Cardiovascular risk prediction in men and women aged under 50 years using routine care data

BackgroundPrediction models for risk of cardiovascular events generally do not include young adults, and cardiovascular risk factors differ between women and men. Therefore, this study aimed to develop prediction models for first‐ever cardiovascular event risk in men and women aged 30 to 49 years.Methods and ResultsWe included patients aged 30 to 49 years without cardiovascular disease from a Dutch routine care database. Outcome was defined as first‐ever cardiovascular event. Our reference models were sex‐specific Cox proportional hazards models based on traditional cardiovascular predictors, which we compared with models using 2 predictor subsets with the 20 or 50 most important predictors based on the Cox elastic net model regularization coefficients. We assessed the C‐index and calibration curve slopes at 10 years of follow‐up. We stratified our analyses based on 30‐ to 39‐year and 40‐ to 49‐year age groups at baseline. We included 542 141 patients (mean age 39.7, 51% women). During follow‐up, 10 767 cardiovascular events occurred. Discrimination of reference models including traditional cardiovascular predictors was moderate (women: C‐index, 0.648 [95% CI, 0.645–0.652]; men: C‐index, 0.661 [95%CI, 0.658–0.664]). In women and men, the Cox proportional hazard models including 50 most important predictors resulted in an increase in C‐index (0.030 and 0.012, respectively), and a net correct reclassification of 3.7% of the events in women and 1.2% in men compared with the reference model.ConclusionsSex‐specific electronic health record‐derived prediction models for first‐ever cardiovascular events in the general population aged Paroxysmal Cerebral Disorder

A replication study of genetic risk loci for ischemic stroke in a Dutch population: A case-control study

We aimed to replicate reported associations of 10 SNPs at eight distinct loci with overall ischemic stroke (IS) and its subtypes in an independent cohort of Dutch IS patients. We included 1,375 IS patients enrolled in a prospective multicenter hospital-based cohort in the Netherlands, and 1,533 population-level controls of Dutch descent. We tested these SNPs for association with overall IS and its subtypes (large artery atherosclerosis, small vessel disease and cardioembolic stroke (CE), as classified by TOAST) using an additive multivariable logistic regression model, adjusting for age and sex. We obtained odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the risk allele of each SNP analyzed and exact p-values by permutation. We confirmed the association at 4q25 (PITX2) (OR 1.43; 95% CI, 1.13-1.81, p = 0.029) and 16q22 (ZFHX3) (OR 1.62; 95% CI, 1.26-2.07, p = 0.001) as risk loci for CE. Locus 16q22 was also associated with overall IS (OR 1.24; 95% CI, 1.08-1.42, p = 0.016). Other loci previously associated with IS and/or its subtypes were not confirmed. In conclusion, we validated two loci (4q25, 16q22) associated with CE. In addition, our study may suggest that the association of locus 16q22 may not be limited to CE, but also includes overall IS

Sex differences in risk profile, stroke cause and outcome in ischemic stroke patients with and without migraine

Background: An increased risk of stroke in patients with migraine has been primarily found for women. The sex-dependent mechanisms underlying the migraine-stroke association, however, remain unknown. This study aims to explore these sex differences to improve our understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms behind the migraine-stroke association.Methods: We included 2,492 patients with ischemic stroke from the prospective multicenter Dutch Parelsnoer Institute Initiative study, 425 (17%) of whom had a history of migraine. Cardiovascular risk profile, stroke cause (TOAST classification), and outcome [modified Rankin scale (mRS) at 3 months] were compared with both sexes between patients with and without migraine.Results: A history of migraine was not associated with sex differences in the prevalence of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Women with migraine had an increased risk of stroke at young age (onset = 3 RR 1.1; 95% CI 0.7-1.5), whereas men seemed to have a higher risk of poor outcome compared with their counterparts without migraine (mRS >= 3 RR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.1).Conclusion: Our results indicate possible sex differences in the pathophysiology underlying the migraine-stroke association, which are unrelated to conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Further research in larger cohorts is needed to validate these findings.Public Health and primary carePrevention, Population and Disease management (PrePoD

Distribution of Cardioembolic Stroke: A Cohort Study

Background: A cardiac origin in ischemic stroke is more frequent than previously assumed, but it is not clear which patients benefit from cardiac work-up if obvious cardiac pathology is absent. We hypothesized that thromboembolic stroke with a cardiac source occurs more frequently in the posterior circulation compared with thromboembolic stroke of another etiology. Methods: We performed a multicenter observational study in 3,311 consecutive patients with ischemic stroke who were enrolled in an ongoing prospective stroke registry of 8 University hospitals between September 2009 and November 2014 in The Netherlands. In thi

Non-invasive early exclusion of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension after acute pulmonary embolism: the InShape II study

Background The current diagnostic delay of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) after pulmonary embolism (PE) is unacceptably long, causing loss of quality-adjusted life years and excess mortality. Validated screening strategies for early CTEPH diagnosis are lacking. Echocardiographic screening among all PE survivors is associated with overdiagnosis and cost-ineffectiveness. We aimed to validate a simple screening strategy for excluding CTEPH early after acute PE, limiting the number of performed echocardiograms. Methods In this prospective, international, multicentre management study, consecutive patients were managed according to a screening algorithm starting 3 months after acute PE to determine whether echocardiographic evaluation of pulmonary hypertension (PH) was indicated. If the 'CTEPH prediction score' indicated high pretest probability or matching symptoms were present, the 'CTEPH rule-out criteria' were applied, consisting of ECG reading and N-terminalpro-brain natriuretic peptide. Only if these results could not rule out possible PH, the patients were referred for echocardiography. Results 424 patients were included. Based on the algorithm, CTEPH was considered absent in 343 (81%) patients, leaving 81 patients (19%) referred for echocardiography. During 2-year follow-up, one patient in whom echocardiography was deemed unnecessary by the algorithm was diagnosed with CTEPH, reflecting an algorithm failure rate of 0.29% (95% CI 0% to 1.6%). Overall CTEPH incidence was 3.1% (13/424), of whom 10 patients were diagnosed within 4 months after the PE presentation. Conclusions The InShape II algorithm accurately excluded CTEPH, without the need for echocardiography in the overall majority of patients. CTEPH was identified early after acute PE, resulting in a substantially shorter diagnostic delay than in current practice.Cardiolog

Difference in rupture risk between familial and sporadic intracranial aneurysms an individual patient data meta-analysis

Background and Objectives We combined individual patient data (IPD) from prospective cohorts of patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) to assess to what extent patients with familial UIA have a higher rupture risk than those with sporadic UIA. Methods For this IPD meta-analysis, we performed an Embase and PubMed search for studies published up to December 1, 2020. We included studies that (1) had a prospective study design; (2) included 50 or more patients with UIA; (3) studied the natural course of UIA and risk factors for aneurysm rupture including family history for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage and UIA; and (4) had aneurysm rupture as an outcome. Cohorts with available IPD were included. All studies included patients with newly diagnosed UIA visiting one of the study centers. The primary outcome was aneurysmal rupture. Patients with polycystic kidney disease and moyamoya disease were excluded. We compared rupture rates of familial vs sporadic UIA using a Cox proportional hazard regression model adjusted for PHASES score and smoking. We performed 2 analyses: (1) only studies defining first-degree relatives as parents, children, and siblings and (2) all studies, including those in which first-degree relatives are defined as only parents and children, but not siblings. Results We pooled IPD from 8 cohorts with a low and moderate risk of bias. First-degree relatives were defined as parents, siblings, and children in 6 cohorts (29% Dutch, 55% Finnish, 15% Japanese), totaling 2,297 patients (17% familial, 399 patients) with 3,089 UIAs and 7,301 person-years follow-up. Rupture occurred in 10 familial cases (rupture rate: 0.89%/person-year; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45-1.59) and 41 sporadic cases (0.66%/person-year; 95% CI 0.48-0.89); adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for familial cases 2.56 (95% CI 1.18-5.56). After adding the 2 cohorts excluding siblings as first-degree relatives, resulting in 9,511 patients, the adjusted HR was 1.44 (95% CI 0.86-2.40). Discussion The risk of rupture of UIA is 2.5 times higher, with a range from a 1.2 to 5 times higher risk, in familial than in sporadic UIA. When assessing the risk of rupture in UIA, family history should be taken into account.Paroxysmal Cerebral Disorder

Dutch parelsnoer institute-cerebrovascular accident (CVA) study: A large multicenter clinical biobank with stan

The Dutch Parelsnoer Institute-Cerebrovascular accident (CVA) Study is part of the Parelsnoer Institute (PSI), initiated in 2007 by the Netherlands Federation of University Medical Centers (NFU). PSI is a cooperation of all eight Dutch University Medical Centers (UMCs) and aims at building large prospectively collected datasets with uniformly and standardized storage of biomaterials for complex diseases. Currently, PSI covers 18 disease-specific cohorts called 'Pearls', and this number is still growing. One of these cohorts is the Stroke or CVA Pearl. For each of the cohorts, PSI offers the UMCs an infrastructure and standard procedures for storing the specific biomaterials in their certified biobanks. Clinical data are stored in a central database after being pseudonymized to ensure patient privacy. For the Parelsnoer Institute-CVA Study, blood for genetic analysis, serum and plasma are collected according to nationally agreed standards. Currently (November 2017) the Stroke Pearl has stored blood samples with prospectively obtained clinical data of around 6000 patients in all UMCs combined. Blood samples and data are available for all researchers with a methodologically valid research proposal

Genetic risk score for intracranial aneurysms: prediction of subarachnoid hemorrhage and role in clinical heterogeneity

Background:Recently, common genetic risk factors for intracranial aneurysm (IA) and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (ASAH) were found to explain a large amount of disease heritability and therefore have potential to be used for genetic risk prediction. We constructed a genetic risk score to (1) predict ASAH incidence and IA presence (combined set of unruptured IA and ASAH) and (2) assess its association with patient characteristics. Methods:A genetic risk score incorporating genetic association data for IA and 17 traits related to IA (so-called metaGRS) was created using 1161 IA cases and 407 392 controls from the UK Biobank population study. The metaGRS was validated in combination with risk factors blood pressure, sex, and smoking in 828 IA cases and 68 568 controls from the Nordic HUNT population study. Furthermore, we assessed association between the metaGRS and patient characteristics in a cohort of 5560 IA patients. Results:Per SD increase of metaGRS, the hazard ratio for ASAH incidence was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.20-1.51) and the odds ratio for IA presence 1.09 (95% CI, 1.01-1.18). Upon including the metaGRS on top of clinical risk factors, the concordance index to predict ASAH hazard increased from 0.63 (95% CI, 0.59-0.67) to 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.69), while prediction of IA presence did not improve. The metaGRS was statistically significantly associated with age at ASAH (beta=-4.82x10(-3) per year [95% CI, -6.49x10(-3) to -3.14x10(-3)]; P=1.82x10(-8)), and location of IA at the internal carotid artery (odds ratio=0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98]; P=0.0041). Conclusions:The metaGRS was predictive of ASAH incidence, although with limited added value over clinical risk factors. The metaGRS was not predictive of IA presence. Therefore, we do not recommend using this metaGRS in daily clinical care. Genetic risk does partly explain the clinical heterogeneity of IA warranting prioritization of clinical heterogeneity in future genetic prediction studies of IA and ASAH.Paroxysmal Cerebral Disorder

The Dutch Parelsnoer Institute Cerebrovascular Disease Initiative: a retrospective study of the effects of integrating clinical care and research on costs and quality of care in patients with ischaemic stroke

INTRODUCTION: The Dutch Parelsnoer Institute (PSI) is a collaboration between all university medical centres in which clinical data, imaging and biomaterials are prospectively and uniformly collected for research purposes. The PSI has the ambition to integrate data collected in the context of clinical care with data collected primarily for research purposes. We aimed to evaluate the effects of such integrated registration on costs, efficiency and quality of care. METHODS: We retrospectively included patients with cerebral ischaemia of the PSI Cerebrovascular Disease Consortium at two participating centres, one applying an integrated approach on registration of clinical and research data and another with a separate method of registration. We determined the effect of integrated registration on (1) costs and time efficiency using a comparative matched cohort study in 40 patients and (2) quality of the discharge letter in a retrospective cohort study of 400 patients. RESULTS: A shorter registration time (mean difference of -4.6 min, SD 4.7, p=0.001) and a higher quality score of discharge letters (mean difference of 856 points, SD 40.8, p<0.001) was shown for integrated registration compared with separate registration. Integrated registration of data of 300 patients per year would save around euro700 salary costs per year. CONCLUSION: Integrated registration of clinical and research data in patients with cerebral ischaemia is associated with some decrease in salary costs, while at the same time, increased time efficiency and quality of the discharge letter are accomplished. Thus, we recommend integrated registration of clinical and research data in centres with high-volume registration only, due to the initial investments needed to adopt the registration software

Delayed cerebral ischemia after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in young patients with a history of migraine

Background: Young patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and a history of migraine may have an increased risk of delayed cerebral ischemia. We investigated this potential association in a prospective cohort of aSAH patients under 50 years of age. Methods: In our prospective cohort study, we included patients with aSAH under 50 years of age from 3 hospitals in the Netherlands. We assessed lifetime migraine history with a short screener. Delayed cerebral ischemia was defined as neurological deterioration lasting >1 hour not attributable to other causes by diagnostic workup. Adjustments were made for possible confounders in multivariable Cox regression analyses, and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated. Results: We included 236 young aSAH patients (mean age, 41 years; 64% women) of whom 44 (19%) had a history of migraine (16 with aura). Patients with aSAH and a history of migraine were not at increased risk of developing delayed cerebral ischemia compared with patients without migraine (25% versus 20%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.57-2.35]). Additionally, no increased risk was found in migraine patients with aura (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.30-2.44]) or in women (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 0.58-2.68]). Conclusions: Patients with aSAH under the age of 50 years with a history of migraine are not at increased risk of delayed cerebral ischemia.</p