One Year Post-\u3cem\u3eBruen\u3c/em\u3e: An Empirical Assessment

In the year after New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, a steady stream of highly publicized opinions struck down a wide range of previously upheld gun restrictions. Courts declared unconstitutional policies ranging from assault weapon bans to domestic abuser prohibitions to various limits on publicly carrying handguns. Those opinions can frequently be paired with others reaching the opposite conclusion. The extent to which Bruen shook up the Second Amendment landscape and has caused widespread confusion in the courts is starting to come into focus. This Essay measures Bruen’s aftereffects by statistically analyzing a year’s worth of Second Amendment opinions. We coded more than 450 challenges for dozens of variables including both case and judge characteristics, resulting in a comprehensive post-Bruen Second Amendment dataset. The findings of our analysis provide an objective basis for assessing the upheaval wrought by Bruen and highlight both unanswered questions and immense challenges for Second Amendment doctrine in the coming years

Evaluation of multiple interventions using a stepped wedge design

Background: Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials are a class of unidirectional crossover studies that have historically been limited to evaluating a single intervention. This design is especially suitable for pragmatic trials where the study feasibility can be improved with a phased introduction of the intervention. We examined variations of stepped wedge designs that would support evaluation of multiple interventions. Methods: We propose four different design variants for implementing a stepped wedge trial with two interventions: concurrent design, supplementation, replacement, and factorial designs. Analyses were conducted comparing the precision of the estimated intervention effects for the different designs. Results: Concurrent, supplementation, and factorial variants provide equal precision for estimating the treatment effect within a design for each of the interventions. However, in the replacement design, the effect of the first introduced intervention is generally estimated more precisely than the second intervention. Surprising and nonintuitive changes in the precision of the intervention effect estimates are observed when additional observation time intervals are included in multiple intervention designs. Conclusion: These stepped wedge design variations offer alternative methods for studying two interventions using a cluster-randomized trial. The selection of the appropriate variants should be driven by the research question with consideration given to the trade-off in number of steps, number of clusters, restrictions for concurrent implementation based on intervention characteristics, lingering effects of each intervention, and desired ability to compare interventions within clusters or within the same steps

Life experiences associated with change in perpetration of domestic violence.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed whether several adult life experiences, including loss of support, loss of food security, loss of housing, and substance use cessation, are associated with change in domestic violence (DV) perpetration from early to later adulthood. Using 2015 to 2016 cross-sectional, self-report survey data from Medicaid enrollees in Oregon (N = 1620), we assessed change in DV perpetration from early adulthood (19-30 years) to later adulthood (≥ 31 years of age), cut points determined by existing survey questions. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to estimate the association between life experiences and physical DV perpetration using odds ratios (OR), adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, DV victimization, and childhood abuse, bullying, and social support. FINDINGS: Of the 20% of participants who perpetrated DV, 36% perpetrated DV in both early and later adulthood (persisters), 42% discontinued (desisters) and 22% began (late-onsetters) perpetration in later adulthood. Loss of support and loss of food security were both associated with change in DV perpetration (i.e., desistance or late onset of perpetration or both). Loss of support was associated with 9.5 times higher odds of being a desister (OR = 9.5, 95% CI = 1.1, 84.1) and 54.2 times higher odds of being a late-onsetter (OR = 54.2, 95% CI = 6.5, 450.8) of DV perpetration compared to persisters. Loss of food security was associated with 10.3 times higher odds of being a late-onsetter (OR = 10.3, 95% CI = 1.9, 55.4) of DV perpetration compared to persisters. In addition, substance use cessation was associated with 10.3 times higher odds of being a desister (OR = 10.3, 95% CI = 1.9, 56.2) compared to persisters. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that specific life experiences in adulthood, including loss of support, loss of food security, and substance use cessation, are associated with changes in DV perpetration

Earned Income Tax Credit and Youth Violence: Findings from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System.

Family- and neighborhood-level poverty are associated with youth violence. Economic policies may address this risk factor by reducing parental stress and increasing opportunities. The federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest cash transfer program in the US providing support to low-income working families. Many states have additional EITCs that vary in structure and generosity. To estimate the association between state EITC and youth violence, we conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis using the variation in state EITC generosity over time by state and self-reported data in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) from 2005 to 2019. We estimated the association for all youth and then stratified by sex and race and ethnicity. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 3.8% lower prevalence of physical fighting among youth, overall (PR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.99), and for male students, 149 fewer (95% CI: -243, -55) students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 118 fewer (95% CI: -184, -52) White students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting in the past 12 months while reductions among Black students (75 fewer; 95% CI: -176, 26) and Hispanic/Latino students (14 fewer; 95% CI: -93, 65) were not statistically significant. State EITC generosity was not significantly associated with measures of violence at school. Economic policies that increase financial security and provide financial resources may reduce the burden of youth violence; further attention to their differential benefits among specific population subgroups is warranted

A retrospective time trend study of firearm and nonfirearm homicide in Cape Town from 1994 to 2013

Background. Gunshot injuries from interpersonal violence are a major cause of mortality. In South Africa (SA), the Firearms Control Act of 2000 sought to address firearm violence by removing illegally owned firearms from circulation, stricter regulation of legally owned firearms, and stricter licensing requirements. Over the last few years, varied implementation of the Act and police corruption have increased firearm availability.Objectives. To investigate whether changes in firearm availability in SA were associated with changes in firearm homicide rates.Methods. This was a retrospective time trend study (1994 - 2013) using postmortem data. Time trends of firearm and non-firearm homicide rates were analysed with generalised linear models. Distinct time periods for temporal trends were assigned based on a priori assumptions regarding changes in the availability of firearms.Results. Firearm and non-firearm homicide rates adjusted for age, sex and race exhibited different temporal trends. Non-firearm homicide rates either decreased or remained stable over the entire period. Firearm homicide increased at 13% annually from 1994 through 2000, and decreased by 15% from 2003 through 2006, corresponding with changes in firearm availability in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011. A 21% annual increase in firearm homicide after 2010 coincided with police fast-tracking new firearm licence applications. Cape Town’s coloured population experienced a significantly greater increase than other population groups following additional exposure to illegal firearms from 2007.Conclusions. The strong association between firearm availability and homicide, and the reversal of a decreasing firearm homicide trend during a period of lax enforcement, provide further support for the association between reduced firearm homicide and stricter regulation

A multi-state evaluation of extreme risk protection orders: a research protocol.

BACKGROUND: Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs) are civil court orders that prohibit firearm purchase and possession when someone is behaving dangerously and is at risk of harming themselves and/or others. As of June 2024, ERPOs are available in 21 states and the District of Columbia to prevent firearm violence. This paper describes the design and protocol of a six-state study of ERPO use. METHODS: The six states included are California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington. During the 3-year project period (2020-2023), ERPO case files were obtained through public records requests or through agreements with agencies with access to these data in each state. A team of over four dozen research assistants from seven institutions coded 6628 ERPO cases, abstracting 80 variables per case under domains related to respondent characteristics, events and behaviors leading to ERPO petitions, petitioner types, and court outcomes. Research assistants received didactic training through an online learning management system that included virtual training modules, quizzes, practice coding exercises, and two virtual synchronous sessions. A protocol for gaining strong interrater reliability was used. Research assistants also learned strategies for reducing the risk of experiencing secondary trauma through the coding process, identifying its occurrence, and obtaining help. DISCUSSION: Addressing firearm violence in the U.S. is a priority. Understanding ERPO use in these six states can inform implementation planning and ERPO uptake, including promising opportunities to enhance safety and prevent firearm-related injuries and deaths. By publishing this protocol, we offer detailed insight into the methods underlying the papers published from these data, and the process of managing data abstraction from ERPO case files across the multi-state and multi-institution teams involved. Such information may also inform future analyses of this data, and future replication efforts. REGISTRATION: This protocol is registered on Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/kv4fc/ )

The relationship between livestock ownership and child stunting in three countries in eastern Africa using national survey data

Livestock ownership has the potential to improve child nutrition through various mechanisms, although direct evaluations of household livestock and child stunting status are uncommon. We conducted an analysis of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets from Ethiopia (2011), Kenya (2008-2009), and Uganda (2010) among rural children under 5 years of age to compare stunting status across levels of livestock ownership. We classified livestock ownership by summing reported household numbers of goats, sheep, cattle and chickens, as well as calculating a weighted score to combine multiple species. The primary association was assessed separately by country using a log-binomial model adjusted for wealth and region, which was then stratified by child diarrheal illness, animal-source foods intake, sub-region, and wealth index. This analysis included n = 8079 children from Ethiopia, n = 3903 children from Kenya, and n = 1645 from Uganda. A ten-fold increase in household livestock ownership had significant association with lower stunting prevalence in Ethiopia (Prevalence Ratio [PR] 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98) and Uganda (PR 0.87, 95% CI 0.79-0.97), but not Kenya (PR 1.01, 95% CI 0.96-1.07). The weighted livestock score was only marginally associated with stunting status. The findings varied slightly by region, but not by wealth, diarrheal disease, or animal-source food intake. This analysis suggested a slightly beneficial effect of household livestock ownership on child stunting prevalence. The small effect size observed may be related to limitations of the DHS dataset or the potentially complicated relationship between malnutrition and livestock ownership, including livestock health and productivity

Efficacy and Safety of Prophylactic Vaccines against Cervical HPV Infection and Diseases among Women: A Systematic Review & Meta-Analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess efficacy and safety of prophylactic HPV vaccines against cervical cancer precursor events in women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Randomized-controlled trials of HPV vaccines were identified from MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, conference abstracts and references of identified studies, and assessed by two independent reviewers. Efficacy data were synthesized using fixed-effect models, and evaluated for heterogeneity using I²statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seven unique trials enrolling 44,142 females were included. The fixed-effect Relative Risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were 0.04 (0.01-0.11) and 0.10 (0.03-0.38) for HPV-16 and HPV 18-related CIN2+ in the per-protocol populations (PPP). The corresponding RR was 0.47 (0.36-0.61) and 0.16 (0.08-0.34) in the intention-to-treat populations (ITT). Efficacy against CIN1+ was similar in scale in favor of vaccine. Overall vaccines were highly efficacious against 6-month persistent infection with HPV 16 and 18, both in the PPP cohort (RR: 0.06 [0.04-0.09] and 0.05 [0.03-0.09], respectively), and the ITT cohorts (RR: 0.15 [0.10-0.23] and 0.24 [0.14-0.42], respectively). There was limited prophylactic effect against CIN2+ and 6-month persistent infections associated with non-vaccine oncogenic HPV types. The risk of serious adverse events (RR: 1.00, 0.91-1.09) or vaccine-related serious adverse events (RR: 1.82; 0.79-4.20) did not differ significantly between vaccine and control groups. Data on abnormal pregnancy outcomes were underreported.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Prophylactic HPV vaccines are safe, well tolerated, and highly efficacious in preventing persistent infections and cervical diseases associated with vaccine-HPV types among young females. However, long-term efficacy and safety needs to be addressed in future trials.</p