Using stock returns to identify government spending shocks

This paper explores a new approach to identifying government spending shocks which avoids many of the shortcomings of existing approaches. The new approach is to identify government spending shocks with statistical innovations to the accumulated excess returns of large US military contractors. This strategy is used to estimate the dynamic responses of output, hours, consumption and real wages to a government spending shock. We find that positive government spending shocks are associated with increases in output, hours, and consumption. Real wages initially decline after a government spending shock and then rise after a year. We estimate the government spending multiplier associated with increases in military spending to be about 0.6 over a horizon of 5 years.Fiscal policy ; Government spending policy ; Stocks

Debating Assessment in Music Education

Music education organizations achieved a huge success in Texas several years ago when legislation declared music as a part of the core curriculum. Similarly, more recent national education legislation like No Child Left Behind has recognized music as a core curricular subject. Since that time, little has been done to assess music students to ensure a set of basic skills and knowledge is being achieved. While national and state music standards exist, these standards, in many cases, are not mandatory and merely serve as a guide or recommendations for music educators to follow. Other core subjects endure severe oversight and rigorous testing at the state and local levels to measure whether or not students are attaining minimum standards. Some music educators are pushing for national testing of music students to demonstrate that music has an academically measurable component. Yet other music educators are fearful that assessment of music education will have the same negative effects that other core subject high-stakes testing has had on schools. This article serves to discuss the current debate on national music assessment and to argue that music education’s place in the core curriculum demands an increase in oversight through standardized music assessment of students in music education classes

PrEP Inequities Among Black and Latino MSM in the United States: Identifying Barriers and Opportunities Using a Social Ecological Model (SEM) Framework

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) remains a salient public health priority in the United States. While Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) has existed for HIV prevention efforts since 2012, its effectiveness in epidemic control at the population level relies on the ability of vulnerable populations at increased risk of HIV to access this biomedical intervention. In the United States, most of the new HIV infections in 2021 were among gay and bisexual men, the majority of whom were Black or Hispanic/Latino. This disparity for Black and Latino men who have sex with men (BLMSM) is rooted in deeply entrenched social determinants of health. According to CDC preliminary data published in October 2023, estimates from 2022 suggest 94% of White people who could benefit from PrEP have been prescribed it, but only 13% of Black and 24% of Hispanic/Latino people who could benefit have been prescribed PrEP. To capture the social determinants in PrEP inequities, an environmental scan of published literature pertaining to PrEP access for BLMSM in the U.S. was conducted. The Social Ecological Model (SEM) was utilized to evaluate the root causes of PrEP inequities on four levels: microsystem (individual-level), mesosystem (interpersonal-level), exosystem (community-level), and macrosystem (structural-level). The results from this scan demonstrate the following windows of opportunity across the four ecological levels to advance PrEP access for BLMSM in the U.S.: 1) Targeted and tailored educational materials to improve individuals’ perceptions about PrEP 2) PrEP communications delivered by the BLMSM community to eliminate stigma, 3) Provider-targeted LGBTQIA+ affirmative training that is linguistically appropriate with a focus on racial inequities to advance cultural competency and reduce racist biases in medical settings, and 4) Nationwide programs and policies aimed to reduce geographical disparities, alleviate healthcare costs, and address factors associated with immigrant status for foreign-born LMSM

An-Algos Chair

An-Algos chair is an attempt to alleviate the pain I experience when sitting for an extended period of time due to a past back surgery

Partial breakdown of quantum thermalization in a Hubbard-like model

We study the possible breakdown of quantum thermalization in a model of itinerant electrons on a one-dimensional chain without disorder, with both spin and charge degrees of freedom. The eigenstates of this model exhibit peculiar properties in the entanglement entropy, the apparent scaling of which is modified from a "volume law" to an "area law" after performing a partial, site-wise measurement on the system. These properties and others suggest that this model realizes a new, non-thermal phase of matter, known as a quantum disentangled liquid (QDL). The putative existence of this phase has striking implications for the foundations of quantum statistical mechanics.Comment: As accepted to PR

Poetry and the Multiple Drafts Model: The Functional Similarity of Cole Swensen\u27s Verse and Human Consciousness

This project compares the operational methods of three of Cole Swensen\u27s books of poetry (Such Rich Hour, Try, and Goest) with ways in which the human mind and consciousness function. I use Daniel Dennett\u27s Multiple Drafts Model of consciousness, as described in Consciousness Explained, alongside concepts presented in several other philosophical works (from both analytic and continental traditions), to demonstrate that significant similarities exist between the operations of poetry and consciousness in general, and that these operational similarities are especially noticeable in Swensen\u27s work. This thesis examines several operational modes that are present within the human mind (intentionality, phenomenological perception, a materialist process of formation, etc.), as they are contingent upon the Multiple Drafts Model, and constructs a theory of how these same concepts and principles function within Swensen\u27s poetic texts

Nest characteristics, breeding dispersal, and nest defence behaviour of Northern Flickers in relation to nest predation

I studied nest characteristics, breeding dispersal, and nest defence behaviour of Northern Flickers (Colaptes auratus, hereafter flickers) in central interior British Columbia with respect to nest predation. My research focused on three questions: (1) Are there nest characteristics associated with the risk of nest predation and nest loss to European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris)? (2) Does nest predation influence breeding dispersal? (3) Do parental attributes influence nest defence behaviour? An examination of flicker nest-site characteristics at five spatial scales revealed that nests were safer from mammalian predators (N=81) when they were higher, concealed by vegetation, farther from continuous coniferous forest blocks, and contained fewer conifers within the nesting clump. Proximity to conifers increased predation risk, but nests safe from competitors (N=18) were closer to coniferous forest blocks and contained a higher percentage of conifers in the nesting clump. Flickers face a trade-off between being safe from predators and safe from competitors. Nesting success did not influence between-year breeding dispersal by 159 male or 76 female flickers. Because nests and forest clumps were not predictably safe from predators, benefits of dispersing likely outweigh costs. Other factors such as mate-switching, nest ectoparasites, and a fluctuating food source may play larger roles in dispersal than nest predation. Within years, 73% of pairs switched nest sites after their first attempt failed due to predation (N=37); however, there was no reproductive advantage for these pairs compared to pairs that remained at their original nest. Stressful encounters with predators involving nest defence may trigger dispersal, although it seems to offer no greater nest success. Of 24 flicker pairs presented with a control model before egg-laying, 3 pairs abandoned their nest, whereas 4 out of 24 pairs presented with a squirrel model abandoned their nest. This suggests that a one-time encounter with a nest predator is not a sufficient deterrent against continued nesting. Rather, costs of finding and excavating or renovating a new cavity may cause individuals to tolerate some risk in nesting at a location with an active predator. In experimental trials (N=94), intensity of nest defence behaviour against a model predator was not related to the sex, age, body size, and body condition of the defending adult(s). The sexes may have behaved similarly because they are similar in size and have similar survival patterns. Costs and benefits of nest defence for flickers of different ages may also be equal because flickers are relatively short-lived and their survival rate is not linked with age. Brood size of the defending adult was also unrelated to the intensity of nest defence. If flickers have adjusted their clutch size in relation to the number of young for which they can optimally provide care, then no effects of brood size on nest defence behaviour should be recorded, as was the case here

Probabilities within optimal strategies for tournament games

AbstractLet T be a tournament. The tournament game on T is: Two players independently pick a node. If both pick the same node, the game is tied. Otherwise, the player whose node is at the tail of the arc connecting the two nodes wins. Fisher and Ryan showed that for any tournament T, the tournament game on T has a unique optimal strategy. If one node beats all others, the optimal strategy always picks that node. Otherwise, we show the probability that a node is picked in the optimal strategy is at most 13. We also find bounds on the minimum nonzero probability of a node in the optimal strategy

Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks

This article explores a new approach to identifying government spending shocks which avoids many of the shortcomings of existing approaches. The new approach is to identify government spending shocks with statistical innovations to the accumulated excess returns of large US military contractors. This strategy is used to estimate the dynamic responses of output, hours, consumption and real wages to a government spending shock. We find that positive government spending shocks are associated with increases in output, hours and consumption. Real wages initially decline after a government spending shock and then rise after a year. We estimate the government spending multiplier associated with increases in military spending to be about 1.5 over a horizon of 5 years