Risk, Uncertainty, and Super-Risk

Risk is a pervasive feature of law and public policy. Decision-making in these domains often takes place in the absence of certainty and with awareness that errors may be made and predictions may fail. Within law—as within the social and physical sciences, medicine, economics, finance, and countless other domains—a primary focus of practical and scholarly inquiries is the extent to which risks can be measured and managed. In each of these domains, risk analysis typically employs the basic tools of decision theory (probability and utility) to measure the likelihood as well as the costs and benefits associated with possible outcomes. Risk analysis also often makes use of the familiar (but confusing) distinction between decisions made in conditions of “risk” (roughly, the relevant likelihoods and costs are quantifiable) and decisions made in conditions of “uncertainty” (roughly, the possibilities are either unknown or not amenable to quantification). Beginning with the risk-uncertainty distinction, but altering its terminology, we argue that there is a fundamentally important type of risk that has been systematically ignored. We call it “super-risk.” Super-risk occurs when, at the time of decision, decision-makers believe they are in conditions of risk (what we call “actuarial decision-making”), but they do not know whether they are in an actuarial or an uncertain environment. Super-risk gives rise to a particular type of inferential problem, with significant practical consequences, when decision-makers proceed under the assumption that they are in an actuarial environment but they are in fact in an uncertain one. Super-risk has the potential to arise in any decision-making domain with uncertain outcomes, but it is more prone to arise with decision-making in domains such as law, public policy, economics, finance, and the social sciences rather than in domains such as the physical sciences, medicine, and insurance. Our goal in this Article is to introduce the general idea of super-risk and to explain its features and sources

Risk, Uncertainty, and Super-Risk

Risk is a pervasive feature of law and public policy. Decision-making in these domains often takes place in the absence of certainty and with awareness that errors may be made and predictions may fail. Within law—as within the social and physical sciences, medicine, economics, finance, and countless other domains—a primary focus of practical and scholarly inquiries is the extent to which risks can be measured and managed. In each of these domains, risk analysis typically employs the basic tools of decision theory (probability and utility) to measure the likelihood as well as the costs and benefits associated with possible outcomes. Risk analysis also often makes use of the familiar (but confusing) distinction between decisions made in conditions of “risk” (roughly, the relevant likelihoods and costs are quantifiable) and decisions made in conditions of “uncertainty” (roughly, the possibilities are either unknown or not amenable to quantification). Beginning with the risk-uncertainty distinction, but altering its terminology, we argue that there is a fundamentally important type of risk that has been systematically ignored. We call it “super-risk.” Super-risk occurs when, at the time of decision, decision-makers believe they are in conditions of risk (what we call “actuarial decision-making”), but they do not know whether they are in an actuarial or an uncertain environment. Super-risk gives rise to a particular type of inferential problem, with significant practical consequences, when decision-makers proceed under the assumption that they are in an actuarial environment but they are in fact in an uncertain one. Super-risk has the potential to arise in any decision-making domain with uncertain outcomes, but it is more prone to arise with decision-making in domains such as law, public policy, economics, finance, and the social sciences rather than in domains such as the physical sciences, medicine, and insurance. Our goal in this Article is to introduce the general idea of super-risk and to explain its features and sources

Super-attracting periodic orbits for a classical third order method

AbstractWe use a classical third order root-finding iterative method for approximating roots of nonlinear equations. We present a procedure for constructing polynomials so that super-attracting periodic orbits of any prescribed period occur when this method is applied. This note can be considered as the second part of our previous study [S. Amat, S. Busquier, S. Plaza, A construction of attracting periodic orbits for some classical third order iterative methods, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 189(1–2) (2006) 22–33]

An integrative framework for tailoring virtual reality based motor rehabilitation after stroke

Stroke is a leading cause of life-lasting motor impairments, undermining the quality of life of stroke survivors and their families, and representing a major chal lenge for a world population that is ageing at a dramatic rate. Important technologi cal developments and neuroscientific discoveries have contributed to a better under standing of stroke recovery. Virtual Reality (VR) arises as a powerful tool because it allows merging contributions from engineering, human computer interaction, reha bilitation medicine and neuroscience to propose novel and more effective paradigms for motor rehabilitation. However, despite evidence of the benefits of these novel training paradigms, most of them still rely on the choice of particular technologi cal solutions tailored to specific subsets of patients. Here we present an integrative framework that utilizes concepts of human computer confluence to 1) enable VR neu rorehabilitation through interface technologies, making VR rehabilitation paradigms accessible to wide populations of patients, and 2) create VR training environments that allow the personalization of training to address the individual needs of stroke patients. The use of these features is demonstrated in pilot studies using VR training environments in different configurations: as an online low-cost version, with a myo electric robotic orthosis, and in a neurofeedback paradigm. Finally, we argue about the need of coupling VR approaches and neurocomputational modelling to further study stroke and its recovery process, aiding on the design of optimal rehabilitation programs tailored to the requirements of each user.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Neurorehabilitation Training Toolkit (NTT): A Novel Worldwide Accessible Motor Training Approach for At-Home Rehabilitation after Stroke

After stroke, enduring rehabilitation is required for maximum recovery, and ideally throughout life to prevent functional deterioration. Hence we developed a new concept for at-home low-cost motor rehabilitation, the NTT, an Internet-based interactive system for upper-limb rehabilitation. In this paper we present the NTT design concepts, its implementation and a proof of concept study with 10 healthy participants. The NTT brings together concepts of optimal learning, engagement, and storytelling to deliver a personalized training to its users. In this study we evaluate the feasibility of NTT as a tool capable of automatically assessing and adapting to its user. This is achieved by means of a psychometric study where we show that the NTT is able to assess movement kinematics—movement smoothness, range of motion, arm displacement and arm coordination—in healthy users. Subsequently, a modeling approach is presented to understand how the measured movement kinematics relate to training parameters, and how these can be modified to adapt the training to meet the needs of patients. Finally, an adaptive algorithm for the personalization of training considering motivational and performance aspects is proposed. In the next phase we will deploy and evaluate the NTT with stroke patients at their homes

Thalassiosira pseudonana and Skeletonema costatum biomass optimization: cultivation, harvesting, extraction of oils and biodiesel and pelletization of the residue

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUGMicroalgae are one of the most promising feedstocks for biofuel production that can solve the energy crisis, climate change, and the depletion of fossil fuels. Biorefineries have production capacity bottlenecks that prevent them from being economically profitable, without leaving aside the environmental safety of by-products. This research aims to analyze critical stages such as harvesting or lipid extraction from two microalgae species currently unknown, such as Thalassiosira pseudonana and Skeletonema costatum. Inorganic flocculation with a low concentration of iron or aluminum salts (FeCl3 and Al2(SO4)3) was achieved to recover >60% biomass in just 20 min in both cases. Lipids extractions through chloroform: methanol (solvent ratio 2:1) obtained low performance due to the ionic strength medium. The fatty acid composition of the algae extracts showed that stearic acid (C18:0) and palmitoleic acid (C16:1) were predominant in both species. In addition, residues from the lipid extraction process were used for the manufacture of pellets. The data collected showed that these solid biofuels should be combined with other biomass typologies if the end-use are biomass boilers. The development of these studies provides new information on different microalgae species and their potential to use their biomass through an integrated utilization

Normas Internacionales de Auditoria (NIA) : NIA 500 la evaluación de auditoria como elemento fundamental para emitir una opinión sobre los estados financieros de la compañia Sander"S Rosales,S.A. año 2016

Las normas internacionales de auditoria son directrices generales que ayudan a los auditores a cumplir con sus responsabilidades profesionales en la auditoría de estados financieros. Ello incluye la consideración de capacidades profesionales como lo son la competencia y la independencia, los requisitos de informes y la evidencia. Los objetivos de las normas internacionales de auditoria es proporcionar un mayor nivel de aseguramiento en lo que respecta a la uniformidad de la práctica de auditoría en todo el mundo. Nuestro trabajo se base principalmente en la evidencia de auditoria como elemento fundamental en la opinión de un auditor. La evidencia es cualquier tipo de datos que utiliza el auditor para determinar si la información que está auditando ha sido declarada de acuerdo con el criterio establecido. La importancia de la evidencia de auditoría se basa en la calidad de la información que soporta de cada una de las transacciones de los registros contables, adquirida por el auditor a través de las técnicas y procedimientos de auditoría ejecutados en la revisión. La evidencia es tan importante debido que sobre ella recae el fundamento del dictamen de la opinión del auditor. Posterior procedemos a conceptualizar los procedimientos de auditoria, son mecanismos o métodos básicos disponibles, aplicados o utilizados por el auditor durante el curso de su trabajo, para obtener la evidencia necesaria a fin de formar su juicio profesional. La fuente de los procedimientos de auditoría, son los diferentes sistemas de la organización, el control, la contabilidad y en general los detalles de operación del negocio, lo que hacen imposible establecer sistemas rígidos de prueba para el examen de los estados financieros. Por esta razón, el auditor deberá diseñar y desempeñar los procedimientos adicionales de auditoría cuya naturaleza, oportunidad y extensión, se basen en, y respondan a, los riesgos evaluados de representación errónea de importancia relativa a nivel aseveración. Posteriormente conceptualizaremos los papeles de trabajos que soportan la evidencia de auditoria, los papeles de trabajo son el medio para acumular toda la evidencia que necesita el auditor para emitir una opinión profesional, la documentación de auditoría es el recurso más importante para demostrar por medio de documentos que una auditoría fue realizada de forma adecuada. Finalmente se desarrolla un caso práctico, Compañía Sanders Rosales, S.A donde la actividad principal de la compañía es la prestación de servicios de construcción de obras verticales, horizontales (Residenciales) y alquiler de equipos, a través de contratos suscritos con clientes, en este caso delimitaremos descripción del perfil del negocio, el alcance de auditoria, evidencias de obtenidas y el dictamen de auditoría. Se concluye que la evidencia de auditoría es elemental y fundamental al momento que el auditor se encuentra en el proceso de revisión, lo que conlleva a que se realice una buena planeación de la auditoría así como establecer que procedimientos a desarrollar por la cuentas con importación relativa en los Estados Financieros y dar una opinión sustentada en las evidencias obtenidas a través del proceso de revisión

Virtual reality with customized positive stimuli in a cognitive-motor rehabilitation task: a feasibility study with subacute stroke patients with mild cognitive impairment

Virtual Reality applications for integrated cognitive and motor stroke rehabilitation show promise for providing more comprehensive rehabilitation programs. However, we are still missing evidence on its impact in comparison with standard rehabilitation, particularly in patients with cognitive impairment. Additionally, little is known on how specific stimuli in the virtual environment affect task performance and its consequence on recovery. Here we investigate the impact in stroke recovery of a virtual cognitive-motor task customized with positive stimuli, in comparison to standard rehabilitation. The positive stimuli were images based on individual preferences, and self-selected music (half of the sessions). 13 participants in the subacute stage of stroke, with cognitive and motor deficits, were allocated to one of two groups (VR, Control). Motor and cognitive outcomes were assessed at end of treatment (4-6 weeks) and at a 4-week followup. Both groups showed significant improvements over time in functional ability during task performance, but without changes in motor impairment. Cognitive outcomes were modest in both groups. For participants in the VR group, the score in the task was significantly higher in sessions with music. There were no statistical differences between groups at end of treatment and follow-up. The impact of VR therapy was lower than in similar studies with stroke patients without cognitive deficits. This study is a first step towards understanding how VR could be shaped to address the particular needs of this population.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio