Financial Sector Development and Integration in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Towards a long-term sustainable transition. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 7, April 2013

This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines the trends and prospects in financial-sector development and integration in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries and concludes with an agenda for a long-term sustainable transition where finance turns to be a positive stimulus to long-term growth

Banking Mergers and Acquisitions in the EU: Overview, Assessment and Prospects

This paper aims at providing a complete picture of banking mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in Europe during the 1990s and at offering economic evaluation and strategic analyses of the process. The main characteristics of this process in the 1990s were the emergence of " mega banks" at the national scale, a slight increase of cross-border transactions and the emergence of few large pan-European financial groups. Building on an extensive review of the US and EU literature, we examine the impact of M&As in European banking on profitability and efficiency, considering the breakdown between domestic and cross-border transactions. We first proceed with the profitability analysis of distinct completed M&As cases with different industrial strategies (based on the geographical dimension of the transaction and the initial activities of the merging banks). We find that domestic mergers contribute to cut costs for both partners, whereas, for the majority of cases studies, including domestic and cross-border mergers and acquisitions, the impact on profitability is insignificant, but a clear trend to diversify the sources of revenues was apparent. The cost and profit efficiency analysis based on 33 bank-to-bank mergers, confirmed an improvement of cost efficiency and little improvement of profit efficiency for domestic transactions; whereas, no improvement of costefficiency and a little improvement of profit efficiency for cross-border transactions. These results imply that domestic banking mergers in Europe fulfilled their objective to cut costs whereas they failed to achieve revenues synergies; cross-border mergers instead, were proved to better exploit from revenues synergies more likely due to geographical diversification. Against this background, we provide the main prospective scenarios for banking consolidation in the medium term after examining the state of concentration and competition in the domestic banking markets and the role of the regulatory changes and remaining obstacles to a full European banking integration. Finally, we raise the main strategic challenges ahead banking institutions in terms of business models - Universal, multi specialised or specialised banking, optimal size, growth strategies - M&As or partnerships - and the prospects offered by the new Basel capital Accord. A first appraisal suggests: a) a natural coexistence of different business models, each one having its specific characteristics and responding to individual needs, b) the optimal size is not synonym of a larger size and a larger size is not an absolute criterion of profitability and efficiency, c) M&As are not the only alternative to banking consolidation, and d) finally Basel II is redefining the rules of the game to European banking, but it is rather premature to make a final and exhaustive assessment in this respect

What scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean in 2030 in the wake of the Arab spring? MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 2, October 2011 (Updated 25 February 2013)

In the wake of the Arab Spring, the Southern Mediterranean region has reached a turning point in its history, presenting many opportunities and challenges for the EU. In this MEDPRO Policy Paper, Rym Ayadi and Carlo Sessa explore various possible scenarios that could play out in EU-Mediterranean relations over the next two decades but find, lamentably, that the EU has set itself on a ‘business as usual’ course, leaving the region open to further polarisation and the involvement of other external players

Scenarios Assessment and Transitions towards a Sustainable Euro-Mediterranean in 2030. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 9, July 2013

In the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings in the southern and eastern Mediterranean, the region has reached a turning point in its history, presenting as many opportunities as challenges. The European Union itself is facing challenging conditions following the financial and economic crises that have hit its periphery. This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines and assesses various possible scenarios that could play out in EU-Mediterranean relations over the next two decades and offers recommendations towards long-term sustainable socio-economic development in the region

Banking Business Models Monitor 2014: Europe. CEPS Paperbacks, 14 October 2014

CEPS and the International Observatory on Financial Services Cooperatives (IOFSC) at HEC Montreal have initiated an annual monitoring exercise on banking business models in the EU. Based on their balance sheet structures, 147 European banks that account for more than 80% of the industry assets were categorised in four business models. The Monitor emphasises the ownership structures and assesses the financial and economic performance, resilience and robustness, before, during and after the financial and economic crises across retail diversified-, retail focused-, investment-, and wholesale oriented banks. Inter alia, this edition of the Monitor finds that banks that engage more in traditional retail banking activities with a mix of funding sources fared well as compared to other bank models during the different phases of the crisis

Investigating Diversity in the Banking Sector in Europe: The Performance and Role of Savings Banks. CEPS Paperbacks. June 2009

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the foundations of modern and innovative financial systems developed over decades have suffered serious damage. This has triggered massive state interventions and has led authorities to revamp the regulatory structures and frameworks. While many voices have called for a return to more traditional approaches to banking and finance, no one has argued the merits of diversity. This book investigates the merits of a diverse banking system with a special focus on the performance and role of savings banks in selected European countries where they are still prominent (Austria, Germany and Spain) and where they have progressively disappeared (Belgium and Italy). The theoretical and empirical arguments that are developed in this book tend to support the view that it is economically and socially beneficial to have ‘dual bottom-line’ institutions, such as savings banks. For those who accept this premise, it would suggest that policy-makers should not take or support actions that could jeopardise this valuable element of the financial system in various countries in Europe and of the emerging integrated European financial system

The Tunisian Revolution: An Opportunity for Democratic Transition. MEDPRO Commentary, 24 January 2011

To help promote a peaceful transition to democracy in Tunisia, a new MEDPRO Commentary by Rym Ayadi, Silvia Colombo, Maria Cristina Paciello and Nathalie Tocci calls upon the EU to act quickly on its declaration of support for “a genuine democratic transition” and to consult with political parties both from the transition government and beyond to prepare for the running of the next elections. A positive resolution of this crisis will only be achieved if the internal and external players follow the lessons of successful democratic transitions elsewhere

Regulation of European Banks and Business Models: Towards a new paradigm? CEPS Paperbacks. June 2012

Amidst talks of establishing an EU-wide banking union, the recent changes in the regulatory framework and the rethinking of the future of European banking structure, the future of EU bank regulation is inextricably linked to banks’ business models. Using a sample of over 70 banks, which overlaps with those subjected to the EBA’s 2011 stress tests, this report emphasizes the key regulatory gaps that emerge from a comprehensive analysis of the soundness and performance of bank business models and provides policy-makers with guidance to reinforce the evolving regulatory framework in European banking