A web analytics approach to map the influence and reach of CCAFS: Latin America Focus

Based on a Digital Methods framework developed to map the policy influence of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) globally (Carneiro et al 2020), this study adapted the approach to focus on the Latin America regional program (LAM). The influence of CCAFS in LAM was explored through data analytics, with the application of machine learning techniques primarily focused on text mining, network analysis and hyperlink analysis of web-based sources. The foundation of this research is to assess the process of knowledge dissemination and influence of CCAFS activity to stakeholders and local beneficiaries, by considering online networks and narratives as evidence of “offline” program influence. It found that CCAFS plays a key role in raising awareness, building capacity, and supporting policy development around Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)

Assessing the relationship between climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Quantitative analysis on the impact of climate variability on conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC countries

In this study, we investigate the climate-food security-conflict nexus in Ethiopia and the CADC (Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras). Both Ethiopia and the CADC are hotspots of high climate variabilities, high political insecurity, and conflicts and widespread food and nutrition insecurities across their populations. Therefore, the main research questions that this study aims to answer for the CADC countries: • Is climate exacerbating existing threats that could increase the risk of conflict in the CADC countries and in Ethiopia? • Are areas of high climate variability correlated to high socio-political insecurity in the CADC countries and in Ethiopia? • How can WFP programming become more climate security sensitive? Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Climate exacerbates existing household level risks and insecurities that can increase the likelihood and intensity of conflict. In other words, we find evidence that climate is a threat multiplier in Ethiopia and El Salvador . (2) In addition to climate induced insecurities, there exist other important household level predictors of conflict, such as age, education, and gender of the head of the household, ethnicity, access to electricity and location in Ethiopia and El Salvador. (3) The climate security nexus – the way climate, socio-economic and political risks and insecurities are linked to each other – differs across countries (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Ethiopia) and conflict clusters. (4) There exist “climate insecurity hotspots” at sub-national level where high level of climate variability, conflict intensity and diversity co-occur with other existing socio-economic insecurities

Is climate a risk multiplier in the Central American Dry Corridor? A CGIAR study

In this study, we investigate the climate-food security-conflict nexus in the Central American dry corridor as part of the WFP - CGIAR project "Assessing the relationship between climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Quantitative analysis on the impact of climate variability on conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC countries". Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Climate exacerbates foodinsecurity, poverty and inequalitythat can lead to more frequent conflicts. (2) The impact of climate on foodinsecurity can cascade inmultiple, wider security risks (3) There exist “climate insecurityhotspots” at sub-national levelwhere high level of climatevariability, conflict intensity anddiversity co-occur with otherexisting socio-economicinsecurities

Is climate a “risk multiplier” in Ethiopia?

Ethiopia experiences high climate variability, conflict, and political uncertainty while widespread food and nutrition insecurities are common throughout its population. CGIAR and WFP conducted a study to better understand how Ethiopia’s climate, socio-economic, and political risks and insecurities are linked to each other. This information can orient strategies and planning of long-term peacebuilding efforts and mitigate conflict risk in a climate crisis and inform strategies to strengthen the role of food for peace

Is climate a risk multiplier in the Central American Dry Corridor? A CGIAR study

In this study, we investigate the climate-food security-conflict nexus in the Central American dry corridor as part of the WFP - CGIAR project "Assessing the relationship between climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Quantitative analysis on the impact of climate variability on conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC countries". Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Climate exacerbates foodinsecurity, poverty and inequalitythat can lead to more frequent conflicts. (2) The impact of climate on foodinsecurity can cascade inmultiple, wider security risks (3) There exist “climate insecurityhotspots” at sub-national levelwhere high level of climatevariability, conflict intensity anddiversity co-occur with otherexisting socio-economicinsecurities

Climate security in the Central American Dry Corridor

The evidence on conflicts around the world since the turn of the century points to a simple conclusion: conflicts, grievances and insecurities are increasingly being affected by changing climates, environmental degradation, food insecurity, and the struggle to control a finite pool of natural resources. This paper aims to understand the linkages between climate, conflict, agriculture, and migration in the Central American Dry Corridor and offer a road map for the region while emphasizing the role of research and development. We do this by first clarifying what climate security means and how it links to risk and resilience (introduction). We then present causal impact pathways to describe how climate exacerbates drivers of conflict and insecurity (Section 1). We continue with a social media and policy coherence analysis to explain how the linkages between climate and conflict are perceived by the public (Section 2) and represented in public policies (Section 3). We then describe the linkages between climate and security for Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala (Section 4). This is followed by an overview of indicators summarizing the state of climate security in Central America and the Dry Corridor and a discussion of the limitations of such indicators (Section 5). We then present existing research for development efforts and discuss their potential to contribute to climate security by mitigating its drivers (Section 6). We offer entry points for improving climate security in the Central American Dry Corridor (Section 7) and finally, Section 8 proposes entry points for incorporating climate security dimensions into rural development and regional and national security policy and research agendas