Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001-2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares >X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares >X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488).Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

The Thermal Properties of Solar Flares Over Three Solar Cycles Using GOES X-ray Observations

Solar flare X-ray emission results from rapidly increasing temperatures and emission measures in flaring active region loops. To date, observations from the X-Ray Sensor (XRS) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) have been used to derive these properties, but have been limited by a number of factors, including the lack of a consistent background subtraction method capable of being automatically applied to large numbers of flares. In this paper, we describe an automated temperature and emission measure-based background subtraction method (TEBBS), which builds on the methods of Bornmann (1990). Our algorithm ensures that the derived temperature is always greater than the instrumental limit and the pre-flare background temperature, and that the temperature and emission measure are increasing during the flare rise phase. Additionally, TEBBS utilizes the improved estimates of GOES temperatures and emission measures from White et al. (2005). TEBBS was successfully applied to over 50,000 solar flares occurring over nearly three solar cycles (1980-2007), and used to create an extensive catalog of the solar flare thermal properties. We confirm that the peak emission measure and total radiative losses scale with background subtracted GOES X-ray flux as power-laws, while the peak temperature scales logarithmically. As expected, the peak emission measure shows an increasing trend with peak temperature, although the total radiative losses do not. While these results are comparable to previous studies, we find that flares of a given GOES class have lower peak temperatures and higher peak emission measures than previously reported. The resulting TEBBS database of thermal flare plasma properties is publicly available on Solar Monitor (www.solarmonitor.org/TEBBS/) and will be available on Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (www.helio-vo.eu)

Conventional and regulatory CD4+ T cells that share identical TCRs are derived from common clones

Results from studies comparing the diversity and specificity of the TCR repertoires expressed by conventional (Tconv) and regulatory (Treg) CD4+ T cell have varied depending on the experimental system employed. We developed a new model in which T cells express a single fixed TCRα chain, randomly rearranged endogenous TCRβ chains, and a Foxp3-GFP reporter. We purified CD4+Foxp3- and CD4+Foxp3+ cells, then performed biased controlled multiplex PCR and high throughput sequencing of endogenous TCRβ chains. We identified >7,000 different TCRβ sequences in the periphery of 5 individual mice. On average, ~12% of TCR sequences were expressed by both conventional and regulatory populations within individual mice. The CD4+ T cells that expressed shared TCR sequences were present at higher frequencies compared to T cells expressing non-shared TCRs. Furthermore, nearly all (>90%) of the TCR sequences that were shared within mice were identical at the DNA sequence level, indicating that conventional and regulatory T cells that express shared TCRs are derived from common clones. Analysis of TCR repertoire overlap in the thymus reveals that a large proportion of Tconv and Treg sharing observed in the periphery is due to clonal expansion in the thymus. Together these data show that there are a limited number of TCR sequences shared between Tconv and Tregs. Also, Tconv and Tregs sharing identical TCRs are found at relatively high frequencies and are derived from common progenitors, of which a large portion are generated in the thymus

Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001 – 2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares ≥X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares ≥X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488)

A common and unstable copy number variant is associated with differences in Glo1 expression and anxiety-like behavior

Glyoxalase 1 (Glo1) has been implicated in anxiety-like behavior in mice and in multiple psychiatric diseases in humans. We used mouse Affymetrix exon arrays to detect copy number variants (CNV) among inbred mouse strains and thereby identified a approximately 475 kb tandem duplication on chromosome 17 that includes Glo1 (30,174,390-30,651,226 Mb; mouse genome build 36). We developed a PCR-based strategy and used it to detect this duplication in 23 of 71 inbred strains tested, and in various outbred and wild-caught mice. Presence of the duplication is associated with a cis-acting expression QTL for Glo1 (LOD>30) in BXD recombinant inbred strains. However, evidence for an eQTL for Glo1 was not obtained when we analyzed single SNPs or 3-SNP haplotypes in a panel of 27 inbred strains. We conclude that association analysis in the inbred strain panel failed to detect an eQTL because the duplication was present on multiple highly divergent haplotypes. Furthermore, we suggest that non-allelic homologous recombination has led to multiple reversions to the non-duplicated state among inbred strains. We show associations between multiple duplication-containing haplotypes, Glo1 expression and anxiety-like behavior in both inbred strain panels and outbred CD-1 mice. Our findings provide a molecular basis for differential expression of Glo1 and further implicate Glo1 in anxiety-like behavior. More broadly, these results identify problems with commonly employed tests for association in inbred strains when CNVs are present. Finally, these data provide an example of biologically significant phenotypic variability in model organisms that can be attributed to CNVs.These studies were funded by MH070933, MH79103 and MH020065

Monodisperse macromolecules – A stepping stone to understanding industrial polymers

AbstractPolymers synthesized via anionic polymerization have proved important to our fundamental understanding of the processing, that is rheology and crystallisation, of bulk commodity polymers. The role of monodisperse hydrogenated polybutadienes as models for linear and branched polyethylene is examined. Systematic studies of the effects of long-chain branching, using well-defined “comb” materials have improved our understanding of how the number and length of branches affect the rheological properties and how these features impact on their crystallization behaviour. A combination of techniques including rheology, Small Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS), and birefringence measurements have provided insight into role of linear long chains in the formation of oriented morphologies during the crystallization of hydrogenated polybutadiene blends of controlled polydispersity leading to the development of a quantitative model

Bridging photochemistry and photomechanics with NMR crystallography: the molecular basis for the macroscopic expansion of an anthracene ester nanorod

Crystals composed of photoreactive molecules represent a new class of photomechanical materials with the potential to generate large forces on fast timescales. An example is the photodimerization of 9-tert-butyl-anthracene ester (9TBAE) in molecular crystal nanorods that leads to an average elongation of 8%. Previous work showed that this expansion results from the formation of a metastable crystalline product. In this article, it is shown how a novel combination of ensemble oriented-crystal solid-state NMR, X-ray diffraction, and first principles computational modeling can be used to establish the absolute unit cell orientations relative to the shape change, revealing the atomic-resolution mechanism for the photomechanical response and enabling the construction of a model that predicts an elongation of 7.4%, in good agreement with the experimental value. According to this model, the nanorod expansion does not result from an overall change in the volume of the unit cell, but rather from an anisotropic rearrangement of the molecular contents. The ability to understand quantitatively how molecular-level photochemistry generates mechanical displacements allows us to predict that the expansion could be tuned from +9% to −9.5% by controlling the initial orientation of the unit cell with respect to the nanorod axis. This application of NMR-assisted crystallography provides a new tool capable of tying the atomic-level structural rearrangement of the reacting molecular species to the mechanical response of a nanostructured sample

External fishing effort regulates positive effects of no-take marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been established across the globe to mitigate the effects of multiple stressors on marine communities. In many locations, MPAs have generated positive effects on fish communities, but the impacts of fishing pressure—the primary stressor MPAs seek to manage—have not been well investigated. We examined changes in fish biomass inside and outside of no-take MPAs over 14 years in central California, USA. Using data from the community-based science program, the California Collaborative Fisheries Research Program, we tested which environmental and human-induced stressors most influence the strength of MPA responses. While temperature and productivity were included in the best fit model, we found that fine-scale fishing effort data, following reserve implementation, best explained the spatial variation in fish community responses to MPAs. Specifically, differences in fish biomass between MPAs and sites open to fishing were larger for reserves near heavily fished locations and these areas exhibited the highest rate of change in fish biomass, indicating strong positive effects of the MPA on the most heavily exploited fish communities. As MPAs continue to be used as a prominent conservation strategy in coastal systems, managers should consider both the suite of human-induced (socio-ecological interactions) and environmental conditions that may alter MPA success as well as establish long-term monitoring programs to fully assess the functionality of marine reserves into the future

Evaluating Arctic clouds modelled with the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System

By synthesising remote-sensing measurements made in the central Arctic into a model-gridded Cloudnet cloud product, we evaluate how well the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) capture Arctic clouds and their associated interactions with the surface energy balance and the thermodynamic structure of the lower troposphere. This evaluation was conducted using a 4-week observation period from the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition, where the transition from sea ice melting to freezing conditions was measured. Three different cloud schemes were tested within a nested limited-area model (LAM) configuration of the UM – two regionally operational single-moment schemes (UM_RA2M and UM_RA2T) and one novel double-moment scheme (UM_CASIM-100) – while one global simulation was conducted with the IFS, utilising its default cloud scheme (ECMWF_IFS). Consistent weaknesses were identified across both models, with both the UM and IFS overestimating cloud occurrence below 3 km. This overestimation was also consistent across the three cloud configurations used within the UM framework, with >90 % mean cloud occurrence simulated between 0.15 and 1 km in all the model simulations. However, the cloud microphysical structure, on average, was modelled reasonably well in each simulation, with the cloud liquid water content (LWC) and ice water content (IWC) comparing well with observations over much of the vertical profile. The key microphysical discrepancy between the models and observations was in the LWC between 1 and 3 km, where most simulations (all except UM_RA2T) overestimated the observed LWC. Despite this reasonable performance in cloud physical structure, both models failed to adequately capture cloud-free episodes: this consistency in cloud cover likely contributes to the ever-present near-surface temperature bias in every simulation. Both models also consistently exhibited temperature and moisture biases below 3 km, with particularly strong cold biases coinciding with the overabundant modelled cloud layers. These biases are likely due to too much cloud-top radiative cooling from these persistent modelled cloud layers and were consistent across the three UM configurations tested, despite differences in their parameterisations of cloud on a sub-grid scale. Alarmingly, our findings suggest that these biases in the regional model were inherited from the global model, driving a cause–effect relationship between the excessive low-altitude cloudiness and the coincident cold bias. Using representative cloud condensation nuclei concentrations in our double-moment UM configuration while improving cloud microphysical structure does little to alleviate these biases; therefore, no matter how comprehensive we make the cloud physics in the nested LAM configuration used here, its cloud and thermodynamic structure will continue to be overwhelmingly biased by the meteorological conditions of its driving model