A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

The market for salmon futures: an empirical analysis of fish pool using the Schwartz multifactor model

Using the popular Schwartz 97 two-factor approach, we study future contracts written on fresh farmed salmon, which have been actively traded at the Fish Pool Market in Norway since 2006. This approach features a stochastic convenience yield for the salmon spot price. We connect this approach with the classical literature on fish-farming and aquaculture using first principles, starting by modeling the aggregate salmon farming production process and modeling the demand using a Cobb-Douglas utility function for a representative consumer. The model is estimated by means of Kalman filtering, using a rich data set of contracts with different maturities traded at Fish Pool between 12/06/2006 and 22/03/2012. The results are then discussed in the context of other commodity markets, specifically live cattle which acts as a substitute

The pitfalls of ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting is difficult but essential, because reactive management results in corrective actions that are often too late to avert significant environmental damage. Here, we appraise different forecasting methods with a particular focus on the modelling of species populations. We show how simple extrapolation of current trends in state is often inadequate because environmental drivers change in intensity over time and new drivers emerge. However, statistical models, incorporating relationships with drivers, simply offset the prediction problem, requiring us to forecast how the drivers will themselves change over time. Some authors approach this problem by focusing in detail on a single driver, whilst others use ‘storyline’ scenarios, which consider projected changes in a wide range of different drivers. We explain why both approaches are problematic and identify a compromise to model key drivers and interactions along with possible response options to help inform environmental management. We also highlight the crucial role of validation of forecasts using independent data. Although these issues are relevant for all types of ecological forecasting, we provide examples based on forecasts for populations of UK butterflies. We show how a high goodness-of-fit for models used to calibrate data is not sufficient for good forecasting. Long-term biological recording schemes rather than experiments will often provide data for ecological forecasting and validation because these schemes allow capture of landscape-scale land-use effects and their interactions with other drivers

Storageless and caching Tier-2 models in the UK context

Operational and other pressures have lead to WLCG experiments moving increasingly to a stratified model for Tier-2 resources, where ``fat" Tier-2s (``T2Ds") and ``thin" Tier-2s (``T2Cs") provide different levels of service. In the UK, this distinction is also encouraged by the terms of the current GridPP5 funding model. In anticipation of this, testing has been performed on the implications, and potential implementation, of such a distinction in our resources. In particular, this presentation presents the results of testing of storage T2Cs, where the ``thin" nature is expressed by the site having either no local data storage, or only a thin caching layer; data is streamed or copied from a ``nearby" T2D when needed by jobs. In OSG, this model has been adopted successfully for CMS AAA sites; but the network topology and capacity in the USA is significantly different to that in the UK (and much of Europe). We present the result of several operational tests: the in-production University College London (UCL) site, which runs ATLAS workloads using storage at the Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) site; the Oxford site, which has had scaling tests performed against T2Ds in various locations in the UK (to test network effects); and the Durham site, which has been testing the specific ATLAS caching solution of ``Rucio Cache" integration with ARC's caching layer

The synthesis, structure, topology and catalytic application of a novel cubane-based copper(II) metal-organic framework derived from a flexible amido tripodal acid

A novel chiral metal-organic framework, [Cu-4(HL)(2)(H2O)(4)(MeO)(4)](n) (1), has been successfully synthesized from a tripodal flexible ligand (2S, 2'S, 2 '' S)- 2,2', 2 ''-(benzenetricarbonyltris(azanediyl)) tripropanoic acid (H3L). Compound 1 was characterized by IR and X-ray powder diffraction analysis. The structure was determined by X-ray single crystal diffraction analysis revealing that 1 possesses a 3D network, featuring a tetranuclear cubane-type secondary building block [Cu-4(MeO)(4)](4+), formed via the connection of four metal ions to four methoxide ions. These secondary building blocks are linked by four different HL2- ligands to construct a porous three dimensional framework of the dia topology with one-dimensional channels. Compound 1 also acts as a heterogeneous catalyst for the diastereoselective nitroaldol (Henry) reaction, providing high yields (up to 91%) and good diastereoselectivities under ambient conditions. This catalyst can be recycled without significant loss of activity

Rotator cuff related shoulder pain: does the type of exercise influence the outcomes? – Protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

Introduction Lifetime prevalence of shoulder pain is 70%, and approximately 50% of people with shoulder pain will experience pain for more than a year. Rotator cuff-related shoulder pain (RCRSP) is the most common shoulder condition and the main non-surgical intervention is exercise therapy. For approximately 30% of people with RCRSP, this approach does not lead to a significant reduction in symptoms. This may be due to an inappropriate dosage or choice of exercises. The aim of this investigation is to compare the short, mid and long-term effects, in terms of symptoms, functional limitations, kinesiophobia and pain catastrophising, of three different shoulder rehabilitation approaches (education, strengthening, motor control) in adults with RCRSP. Methods and analysis In this single-blind (assessor), parallel-group, randomised clinical trial, 123 adults presenting with RCRSP will take part in a 12-week rehabilitation programme. They will be randomly assigned to one of three groups (education only, strengthening approach or motor control-focused approach). Abbreviated version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand Questionnaire, the primary outcome, Western Ontario Rotator Cuff Index and Brief Pain Inventory will evaluate symptoms and functional limitations, while Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia and Pain Catastrophizing Scale will evaluate pain-related fear and catastrophising at baseline and at 3, 6, 12 and 24 weeks. Ultrasonographic acromiohumeral distances and tendon thickness will be assessed at baseline and 12 weeks. Intervention groups will be compared on outcomes with intention-to-treat analyses using two-way repeated measures analysis of variance if the data are normally distributed or non-parametric analysis of longitudinal data if they are not. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was obtained from the Sectorial Rehabilitation and Social Integration Research Ethics Committee of the Centre Intégré Universitaire de Santé et de Services Sociaux de la Capitale Nationale (CIUSSS-CN). Results will be disseminated through international publications in peer-reviewed journals, in addition to international conference presentations.Peer reviewe