplementation on OC (6 months p = 0.37; 5 years p = 0.63), PINP (6 months p = 0.37; 5 years p = 0.79), CTX (6 months p = 0.91; 5 years p = 0.58) or BALP (6 months p = 0.17; 5 years p = 0.53). The relatively replete baseline selenium status in the study participants may explain this lack of effect. Testing in more deficient populations may provide further insights into the impact of selenium supplementation on bone health. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR)

LensWatch: I. Resolved HST Observations and Constraints on the Strongly-Lensed Type Ia Supernova 2022qmx ("SN Zwicky")

Supernovae (SNe) that have been multiply-imaged by gravitational lensing are rare and powerful probes for cosmology. Each detection is an opportunity to develop the critical tools and methodologies needed as the sample of lensed SNe increases by orders of magnitude with the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. The latest such discovery is of the quadruply-imaged Type Ia SN 2022qmx (aka, "SN Zwicky"; Goobar et al. 2022) at z = 0.3544. SN Zwicky was discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) in spatially unresolved data. Here we present follow-up Hubble Space Telescope observations of SN Zwicky, the first from the multi-cycle "LensWatch" program (www.lenswatch.org). We measure photometry for each of the four images of SN Zwicky, which are resolved in three WFC3/UVIS filters (F475W, F625W, F814W) but unresolved with WFC3/IR F160W, and produce an analysis of the lensing system using a variety of independent lens modeling methods. We find consistency between time delays estimated with the single epoch of HST photometry and the lens model predictions constrained through the multiple image positions, with both inferring time delays of <1 day. Our lens models converge to an Einstein radius of (0.168+0.009-0.005)", the smallest yet seen in a lensed SN. The "standard candle" nature of SN Zwicky provides magnification estimates independent of the lens modeling that are brighter by ~1.5 mag and ~0.8 mag for two of the four images, suggesting significant microlensing and/or additional substructure beyond the flexibility of our image-position mass models

Preservation of quality of life in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–positive metastatic breast cancer treated with tucatinib or placebo when added to trastuzumab and capecitabine (HER2CLIMB trial)

AIMS: In HER2CLIMB, tucatinib significantly improved progression-free and overall survival in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer. We evaluated the impact of tucatinib on health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) in HER2CLIMB. METHODS: Patients were randomised 2:1 to tucatinib or placebo combined with trastuzumab and capecitabine. Starting with protocol version 7, the EuroQol 5 Dimensions 5 Levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire and EQ visual analogue scale (VAS) were administered at day 1 of cycle 1, every two cycles during cycles 3–9, every three cycles during cycle 12 and thereafter and at each patient's 30-day follow-up visit. RESULTS: Among 364 patients eligible for HR-QoL assessment, 331 (91%) completed ≥1 assessment. EQ-VAS scores were similar for both arms at baseline and maintained throughout treatment. EQ-5D-5L scores were similar between the treatment arms, stable throughout therapy and worsened after discontinuing treatment. Risk of meaningful deterioration (≥7 points) on EQ-VAS was reduced 19% in the tucatinib vs. placebo arm (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.55, 1.18); the median (95% CI) time to deterioration was not reached in the tucatinib arm and was 5.8 months (4.3, -) in the placebo arm. Among patients with brain metastases (n = 164), risk of meaningful deterioration on EQ-VAS was reduced 49% in the tucatinib arm (HR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.28, 0.93); the median (95% CI) time to deterioration was not reached in the tucatinib arm and was 5.5 months (4.2, -) in the placebo arm. CONCLUSIONS: HR-QoL was preserved for patients with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer who were treated with tucatinib added to trastuzumab and capecitabine and maintained longer with tucatinib therapy than without it among those with brain metastases

Adjuvant breast cancer chemotherapy during late-trimester pregnancy: not quite a standard of care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diagnosis of breast cancer during pregnancy was formerly considered an indication for abortion. The pendulum has since swung to the other extreme, with most reviews now rejecting termination while endorsing immediate anthracycline-based therapy for any pregnant patient beyond the first trimester. To assess the evidence for this radical change in thinking, a review of relevant studies in the fields of breast cancer chemotherapy, pregnancy, and drug safety was conducted.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Accumulating evidence for the short-term safety of anthracycline-based chemotherapy during late-trimester pregnancy represents a clear advance over the traditional norm of therapeutic abortion. Nonetheless, the emerging orthodoxy favoring routine chemotherapy during gestation should continue to be questioned on several grounds: (1) the assumed difference in maternal survival accruing from chemotherapy administered earlier – i.e., during pregnancy, rather than after delivery – has not been quantified; (2) the added survival benefit of adjuvant cytotoxic therapy prescribed within the hormone-rich milieu of pregnancy remains presumptive, particularly for ER-positive disease; (3) the maternal survival benefit associated with modified adjuvant regimens (e.g., weekly schedules, omission of taxanes, etc.) has not been proven equivalent to standard (e.g., post-delivery) regimens; and (4) the long-term transplacental and transgenerational hazards of late-trimester chemotherapy are unknown.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Although an incrementally increased risk of cancer-specific mortality is impossible to exclude, mothers who place a high priority on the lifelong well-being of their progeny may be informed that deferring optimal chemotherapy until after delivery is still an option to consider, especially in ER-positive, node-negative and/or last-trimester disease.</p

The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV – insights from clinical trial simulation

BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%–77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevented in circumcised males which were attributable to STI was unlikely to be more than 10% to 20%. CONCLUSION: Estimation of efficacy, attributable fraction and effectiveness leads to improved understanding of trial results, gives trial results greater external validity and is essential to determine the broader public health impact of circumcision to men and women