A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations.

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem

Age-related changes in the interference between cognitive task components and concurrent sensorimotor coordination

Continuous sensorimotor coordinations (CSCs) such as driving, walking, using control interfaces or maintaining the body's balance are often performed alongside concurrent cognitive tasks involving attention and executive function. A range of these task combinations show interference, particularly in older adults, but the timing, direction and reciprocity of interference is not yet understood at the level of the tasks' information-processing operations. This paper compares the chronometry of dual task interference between a visual oddball task and a continuous visuomanual tracking task performed by young and older adults. The oddball task's constituent operations were identified using electrophysiological correlates, and deviations in the tracking task reflected perturbations to state monitoring and adjustment characteristics of CSC tasks. Despite instructions to give equal priority to both tasks, older participants maintained a high level of resourcing of the oddball task when dual tasking whereas young participants reduced resourcing to accommodate the demands of the tracking task. Older participants had a longer period of tracking inaccuracy during the executive function component of the oddball task, and unlike in young participants, this decrement was also observed when the stimulus was not a target and the executive function of updating the target tally was not required. These detailed chronometric results clarify that age-related amplification of CSC-cognitive interference are largely due to greater inflexibility in task pri-oritization. Prioritization of the cognitive task over the CSC in this type of dual tasking may have safety implications in everyday task settings

Sea anemones may thrive in a high CO2 world

Increased seawater pCO 2, and in turn 'ocean acidification' (OA), is predicted to profoundly impact marine ecosystem diversity and function this century. Much research has already focussed on calcifying reef-forming corals (Class: Anthozoa) that appear particularly susceptible to OA via reduced net calcification. However, here we show that OA-like conditions can simultaneously enhance the ecological success of non-calcifying anthozoans, which not only play key ecological and biogeochemical roles in present day benthic ecosystems but also represent a model organism should calcifying anthozoans exist as less calcified (soft-bodied) forms in future oceans. Increased growth (abundance and size) of the sea anemone (Anemonia viridis) population was observed along a natural CO 2 gradient at Vulcano, Italy. Both gross photosynthesis (P G) and respiration (R) increased with pCO 2 indicating that the increased growth was, at least in part, fuelled by bottom up (CO 2 stimulation) of metabolism. The increase of P G outweighed that of R and the genetic identity of the symbiotic microalgae (Symbiodinium spp.) remained unchanged (type A19) suggesting proximity to the vent site relieved CO 2 limitation of the anemones' symbiotic microalgal population. Our observations of enhanced productivity with pCO 2, which are consistent with previous reports for some calcifying corals, convey an increase in fitness that may enable non-calcifying anthozoans to thrive in future environments, i.e. higher seawater pCO 2. Understanding how CO 2-enhanced productivity of non- (and less-) calcifying anthozoans applies more widely to tropical ecosystems is a priority where such organisms can dominate benthic ecosystems, in particular following localized anthropogenic stress. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem

A novel membrane inlet-infrared gas analysis (MI-IRGA) system for monitoring of seawater carbonate system

Increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are driving changes in ocean chemistry at unprecedented rates resulting in ocean acidification, which is predicted to impact the functioning of marine biota, in particular of marine calcifiers. However, the precise understanding of such impacts relies on an analytical system that determines the mechanisms and impact of elevated pCO 2 on the physiology of organisms at scales from species to entire communities. Recent work has highlighted the need within experiments to control all aspects of the carbonate system to resolve the role of different inorganic carbon species on the physiological responses observed across taxa in real-time. Presently however, there are limited options available for continuous quantification of physiological responses, coupled with real-time calculation of the seawater carbonate chemistry system within microcosm environments. Here, we describe and characterise the performance of a novel pCO 2 membrane equilibrium system (the Membrane Inlet Infra-Red Gas Analyser, MI-IRGA) integrated with a continuous pH and oxygen monitoring platform. The system can detect changes in the seawater carbonate chemistry and determine organism physiological responses, while providing the user with real-time control over the microcosm system. We evaluate the systems control, response time and associated error, and demonstrate the flexibility of the system to operate under field conditions and within a laboratory. We use the system to measure physiological parameters (photosynthesis and respiration) for the corals Pocillipora damicornis and Porites cylindrica; in doing so we present a novel dataset examining the interactive role of temperature, light and pCO 2 on the physiology of P. cylindrica