The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2,580 widely used models is analysed. When based on daily data, the profitability of technical stock trading has steadily declined since 1960 and has become unprofitable over the 1990s. However, when based on 30-minutes data the same models produce an average gross return of 8.8 percent per year between 1983 and 2000. These results do not change substantially when trading is simulated over six subperiods. Those 25 models which performed best over the most recent subperiod produce a significantly higher gross return over the subsequent subperiod than do all models together. Over the out-of-sample period 2001-2006 the 2,580 models perform much worse than between 1983 and 2000. This result could be due to stock markets becoming more efficient or to stock price trends shifting from 30-minutes prices to prices of higher frequencies

The Interaction between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics

This study analyses the interaction between the aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and stock price fluctuations in the S&P 500 futures market. It examines 2,580 widely used trading systems based on 30-minutes prices. The sample comprises trend-following as well as contrarian models. It shows that technical trading exerts an excess demand pressure on the stock market. This is because technical models produce clusters of trading signals that are on the same side of the market, either buying or selling. Initial stock price changes triggered by news are strengthened by a sequence of trading signals produced by trend-following models. Once 90 percent of the models have signalled a particular position, stock prices tend to move in the direction congruent with the position-holding of the models. This phenomenon has to be attributed to the transactions of non-technical traders, perhaps amateurs. Once price movements lose their momentum, contrarian technical models contribute to reversals of the trend

Financial Crisis Impact on the Lithuanian Stock Market

Nagrinėjama Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinkos būklės kitimo dėl susidariusios finansų krizės problema. Nustatomi Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinkos ypatumai, veiksniai, darantys didelį poveikį OMXV indekso kitimui. Pateikiamos Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinkos 2003–2010 m. charakteristikos, pritaikomas slankiųjų vidurkių metodas. Analizuojamas finansų krizės poveikis investuotojų nuomonei apie investavimą ir artimiausi investuotojų lūkesčiai. Remiantis atlikta apklausa ir OMXV indekso kitimo dinamika nustatomos investavimo perspektyvos. Tyrimas atskleidė, kad didžiausias neigiamas finansų krizės poveikis Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinkai pasireiškė 2008 m., tačiau rinka iš lėto atsigauna ir tikėtina, kad artimoje ateityje Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinka pradės sparčiai plėstis.The purpose of this article is to evaluate financial crisis impact on the Lithuanian stock market. Nowadays financial crisis of2007–2010 is a very popular issue between society, government and financial institutions. Such an event changed everyone's daily routine. Besides, this important and specific crisis affected goals, strategies and plans of many institutions. After this crunch lots of investors started to doubt about the reliability of stock market. For this reason, the factors which make impact on the Lithuanian stock market, are determined and the characteristics of the period of 2003–2010 in the Lithuanian stock market are presented. The method of the moving averages is used in order to analyze the dynamics of the stock market and to forecast the perspectives of the market. The results of the research showed that the financial crisis made the biggest negative impact on the Lithuanian stock market during the year 2008. Despite this, the market is slowly recovering and it is possible that it will start to develop in the near futur