Developing an online predictor to predict product sulfur concentration for HDS unit

Hydrodesulfurization (HDS) is an important process in refining industries. Advanced control system (e.g. model predictive controller) requires on-line measurement of the product sulfur at the reactor outlet. However, most HDS processes do not have a sulfur analyzer at the reactor outlet. In order to predict product sulfur concentration usually a data based sulfur predictor is developed. Performance of data based predictor is usually poor since some of the input parameters (e.g. feed sulfur concentration) are unknown. The objective of this thesis is to overcome these limitations of data based predictors and develop an online product sulfur predictor for HDS unit. In this thesis, a hybrid model is proposed, developed and validated (using industrial data), which could predict product sulfur concentration for online HDS system. The proposed hybrid structure is a combination of a reaction kinetics based HDS reactor model and an empirical model based on support vector regression (SVR). The mechanistic model runs in off-line mode to estimate the feed sulfur concentration while the data based model uses the estimated feed sulfur concentration and other process variables to predict the product sulfur concentration. The predicted sulfur concentration can be compared with the lab measurements or sulfur analyzer located further downstream of the process at the tankage. In case there is a large discrepancy, the predictor goes to a calibration mode and uses the mechanistic model to re-estimate the feed sulfur concentration. The detailed logic for the online prediction is also developed. Finally a Matlab based Graphical User Interface (GUI) has been developed for the hybrid sulfur predictor for easy implementation to any HDS process

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Terminal settling velocity of a single sphere in drilling fluid

The accurate prediction of terminal settling velocity of solid spheres in non-Newtonian liquids is important for various fluid-particle systems such as slurry pipelines, separation processes, hole-cleaning in drilling operations, and mineral processing. The standard practice for the prediction involves an implicit procedure that requires repeated iterations using Newtonian correlations. Wilson et al. developed an explicit method that allows direct (noniterative) prediction of the velocity in non-Newtonian liquids. Although very useful, the original Wilson model has an empirical constraint that limits its application. In this study, experiments are performed to measure the terminal settling velocity of precision spheres in Newtonian liquid (water) and non-Newtonian drilling fluids (Flowzan solutions). The Herschel–Bulkley three parameter model satisfactorily modeled the non-Newtonian rheology. Experimental data and similar measurements available in the literature are presented in this paper. The data exhibited the standard relationship between the drag coefficient and the Reynolds number. The original Wilson model was tested for these data points and was modified in this study to address its limitations. Consequently, it was observed that the modified version yielded more accurate results than the original model. Its prediction was especially better when the value of corresponding Reynolds number was more than 10.The authors would also like to acknowledge the start-up fund provided by Texas A&M University - Qatar. The authors are grateful to the Qatar Foundation, Texas A&M University-Qatar and Qatar University.Scopu