Risk Prediction Models for Depression in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Objective: To develop streamlined Risk Prediction Models (Manto RPMs) for late-life depression. Design: Prospective study. Setting: The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) study. Participants: Participants were community residing adults aged 55 years or older. Measurements: The outcome was presence of depression at a 2-year follow up evaluation. Risk fac-tors were identified after a literature review of longitudinal studies. Separate RPMs were developed in the 29,116 participants who were not depressed at baseline and in the combined sample of 39,439 of non-depressed and depressed subjects. Models derived from the combined sample were used to develop a web-based risk calculator. Results: The authors identified 129 predictors of late-life depression after reviewing 227 studies. In non-depressed participants at baseline, the RPMs based on regression and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalty (34 and 58 predictors, respectively) and the RPM based on Artificial Neural Networks (124 predictors) had a similar perfor-mance (AUC: 0.730-0.743). In the combined depressed and non-depressed par-ticipants at baseline, the RPM based on neural networks (35 predictors; AUC: 0.807; 95% CI: 0.80-0.82) and the model based on linear regression and LASSO penalty (32 predictors; AUC: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79-0.82) had satisfactory accu-racy. Conclusions: The Manto RPMs can identify community-dwelling older individuals at risk for developing depression over 2 years. A web-based calcula-tor based on the streamlined Manto model is freely available at https://manto. unife.it/for use by individuals, clinicians, and policy makers and may be used to target prevention interventions at the individual and the population levels

FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

Background: About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. Objective: The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. Methods: FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject\u2019s fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. Results: The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. Conclusions: FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR)

Development of a clinical prediction model for the onset of functional decline in people aged 65-75 years: Pooled analysis of four European cohort studies

Background: Identifying those people at increased risk of early functional decline in activities of daily living (ADL) is essential for initiating preventive interventions. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for onset of functional decline in ADL in three years of follow-up in older people of 65-75 years old. Methods: Four population-based cohort studies were pooled for the analysis: ActiFE-ULM (Germany), ELSA (United Kingdom), InCHIANTI (Italy), LASA (Netherlands). Included participants were 65-75 years old at baseline and reported no limitations in functional ability in ADL at baseline. Functional decline was assessed with two items on basic ADL and three items on instrumental ADL. Participants who reported at least some limitations at three-year follow-up on any of the five items were classified as experiencing functional decline. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model, with subsequent bootstrapping for optimism-correction. We applied internal-external cross-validation by alternating the data from the four cohort studies to assess the discrimination and calibration across the cohorts. Results: Two thousand five hundred sixty community-dwelling people were included in the analyses (mean age 69.7 ± 3.0 years old, 47.4% female) of whom 572 (22.3%) reported functional decline at three-year follow-up. The final prediction model included 10 out of 22 predictors: age, handgrip strength, gait speed, five-repeated chair stands time (non-linear association), body mass index, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis, and depressive symptoms. The optimism-corrected model showed good discrimination with a C statistic of 0.72. The calibration intercept was 0.06 and the calibration slope was 1.05. Internal-external cross-validation showed consistent performance of the model across the four cohorts. Conclusions: Based on pooled cohort data analyses we were able to show that the onset of functional decline in ADL in three years in older people aged 65-75 years can be predicted by specific physical performance measures, age, body mass index, presence of depressive symptoms, and chronic conditions. The prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration, which remained stable across the four cohorts, supporting external validity of our findings

The p53 Codon 72 Pro/Pro Genotype Identifies Poor-Prognosis Neuroblastoma Patients: Correlation with Reduced Apoptosis and Enhanced Senescence by the p53-72P Isoform.

The p53 gene is rarely mutated in neuroblastoma, but codon 72 polymorphism that modulates its proapoptotic activity might influence cancer risk and clinical outcome. We investigated whether this polymorphism affects neuroblastoma risk and disease outcome and assessed the biologic effects of the p53-72R and p53-72P isoforms in p53-null cells. Comparison of 288 healthy subjects and 286 neuroblastoma patients revealed that the p53-72 polymorphism had no significant impact on the risk of developing neuroblastoma; however, patients with the Pro/Pro genotype had a shorter survival than those with the Arg/Arg or the Arg/Pro genotypes even in the stage 3 and 4 subgroup without MYCN amplification. By Cox regression analysis, the p53 Pro/Pro genotype seems to be an independent marker of poor prognosis (hazard ratio = 2.74; 95% confidence interval = 1.14\u20136.55, P = .014) together with clinical stage, MYCN status, and age at diagnosis. In vitro, p53-72P was less effective than p53-72R in inducing apoptosis and inhibiting survival of p53-null LAN-1 cells treated with etoposide, topotecan, or ionizing radiation but not taxol. By contrast, p53-72P was more effective in promoting p21-dependent accelerated senescence, alone or in the presence of etoposide. Thus, the p53-72 Pro/Pro genotype might be a marker of poor outcome independent of MYCN amplification, possibly improving risk stratification. Moreover, the lower apoptosis and the enhanced accelerated senescence by the p53-72P isoform in response to DNA damage suggest that patients with neuroblastoma with the p53-72 Pro/Pro genotype may benefit from therapeutic protocols that do not rely only on cytotoxic drugs that function, in part, through p53 activation

The largest multicentre data collection on prepectoral breast reconstruction: The iBAG study

Background and Objectives: In the last years, prepectoral breast reconstruction has increased its popularity, becoming a standard reconstructive technique by preserving pectoralis major anatomy and functionality. Nevertheless, the lack of solid and extensive data negatively impacts on surgeons\u2019 correct information about postoperative complication rates and proper patient selection. This study aims to collect the largest evidence on this procedure. Methods: A multicentre retrospective audit, promoted by the Barcelona Hospital, collected the experience of 30 centers on prepectoral breast reconstruction with Braxon ADM. The study had the scientific support of INPECS and IIB societies which provided the online database Clinapsis. Results: A total of 1450 procedures were retrospectively collected in a 6-year period. Mean age 52.4 years, BMI 23.9, follow-up 22.7 months. Reconstruction was carried out after a tumor in 77.1% of the cases, 20.1% had prophylactic surgery, 2.8% had revisions. Diabetes, smoke, and immunosuppression had an influence on complications occurrence, as well as implant weight. Capsular contracture was associated with postoperative radiotherapy, but the overall rate was low (2.1%). Complications led to implant loss in 6.5% of the cases. Conclusions: The international Braxon Audit Group multicentre data collection represents a milestone in the field of breast reconstruction, extensively improving the knowledge of this procedure

REDISCOVER International Guidelines on the Perioperative Care of Surgical Patients With Borderline-resectable and Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

OBJECTIVE: The REDISCOVER consensus conference aimed at developing and validate guidelines on the perioperative care of patients with borderline resectable (BR-) and locally advanced (LA) pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Coupled with improvements in chemotherapy and radiation, the contemporary approach to pancreatic surgery supports resection of BR-PDAC and, to a lesser extent, LA-PDAC. Guidelines outlining the selection and perioperative care for these patients are lacking.METHODS: The Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) methodology was used to develop the REDISCOVER guidelines and create recommendations. The Delphi approach was used to reach consensus (agreement ≥80%) among experts. Recommendations were approved after a debate and vote among international experts in pancreatic surgery and pancreatic cancer management. A Validation Committee used the AGREE II-GRS tool to assess the methodological quality of the guidelines. Moreover, an independent multidisciplinary advisory group revised the statements to ensure adherence to non-surgical guidelines.RESULTS: Overall, 34 recommendations were created targeting centralization, training, staging, patient selection for surgery, possibility of surgery in uncommon scenarios, timing of surgery, avoidance of vascular reconstruction, details of vascular resection/reconstruction, arterial divestment, frozen section histology of perivascular tissue, extent of lymphadenectomy, anticoagulation prophylaxis and role of minimally invasive surgery. The level of evidence was however low for 29 of 34 clinical questions. Participants agreed that the most conducive mean to promptly advance our understanding in this field is to establish an international registry addressing this patient population ( https://rediscover.unipi.it/ ).CONCLUSIONS: The REDISCOVER guidelines provide clinical recommendations pertaining to pancreatectomy with vascular resection for patients with BR- and LA-PDAC, and serve as the basis of a new international registry for this patient population.</p

REDISCOVER International Guidelines on the Perioperative Care of Surgical Patients With Borderline-resectable and Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

OBJECTIVE: The REDISCOVER consensus conference aimed at developing and validate guidelines on the perioperative care of patients with borderline resectable (BR-) and locally advanced (LA) pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Coupled with improvements in chemotherapy and radiation, the contemporary approach to pancreatic surgery supports resection of BR-PDAC and, to a lesser extent, LA-PDAC. Guidelines outlining the selection and perioperative care for these patients are lacking.METHODS: The Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) methodology was used to develop the REDISCOVER guidelines and create recommendations. The Delphi approach was used to reach consensus (agreement ≥80%) among experts. Recommendations were approved after a debate and vote among international experts in pancreatic surgery and pancreatic cancer management. A Validation Committee used the AGREE II-GRS tool to assess the methodological quality of the guidelines. Moreover, an independent multidisciplinary advisory group revised the statements to ensure adherence to non-surgical guidelines.RESULTS: Overall, 34 recommendations were created targeting centralization, training, staging, patient selection for surgery, possibility of surgery in uncommon scenarios, timing of surgery, avoidance of vascular reconstruction, details of vascular resection/reconstruction, arterial divestment, frozen section histology of perivascular tissue, extent of lymphadenectomy, anticoagulation prophylaxis and role of minimally invasive surgery. The level of evidence was however low for 29 of 34 clinical questions. Participants agreed that the most conducive mean to promptly advance our understanding in this field is to establish an international registry addressing this patient population ( https://rediscover.unipi.it/ ).CONCLUSIONS: The REDISCOVER guidelines provide clinical recommendations pertaining to pancreatectomy with vascular resection for patients with BR- and LA-PDAC, and serve as the basis of a new international registry for this patient population.</p

One-Step Prepectoral Breast Reconstruction With Dermal Matrix–Covered Implant Compared to Submuscular Implantation: Functional and Cost Evaluation

The aim of this study was to compare the functional and economical outcomes of the prepectoral breast reconstruction (PPBR) versus the subectoral one. PPBR entailed significantly lower postoperative pain and faster upper limb functional recovery than subpectoral procedure. Moreover, PPBR largely reduced the need for symmetrization. Therefore, PPBR was also economically advantageous over traditional implant reconstruction. Background: The breast reconstructive subpectoral technique commonly leads to functional consequences. Recently, a new conservative prepectoral breast reconstruction (PPBR) technique was proposed and its surgical safety and aesthetic effectiveness proved. The aim of this prospective nonrandomized study was to compare the functional and economical outcomes of the PPBR procedure versus the subpectoral one. Patients and Methods: From February 2015 to September 2016, 86 patients underwent mastectomy with immediate implant-based reconstruction. Thirty-nine patients were assigned to group 1 and received prepectoral acellular dermal matrix–wrapped implant reconstruction. The remaining 45 patients were assigned to group 2 and received a subpectoral implant or tissue expander. We recorded the operating time, length of hospital stay, analgesic consumption, postoperative pain, upper limb function, esthetic satisfaction, and quality of life. Additional surgical procedures for reconstruction completion or contralateral operation for symmetrization were also recorded. Results: Compared to group 2 patients, group 1 patients showed less postoperative pain and faster upper limb functional recovery. Patients in group 1 also recorded a lower analgesic consumption and an earlier return to usual work. Moreover, the muscle-sparing technique improved aesthetic outcomes and largely reduced the need for symmetrization. Conclusion: Immediate breast reconstruction by using prepectoral muscle-sparing acellular dermal matrix–wrapped implant resulted in lower pain intensity and significant upper limb functional advantages compared to submuscular implant placement. Furthermore, when considering a series of ascertained benefits, PPBR is also economically advantageous, although future studies should better define its cost-effectiveness

A rule-based framework for risk assessment in the health domain

Risk assessment is an important decision support task in many domains, including health, engineering, process management, and economy. There is a growing interest in automated methods for risk assessment. These methods should be able to process information efficiently and with little user involvement. Currently, from the scientific literature in the health domain, there is availability of evidence-based knowledge about specific risk factors. On the other hand, there is no automatic procedure to exploit this available knowledge in order to create a general risk assessment tool which can combine the available quantitative data about risk factors and their impact on the corresponding risk. We present a Framework for the Assessment of Risk of adverse Events (FARE) and its first concrete applications FRAT-up and DRAT-up, which were used for fall and depression risk assessment in older persons and validated on four and three European epidemiological datasets, respectively. FARE consists of i) a novel formal ontology called On2Risk; and ii) a logical and probabilistic rule-based model. The ontology was designed to represent qualitative and quantitative data about risks in a general, structured and machine-readable manner so that this data may be concretely exploited by risk assessment algorithms. We describe the structure of the FARE model in the form of logic and probabilistic rules. We show how when starting from machine-readable data about risk factors, like the data contained in On2Risk, an instance of the algorithm can be automatically constructed and used to estimate the risk of an adverse event

walking between free will and determinism

Walking is a fundamental activity of human beings. Any simple movement is the result of complex interactions between the external environment and the individual cognitive dynamics. The proposedmodels havemainly considered a deterministic point of view to describe the choice of the pedestrians trajectories and to study the critical congested states. But recently it has been pointed out the importance of the individual free will in determining both the microscopic pedestrian behavior and the emergent properties of the crowd dynamics. In this paper we discuss a hierarchical model for pedestrian mobility whose emergent dynamical properties are determined by the bottom-up and top-down actions among the microscopic-level (free-will level), the mesoscopic level (deterministic level) andmacroscopic level (cognitive level). The "mobbers" have an internal cognitive dynamics, performboth physical and information based interactions using a vision mechanism and are able to compute a cognitive map representation of the geometrical space. The model has been implemented in the DISTRIMOBS simulator that is designed to simulate a whole city on a distributed architecture. The main properties of the model are discussed and some applications are presented