Why choose wisely if you have already paid? Sunk costs elicit stochastic dominance violations

Sunk costs have been known to elicit violations of expected utility theory, in particular, the independence or cancellation axiom. Separately, violations of the stochastic dominance principle have been demonstrated in various settings despite the fact that descriptive models of choice favored in economics deem such violations irrational. However, it is currently unknown whether sunk costs also yield stochastic dominance violations. In two studies using a tri-colored roulette wheel choice task with non-equiprobable events yet equal payoffs, we observed that those who had sunk costs selected a stochastically dominated option significantly more than did those who had no costs. Moreover, a second study revealed that people chose a stochastically dominated option significantly more when the expected value was low compared to high. A model comparison of psychological explanations demonstrated that theories that incorporate a reference shift of the status quo could predict these sunk cost-based violations of stochastic dominance whereas other models could not

Elevated sodium concentrations in Australian drinking water supplies

Salt in the drinking water of many Australian water supplies could be adversely contributing to the ill-health of many people. Health care professionals often recommend low-sodium diets for patients with kidney disease, heart disease and cardiovascular disease. It is recommended that people on a low-sodium diet drink water with less than 20 mg/L of sodium. The sodium concentration of water supplies in many regional and remote regions of Australia often had water with elevated sodium (more than 20 mg/L) in their water supplies. In NSW 17 of the 21 regional water supplies tested had higher than 20 mg/L sodium. The issue of elevated sodium in many Australian drinking water supplies needs to be recognised more prominently. Sodium needs to be sampled more frequently and the results shared openly with consumers and health professionals. All water authorities that provide drinking water with sodium concentrations higher than 20 mg/L should be advising their customers of this fact as a high priority. People on low-sodium diets that have >20 mg/L sodium in their water supply should consider options to obtain low-sodium water

Increased Responsiveness to Novelty is Associated with Successful Cognitive Aging

The animal literature suggests that exposure to more complex, novel environments promotes neurogenesis and cognitive performance in older animals. Studies in humans indicate that participation in intellectually stimulating activities may serve as a buffer against mental decline and help to sustain cognitive abilities. Here, we show that across old adults, increased responsiveness to novel events (as measured by viewing duration and the size of the P3 event-related potential) is strongly linked to better performance on neuropsychological tests, especially those involving attention/executive functions. Cognitively high performing old adults generate a larger P3 response to visual stimuli than cognitively average performing adults. These results suggest that cognitively high performing adults successfully manage the task by appropriating more resources and that the increased size of their P3 component represents a beneficial compensatory mechanism rather than less efficient processing

Forecasting the inundation of postfire debris flows

In the semi-arid regions of the western United States, postfire debris flows are typically runoff generated. The U.S. Geological Survey has been studying the mechanisms of postfire debris-flow initiation for multiple decades to generate operational models for forecasting the timing, location, and magnitude of postfire debris flows. Here we discuss challenges and progress for extending operational capabilities to include modeling postfire debris-flow inundation extent. Analysis of volume and impacted area scaling relationships indicated that postfire debris flows do not conform to assumptions of geometric self-similarity. We documented sensitivity of impacted areas to rainfall intensity using a candidate methodology for generating inundation hazard assessments. Our results emphasize the importance of direct measurements of debris-flow volume, inundated area, and high temporal resolution rainfall intensity

Exploring the feasibility of Conjoint Analysis as a tool for prioritizing innovations for implementation

Background: In an era of scarce and competing priorities for implementation, choosing what to implement is a key decision point for many behavioural change projects. The values and attitudes of the professionals and managers involved inevitably impact the priority attached to decision options. Reliably capturing such values is challenging. Methods: This paper presents an approach for capturing and incorporating professional values into the prioritization of healthcare innovations being considered for adoption. Conjoint Analysis (CA) was used in a single UK Primary Care Trust to measure the priorities of healthcare professionals working with women with postnatal depression. Rating-based CA data was gathered using a questionnaire and then mapped onto 12 interventions being considered as a means of improving the management of postnatal depression. Results: The ‘impact on patient care’ and the ‘quality of supporting evidence’ associated with the potential innovations were the most influential in shaping priorities. Professionals were least influenced by whether an innovation was an existing national or local priority, or whether current practice in the Trust was meeting minimum standards. Ranking the 12 innovations by the preferences of potential adopters revealed ‘guided self help’ was the top priority for implementation and ‘screening questions for post natal depression’ the least. When other factors were considered (such as the presence of routine data or planned implementation activity elsewhere in the Trust), the project team chose to combine the eight related treatments and implement these as a single innovation referred to as ‘psychological therapies’. Conclusions: Using Conjoint Analysis to prioritise potential innovation implementation options is a feasible means of capturing the utility of stakeholders and thus increasing the chances of an innovation being adopted. There are some practical barriers to overcome such as increasing response rates to conjoint surveys before routine and unevaluated use of this technique should be considered

Therapeutic ultrasound as a potential male contraceptive: power, frequency and temperature required to deplete rat testes of meiotic cells and epididymides of sperm determined using a commercially available system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies published in the 1970s by Mostafa S. Fahim and colleagues showed that a short treatment with ultrasound caused the depletion of germ cells and infertility. The goal of the current study was to determine if a commercially available therapeutic ultrasound generator and transducer could be used as the basis for a male contraceptive.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sprague-Dawley rats were anesthetized and their testes were treated with 1 MHz or 3 MHz ultrasound while varying power, duration and temperature of treatment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that 3 MHz ultrasound delivered with 2.2 Watt per square cm power for fifteen minutes was necessary to deplete spermatocytes and spermatids from the testis and that this treatment significantly reduced epididymal sperm reserves. 3 MHz ultrasound treatment reduced total epididymal sperm count 10-fold lower than the wet-heat control and decreased motile sperm counts 1,000-fold lower than wet-heat alone. The current treatment regimen provided nominally more energy to the treatment chamber than Fahim's originally reported conditions of 1 MHz ultrasound delivered at 1 Watt per square cm for ten minutes. However, the true spatial average intensity, effective radiating area and power output of the transducers used by Fahim were not reported, making a direct comparison impossible. We found that germ cell depletion was most uniform and effective when we rotated the therapeutic transducer to mitigate non-uniformity of the beam field. The lowest sperm count was achieved when the coupling medium (3% saline) was held at 37 degrees C and two consecutive 15-minute treatments of 3 MHz ultrasound at 2.2 Watt per square cm were separated by 2 days.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The non-invasive nature of ultrasound and its efficacy in reducing sperm count make therapeutic ultrasound a promising candidate for a male contraceptive. However, further studies must be conducted to confirm its efficacy in providing a contraceptive effect, to test the result of repeated use, to verify that the contraceptive effect is reversible and to demonstrate that there are no detrimental, long-term effects from using ultrasound as a method of male contraception.</p

Update to the AWED (Applying Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue) trial study protocol: a cluster randomised controlled trial in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: The AWED (Applying Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue) trial is a parallel, two-arm, non-blinded cluster randomised controlled trial that is under way in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, with the aim of measuring the efficacy of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti deployments in reducing dengue incidence in an endemic setting. Enrolment began in January 2018 and is ongoing. The original study protocol was published in April 2018. Here, we describe amendments that have been made to the study protocol since commencement of the trial. METHODS: The key protocol amendments are (1) a revised study duration with planned end of participant enrolment in August 2020, (2) the addition of new secondary objectives (i) to estimate serotype-specific efficacy of the Wolbachia intervention and (ii) to compare Ae. aegypti abundance in intervention versus untreated clusters, (3) an additional exposure classification for the per-protocol analysis where the Wolbachia exposure index is calculated using only the cluster-level Wolbachia prevalence in the participant's cluster of residence, (4) power re-estimation using a multinomial sampling method that better accounts for randomness in sampling, and (5) the addition of two trial stopping rules to address the potential for persistently low rates of virologically confirmed dengue case enrolment and Wolbachia contamination into untreated clusters. Additional minor changes to the protocol are also described. DISCUSSION: The findings from this study will provide the first experimental evidence for the efficacy of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence. Enrolment in the trial will conclude this year (2020) and results will be reported shortly thereafter. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT03055585. Registered on 14 February 2017. Last updated 22 March 2020