Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO2 concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO2 concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios

Life cycle inventory modeling of phosphorus substitution, losses and crop uptake after land application of organic waste products

Purpose: Life cycle assessments (LCAs) that attempt to provide advice on treatment options for phosphorus (P) containing organic waste products encounter problems related to the quantification of mineral P fertilizer substitution, P loss and crop P uptake after land application. The purpose of this study was to develop a relatively easy to use life cycle inventory model, known as PLCI, that could be used to estimate these values. Methods: A life cycle inventory model for P was developed, which estimates the effect of an application of organic waste followed by ordinary fertilizer management in the modeling period. This was compared with a simulation without the initial waste application. The difference in mineral P fertilizer application (substitution), P loss and crop P uptake was then calculated and expressed as a proportion of the amount of waste applied. As an example, the effect of an initial application of mineral fertilizer, sewage sludge and ash on two farm types was simulated. These results were applied in an LCA case study of different sewage sludge treatment options. Results and discussion: Farm type influenced the P fertilizer substitution, loss and crop uptake factors. The application on an arable farm showed a substitution of 28 to 31%, relatively low P loss and a large spread in crop P uptake for the different P sources, compared with the pig farm. Application on a pig farm showed no mineral P substitution. For substitution, mineral fertilizer outperformed waste product fertilizer with a short modeling period, due to higher immediate P availability, which was not the case with a long period. The LCA case study showed that the P substitution factor had an influence on the environmental impact categories climate change and depletion of reserve-based abiotic resources while the P loss factor influenced freshwater eutrophication. Application of the P loss and substitution factors generated from the PLCI model resulted in higher environmental burdens and lower savings than using conventional factors. Conclusions: The soil P status mainly affected P substitution and loss, with the fertilizer type only having a small influence when soils had a low P status. The PLCI model can facilitate more coherent and rigorous estimates of P substitution and loss to be used in LCA studies involving application of waste products on agricultural land. This is important since P substitution and loss can have an important influence on impact categories, such as freshwater eutrophication and resource depletion