THE AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT SIMULATOR MICROCOMPUTER PROGRAM

The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator (ARMS) is a microcomputer program designed to help users evaluate strategies for managing yield and price risk in crop farming operations. Risk management strategies are defined by choices regarding crop mix, the purchase of multiple peril crop insurance, and the use of forward contracting. Probabilistic budgeting is used to determine the net cash flow probability distribution for each strategy considered. Flexibility with regard to both sources of probabilistic information and the form of yield and price probability distributions is a noteworthy feature of the program.Risk and Uncertainty,

Effect of Particle Size on Droplet Infiltration into Hydrophobic Porous Media As a Model of Water Repellent Soil

The wettability of soil is of great importance for plants and soil biota, and in determining the risk for preferential flow, surface runoff, flooding,and soil erosion. The molarity of ethanol droplet (MED) test is widely used for quantifying the severity of water repellency in soils that show reduced wettability and is assumed to be independent of soil particle size. The minimum ethanol concentration at which droplet penetration occurs within a short time (≤10 s) provides an estimate of the initial advancing contact angle at which spontaneous wetting is expected. In this study, we test the assumption of particle size independence using a simple model of soil, represented by layers of small (0.2–2 mm) diameter beads that predict the effect of changing bead radius in the top layer on capillary driven imbibition. Experimental results using a three-layer bead system show broad agreement with the model and demonstrate a dependence of the MED test on particle size. The results show that the critical initial advancing contact angle for penetration can be considerably less than 90° and varies with particle size, demonstrating that a key assumption currently used in the MED testing of soil is not necessarily valid

Measurement of fisheries compliance outcomes : a preliminary national study : FRDC final report

This report presents the results of a project undertaken by a group of Australia and United States based fishery compliance experts to assess and compare methods for measuring fisheries compliance outcomes that can be used to assess and compare the effectiveness of fishery enforcement and compliance assistance activities. This eight month project was requested in 2013 by Australia’s National Fisheries Compliance Committee (NFCC) as a way to provide fisheries compliance groups with improved methods for measuring and tracking the effectiveness of their activities and for justifying and managing their budgets

Commensurate anisotropic oscillator, SU(2) coherent states and the classical limit

We demonstrate a formally exact quantum-classical correspondence between the stationary coherent states associated with the commensurate anisotropic two-dimensional harmonic oscillator and the classical Lissajous orbits. Our derivation draws upon earlier work of Louck et al [1973 \textit {J. Math. Phys.} \textbf {14} 692] wherein they have provided a non-bijective canonical transformation that maps, within a degenerate eigenspace, the commensurate anisotropic oscillator on to the isotropic oscillator. This mapping leads, in a natural manner, to a Schwinger realization of SU(2) in terms of the canonically transformed creation and annihilation operators. Through the corresponding coherent states built over a degenerate eigenspace, we directly effect the classical limit via the expectation values of the underlying generators. Our work completely accounts for the fact that the SU(2) coherent state in general corresponds to an ensemble of Lissajous orbits.Comment: 11 pages, Latex2e, iopart.cls, replaced with published versio

Spreading in Social Systems: Reflections

In this final chapter, we consider the state-of-the-art for spreading in social systems and discuss the future of the field. As part of this reflection, we identify a set of key challenges ahead. The challenges include the following questions: how can we improve the quality, quantity, extent, and accessibility of datasets? How can we extract more information from limited datasets? How can we take individual cognition and decision making processes into account? How can we incorporate other complexity of the real contagion processes? Finally, how can we translate research into positive real-world impact? In the following, we provide more context for each of these open questions.Comment: 7 pages, chapter to appear in "Spreading Dynamics in Social Systems"; Eds. Sune Lehmann and Yong-Yeol Ahn, Springer Natur

Reviews

The following publications have been reviewed by the mentioned authors;Welsh Crafts by Mary Eirwen Jones, reviewed by Roy NashA Source Book of Picture Making by Henry Pluckrose, reviewed by R. HartApproaches to Drawing by Leo Walmsley, reviewed by John EgglestonMoulded and Slip Cast Pottery and Ceramics by David Cowley, reviewed by Michael PaffardPainting by John Lancaster, reviewed by R. N. MacGregorDesign Resource Sheets by R. N. Billington and J. R. Jeffrey, reviewed by Dick SuttonEnamelling on Metal, Oppi. Intracht, reviewed by J. N. AtkinsProcesses by Jack Bainbridge, reviewed by Michael SayerArtists and People by Su Braden, reviewed by Roy ShawMake Your Own Musical Instrument by Stuart Dalby, reviewed by Eric DecorteDesign in General Education by John Harahan, reviewed by Bernard AylwardPainting Without a Brush by Roy Sparkes, reviewed by John LancasterBuilding Craft Equipment by A. Jay and Carol W. Abrams, reviewed by S. R. BlundellPyrography by Berhand Havez and Jean-Claude Varlet, reviewed by Paul Kin

Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong. METHODS: We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age and the time from onset to admission. FINDINGS: After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% CI 5.2-7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8-16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2-52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric gamma distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0-9.6) and 55.0% (45.3-64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine

The characteristics of suicides within a week of discharge after psychiatric hospitalisation – a nationwide register study

BACKGROUND: The characteristics of victims of immediate post-discharge suicides are not well known. We explored these characteristics for the purposes of better recognition and preventive efforts of potential immediate post-discharge suicides. METHODS: Suicides from a Finnish nationwide register were linked with preceding periods of psychiatric inpatient treatment. Characteristics of suicides within a week of discharge were compared to those occurring later after discharge. RESULTS: Compared to other previously hospitalised suicide victims, those committing suicide within a week of discharge were more often female, unmarried, had a higher grade of education and a diagnosis of schizophrenia spectrum or affective disorder, tended to use more drowning and jumping from heights as the methods for suicide and had gained a smaller improvement in psychological functioning during hospitalization. CONCLUSION: These characteristics indicate a more severe psychopathology, relatively poorer level of functioning, less global response to hospitalisation, and a more frequent choice of lethal and easily available method for suicide. Potentially suicidal psychiatric patients should be better recognized and an immediate follow-up arranged if it is decided they be discharged

Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions.

We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission

Ageing opioid users' increased risk of methadone-specific death in the UK

BACKGROUND: The first evidence that the hazard ratio (HR) for methadone-specific death rises more steeply with age-group than for all drug-related deaths (DRDs) came from Scotland's cohort of 33,000 methadone-prescription clients. We aim to examine, for England, whether illicit opioid users' risk of methadone-specific death increases with age; and to pool age-related HRs for methadone-specific deaths with those for Scotland's methadone-prescription clients. METHODS: The setting is all services in England that provide publicly-funded, structured treatment for illicit opioid users, the methodology linkage of the English National Drug Treatment Monitoring System and mortality database, and key measurements are DRDs, methadone-specific DRDs, or heroin-specific DRDs, by age-group and gender, with proportional hazards adjustment for substances used, injecting status and periods in/out of treatment. RESULTS: Linkage was achieved for 129,979 adults receiving prescribing treatment modalities for opioid dependence during April 2005 to March 2009 and followed-up for 378,009 person-years (pys). There were 1,266 DRDs: 271 methadone-specific (7 per 10,000 pys: irrespective of gender) and 473 heroin-specific (15 per 10,000 pys for males, 7 for females). Methadone-specific DRD-rate per 10,000 person-years was 3.5 (95% CI: 2.7-4.4) at 18-34 years, 8.9 (CI: 7.3-10.5) at 35-44 years and 18 (CI: 13.8-21.2) at 45+ years; heroin-specific DRD-rate was unchanged with age. Relative to 25-34 years, pooled HRs for UK clients' methadone-specific deaths were: 0.87 at <25 years (95% CI: 0.56-1.35); 2.14 at 35-44 years (95% CI: 1.76-2.60); 3.75 at 45+ years (95% CI: 2.99-4.70). CONCLUSION: International testing and explanation are needed of UK's sharp age-related increase in the risk of methadone-specific death. Clients should be alerted that their risk of methadone-specific death increases as they age