All on a Summer\u27s Day / Rehearsal (January 20, 1937)

Program for All on a Summer\u27s Day / Rehearsal (January 20, 1937)

Factors influencing the choice of shared bicycles and shared electric bikes in Beijing

AbstractChina leads the world in both public bikeshare and private electric bike (e-bike) growth. Current trajectories indicate the viability of deploying large-scale shared e-bike (e-bikeshare) systems in China. We employ a stated preference survey and multinomial logit to model the factors influencing the choice to switch from an existing transportation mode to bikeshare or e-bikeshare in Beijing. Demand is influenced by distinct sets of factors: the bikeshare choice is most sensitive to measures of effort and comfort while the e-bikeshare choice is more sensitive to user heterogeneities. Bikeshare demand is strongly negatively impacted by trip distance, temperature, precipitation, and poor air quality. User demographics however do not factor strongly on the bikeshare choice, indicating the mode will draw users from across the social spectrum. The e-bikeshare choice is much more tolerant of trip distance, high temperatures and poor air quality, though precipitation is also a highly negative factor. User demographics do play a significant role in e-bikeshare demand. Analysis of impact to the existing transportation system finds that both bikeshare and e-bikeshare will tend to draw users away from the “unsheltered modes”, walk, bike, and e-bike. Although it is unclear if shared bikes are an attractive “first-and-last-mile solution”, it is clear that e-bikeshare is attractive as a bus replacement

Social Media Content of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Groups and Pages on Facebook: Cross-sectional Analysis.

BACKGROUND Patients use Facebook as a resource for medical information. We analyzed posts on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF)-related Facebook groups and pages for the presence of guideline content, user engagement, and usefulness. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to describe and analyze posts from Facebook groups and pages that primarily focus on IPF-related content. METHODS Cross-sectional analysis was performed on a single date, identifying Facebook groups and pages resulting from separately searching "IPF" and "idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis." For inclusion, groups and pages needed to meet either search term and be in English, publicly available, and relevant to IPF. Every 10th post was assessed for general characteristics, source, focus, and user engagement metrics. Posts were analyzed for presence of IPF guideline content, useful scientific information (eg, scientific publications), useful support information (eg, information about support groups), and potentially harmful information. RESULTS Eligibility criteria were met by 12 groups and 27 pages, leading to analysis of 523 posts. Of these, 42% contained guideline content, 24% provided useful support, 20% provided useful scientific information, and 5% contained potentially harmful information. The most common post source was nonmedical users (85%). Posts most frequently focused on IPF-related news (29%). Posts containing any guideline content had fewer likes or comments and a higher likelihood of containing potentially harmful content. Posts containing useful supportive information had more likes, shares, and comments. CONCLUSIONS Facebook contains useful information about IPF, but posts with misinformation and less guideline content have higher user engagement, making them more visible. Identifying ways to help patients with IPF discriminate between useful and harmful information on Facebook and other social media platforms is an important task for health care professionals

Sensitivity to grid resolution in the ability of a chemical transport model to simulate observed oxidant chemistry under high-isoprene conditions

Formation of ozone and organic aerosol in continental atmospheres depends on whether isoprene emitted by vegetation is oxidized by the high-NOx pathway (where peroxy radicals react with NO) or by low-NOx pathways (where peroxy radicals react by alternate channels, mostly with HO2). We used mixed layer observations from the SEAC4RS aircraft campaign over the Southeast US to test the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at different grid resolutions (0.25°  ×  0.3125°, 2°  ×  2.5°, 4°  ×  5°) to simulate this chemistry under high-isoprene, variable-NOx conditions. Observations of isoprene and NOx over the Southeast US show a negative correlation, reflecting the spatial segregation of emissions; this negative correlation is captured in the model at 0.25°  ×  0.3125° resolution but not at coarser resolutions. As a result, less isoprene oxidation takes place by the high-NOx pathway in the model at 0.25°  ×  0.3125° resolution (54 %) than at coarser resolution (59 %). The cumulative probability distribution functions (CDFs) of NOx, isoprene, and ozone concentrations show little difference across model resolutions and good agreement with observations, while formaldehyde is overestimated at coarse resolution because excessive isoprene oxidation takes place by the high-NOx pathway with high formaldehyde yield. The good agreement of simulated and observed concentration variances implies that smaller-scale non-linearities (urban and power plant plumes) are not important on the regional scale. Correlations of simulated vs. observed concentrations do not improve with grid resolution because finer modes of variability are intrinsically more difficult to capture. Higher model resolution leads to decreased conversion of NOx to organic nitrates and increased conversion to nitric acid, with total reactive nitrogen oxides (NOy) changing little across model resolutions. Model concentrations in the lower free troposphere are also insensitive to grid resolution. The overall low sensitivity of modeled concentrations to grid resolution implies that coarse resolution is adequate when modeling continental boundary layer chemistry for global applications

Incidence and prognostic significance of hypoxemia in fibrotic interstitial lung disease: an international cohort study.

BACKGROUND Hypoxemia is a cardinal feature of fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD). The incidence, progression, and prognostic significance of hypoxemia in patients with fibrotic ILD is currently unknown. RESEARCH QUESTION What are the epidemiology of hypoxemia and its additive prognostic value in current risk prediction model in fibrotic ILD? METHODS We identified 848 patients with fibrotic ILD (258 with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF)) in five prospective ILD registries from Australia, Canada, and Switzerland. Cumulative incidence of exertional and resting hypoxemia from the time of diagnosis was estimated at 1-year intervals in patients with baseline 6-minute walk tests, adjusted for competing risks of death and lung transplantation. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine the prognostic significance of exertional and resting hypoxemia for 1-year mortality/transplantation when added to the ILD-GAP model. The cohort was divided into derivation and validation subsets to evaluate performance characteristics of the extended model (the "ILD-GAP-O2" model), which included oxygenation status as a predictor. RESULTS The 1-, 2-, and 5-year overall cumulative incidence was 6.1%, 17.3%, and 40.1% for exertional hypoxemia, and 2.4%, 5.6%, and 16.5% for resting hypoxemia, which were significantly higher in IPF patients compared to non-IPF patients (p<0.001 for both). Addition of exertional or resting hypoxemia to the ILD-GAP model improved 1-year mortality/transplantation prediction (p<0.001 for both). The ILD-GAP-O2 model had improved discrimination (C-index of 0.80 vs 0.75) and model fit (Akaike information criteria of 400 vs 422) in the validation cohort, with comparable calibration. INTERPRETATION IPF patients have higher cumulative incidence of exertional and resting hypoxemia than non-IPF patients. The extended ILD-GAP-O2 model provides additional risk stratification for 1-year prognosis in fibrotic ILD

Formation dynamics of subsurface hydrocarbon intrusions following the Deepwater Horizon blowout

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L09602, doi:10.1029/2011GL047174.Hydrocarbons released following the Deepwater Horizon (DH) blowout were found in deep, subsurface horizontal intrusions, yet there has been little discussion about how these intrusions formed. We have combined measured (or estimated) observations from the DH release with empirical relationships developed from previous lab experiments to identify the mechanisms responsible for intrusion formation and to characterize the DH plume. Results indicate that the intrusions originate from a stratification-dominated multiphase plume characterized by multiple subsurface intrusions containing dissolved gas and oil along with small droplets of liquid oil. Unlike earlier lab measurements, where the potential density in ambient water decreased linearly with elevation, at the DH site it varied quadratically. We have modified our method for estimating intrusion elevation under these conditions and the resulting estimates agree with observations that the majority of the hydrocarbons were found between 800 and 1200 m.Funding for this project was supported by the National Science Foundation under RAPID grants CBET‐1045831, CBET‐1046890, and OCE‐1048976, and by the U. S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program

Patient Registries in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Over the past decade, several large registries of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have been established. These registries are collecting a wealth of longitudinal data on thousands of patients with this rare disease. The data collected in these registries will be complementary to data collected in clinical trials because the patient populations studied in registries have a broader spectrum of disease severity and comorbidities and can be followed for a longer period of time. Maintaining the quality and completeness of registry databases presents administrative and resourcing challenges, but it is important to ensuring the robustness of the analyses. Data from patient registries have already helped improve understanding of the clinical characteristics of patients with IPF, the impact that the disease has on their quality of life and survival, and current practices in diagnosis and management. In the future, analyses of biospecimens linked to detailed patient profiles will provide the opportunity to identify biomarkers linked to disease progression, facilitating the development of precision medicine approaches for prognosis and therapy in patients with IPF

Prevalence and characteristics of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease in a prospective registry

Rationale Progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (PF-ILD) is characterized by progressive physiologic, symptomatic, and/or radiographic worsening. The real-world prevalence and characteristics of PF-ILD remain uncertain. Methods Patients were enrolled from the Canadian Registry for Pulmonary Fibrosis between 2015-2020. PF-ILD was defined as a relative forced vital capacity (FVC) decline ≥10%, death, lung transplantation, or any 2 of: relative FVC decline ≥5 and &lt;10%, worsening respiratory symptoms, or worsening fibrosis on computed tomography of the chest, all within 24 months of diagnosis. Time-to-event analysis compared progression between key diagnostic subgroups. Characteristics associated with progression were determined by multivariable regression. Results Of 2,746 patients with fibrotic ILD (mean age 65±12 years, 51% female), 1,376 (50%) met PFILD criteria in the first 24 months of follow-up. PF-ILD occurred in 427 (59%) patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), 125 (58%) with fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP), 281 (51%) with unclassifiable ILD (U-ILD), and 402 (45%) with connective tissue diseaseassociated ILD (CTD-ILD). Compared to IPF, time to progression was similar in patients with HP (hazard ratio [HR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.79-1.17), but was delayed in patients with U-ILD (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.71-0.96) and CTD-ILD (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.74). Background treatment varied across diagnostic subtypes with 66% of IPF patients receiving antifibrotic therapy, while immunomodulatory therapy was utilized in 49%, 61%, and 37% of patients with CHP, CTD-ILD, and U-ILD respectively. Increasing age, male sex, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and lower baseline pulmonary function were independently associated with progression. Interpretation Progression is common in patients with fibrotic ILD, and is similarly prevalent in HP and IPF. Routinely collected variables help identify patients at risk for progression and may guide therapeutic strategie

Organic nitrate chemistry and its implications for nitrogen budgets in an isoprene- and monoterpene-rich atmosphere: constraints from aircraft (SEAC4RS) and ground-based (SOAS) observations in the Southeast US

Formation of organic nitrates (RONO2) during oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs: isoprene, monoterpenes) is a significant loss pathway for atmospheric nitrogen oxide radicals (NOx), but the chemistry of RONO2 formation and degradation remains uncertain. Here we implement a new BVOC oxidation mechanism (including updated isoprene chemistry, new monoterpene chemistry, and particle uptake of RONO2) in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with  ∼  25  x  25 km2 resolution over North America. We evaluate the model using aircraft (SEAC4RS) and ground-based (SOAS) observations of NOx, BVOCs, and RONO2 from the Southeast US in summer 2013. The updated simulation successfully reproduces the concentrations of individual gas- and particle-phase RONO2 species measured during the campaigns. Gas-phase isoprene nitrates account for 25-50 % of observed RONO2 in surface air, and we find that another 10 % is contributed by gas-phase monoterpene nitrates. Observations in the free troposphere show an important contribution from long-lived nitrates derived from anthropogenic VOCs. During both campaigns, at least 10 % of observed boundary layer RONO2 were in the particle phase. We find that aerosol uptake followed by hydrolysis to HNO3 accounts for 60 % of simulated gas-phase RONO2 loss in the boundary layer. Other losses are 20 % by photolysis to recycle NOx and 15 % by dry deposition. RONO2 production accounts for 20 % of the net regional NOx sink in the Southeast US in summer, limited by the spatial segregation between BVOC and NOx emissions. This segregation implies that RONO2 production will remain a minor sink for NOx in the Southeast US in the future even as NOx emissions continue to decline