Panel discussion

"The Importance of Being Predictable" by John B. Taylor -- "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty" by Ben S. Bernanke -- "The Importance of Being Predictable" by William PooleMonetary policy

Panel discussion monetary policy modeling: where are we and where should we be going?

Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Econometric models

Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables to their foreign counterparts and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where foreign variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated

The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint. The model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature. In particular, the framework exhibits a "financial accelerator", in that endogenous developments in credit markets work to amplify and propagate shocks to the macroeconomy.BUSINESS CYCLES ; MONETARY POLICY

The risk‐taking channel in the United States : A GVAR approach

Using a panel of large U.S. banks, we examine banks' risk‐taking behaviour in response to monetary policy shocks. Our investigation provides support for the presence of a risk‐taking channel: banks' non‐performing loans increase in the medium to long‐run following an expansionary monetary policy shock. We also find that banks' capital structure plays an important role in explaining bank's risk‐taking appetite. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks emanating from larger banks spill over to the rest of the sector but no such effect is observed for smaller banks. These findings are confirmed for banks' Z‐score

Investments in recessions

We argue that the strategy literature has been virtually silent on the issue of recessions, and that this constitutes a regrettable sin of omission. A key route to rectify this omission is to focus on how recessions affect investment behavior, and thereby firms stocks of assets and capabilities which ultimately will affect competitive outcomes. In the present paper we aim to contribute by analyzing how two key aspects of recessions, demand reductions and reductions in credit availability, affect three different types of investments: physical capital, R&D and innovation and human- and organizational capital. We point out that recessions not only affect the level of investment, but also the composition of investments. Some of these effects are quite counterintuitive. For example, investments in R&D are more sensitive to credit constraints than physical capital is. Investments in human capital grow as demand falls, and both R&D and human capital investments show important nonlinearities with respect to changes in demand