The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates

Computable OLG growth models and "convergence models" differ in their assessment of the extent to which demography influences economic growth. In this paper, I show that computable OLG growth models produce results similar to those of convergence models when more detailed demographic information is used. To do so, I implement a general equilibrium overlapping generations model to explain Taiwan's economic miracle during the period 1965-2005. I find that Taiwan's demographic transition accounts for 22% of per capita output growth, 16.4% of the investment rate, and 18.5% of the savings rate for the period 1965-2005. Decomposing the demographic effect into its components, I find that fertility alone explains the impact of demographic changes in per capita output growth, while both fertility and mortality explain investment and saving rates. Assuming a small open economy, I find that investment rates increase with more rapid population growth, while saving rates follows the dependence hypothesis (Coale and Hoover, 1958). Under a closed-economy, the population growth rate has a negative influence on economic growth.Taiwan, demography, economic growth

Demand for private annuities and social security: consequences to individual wealth

This paper focuses on comparing public and private individual wealth over the life-cycle, when individuals face an uncertain length of life. We also analyze how a fully funded and actuarially fair Social Security affects the desire to annuitize private wealth. Within this framework, we find that a social security system can contribute to reaching a higher national wealth, even when the economy is composed of selfish individuals. Thus, by means of some simulations we obtain the result that a payroll tax of 6 percent increases individual wealth up to 17 percent. This increment, however, is obtained under the assumption that insurance companies offer fair annuities. On the contrary, under an unfair private annuity market, individual wealth can decrease around 10 percent for the same payroll tax

Welfare gains and annuities demand

This paper extends the annuity demand theory, giving new reasons for the small annuities demand. Regarding this problem, Yaari (1965) claims, under the condition that no one can die in debt, that a selfish consumer will fully annuitized her savings, insofar as annuity asset yield dominate conventional assets yield. However, we demonstrated mathematically that, in a standard life-cycle model, when borrowings are unconstrained and financial markets are complete, a selfish consumer may prefer not to annuitize her savings. In addition, we analyze the desire to purchase annuities according to the risk aversion coefficient and wealth composition

Employment and Unemployment Transitions in Spain from 1996 to 2005

In this paper, we have studied the employment and nonemployment transitions in Spain from 1996 to 2005. To do so, we have used a multi-state multiepisode duration model and a censored continuous-time Markovian matrix. By using the censored Markovian matrix, we have been able to balance the negative effect that censore has on the estimated parameters. The results obtained suggest that women have a probability of employment six percent lower than men. In addition, we have been able to show that Spanish employees experience three different stages of employment during their first decade in the labor market.Employment and Nonemployment Transitions; Multi-state Multi-episode Duration Model; Hazard Rate; Censored Continuous-time Markovian Matrix

From transfers to capital: analyzing the Spanish demand for wealth using NTA

Inter- and intra-family transfers are a very important part of our daily economic activity. These transfers, whether familial or public, may influence our economic decisions to the same extent that financial markets do. In this paper, we seek to understand how the Spanish stock of capital will evolve if the set of intergenerational transfers observed in year 2000 are maintained in the future. With that aim in mind, we have implemented a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with realistic public and familial transfers drawn from the National Transfer Accounts project (NTA). Given that familial transfers go from parents to children, and public transfers go from children to parents, we show that the Spanish baby boom and baby bust will make the second demographic dividend temporary, and that welfare will be reduced from 2040 onwards.Spain, demographic ageing, economic demography, economic growth

The impact of social security on the stock of physical capital: new approaches

Tesis doctoral inédita. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Análisis Económico. Fecha de lectura : 1-12-0

Desempleo, búsqueda y políticas activas

Dentro de las políticas activas de empleo, los programas de Orientación para el Empleo suponen actualmente -en términos de acciones- más de la mitad de las políticas puestas en marcha por los servicios públicos de empleo. Asimismo, los recursos económicos destinados a dichas medidas han ido incrementándose año a año haciendo que en 2004 se acercara al 7% del presupuesto total destinado a políticas activas. En este contexto, el objetivo perseguido en este trabajo es analizar la eficacia de los programas de orientación laboral que se vienen aplicando en España por los Servicios de Empleo en los últimos años, destinados esencialmente a facilitar a los participantes en desempleo el acceso y ajuste a las vacantes surgidas. En concreto, se procede a estimar la probabilidad que tienen los distintos grupos de individuos de obtener un empleo utilizando para ello un grupo de control formado por individuos de características semejantes pero que no han participado en políticas activas de empleo. Los resultados obtenidos se analizan en el marco de un modelo de búsqueda bajo el que la alternativa de participación supone tanto el incurrir en un coste como la mejora de la calidad de las ofertas