A WARNING ABOUT USING PREDICTED VALUES TO ESTIMATE DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES

In a recent article in the Journal, Ogburn et al. highlighted the issues with using predicted values when estimating associations or effects. While the authors cautioned against using predicted values to estimate associations or effects, they noted that predictions can be useful for descriptive purposes. In this work, we highlight the issues with using individual-level predicted values to estimate population-level descriptive parameter

Meta-Analysis and Sparse-Data Bias

Meta-analyses are undertaken to combine information from a set of studies, often in settings where some of the individual study-specific estimates are based on relatively small study samples. Finite sample bias may occur when maximum likelihood estimates of associations are obtained by fitting logistic regression models to sparse data sets. Here we show that combining information from small studies by undertaking a meta-analytical summary of logistic regression estimates can propagate such sparse-data bias. In simulations, we illustrate 2 challenges encountered in meta-analyses of logistic regression results in settings of sparse data: 1) bias in the summary meta-analytical result and 2) confidence interval coverage that can worsen rather than improve, in terms of being less than nominal, as the number of studies in the meta-analysis increases

Pion Content of the Nucleon as seen in the NA51 Drell-Yan experiment

In a recent CERN Drell-Yan experiment the NA51 group found a strong asymmetry of $\bar u$ and $\bar d$ densities in the proton at $x\simeq0.18$. We interpret this result as a decisive confirmation of the pion-induced sea in the nucleon.Comment: 10 pages + 3 figures, Preprint KFA-IKP(TH)-1994-14 .tex file. After \enddocument a uu-encodeded Postscript file comprising the figures is appende

Missing Outcome Data in Epidemiologic Studies

Missing data are pandemic and a central problem for epidemiology. Missing data reduce precision and can cause notable bias. There remain too few simple published examples detailing types of missing data and illustrating their possible impact on results. Here we take an example randomized trial that was not subject to missing data and induce missing data to illustrate 4 scenarios in which outcomes are 1) missing completely at random, 2) missing at random with positivity, 3) missing at random without positivity, and 4) missing not at random. We demonstrate that accounting for missing data is generally a better strategy than ignoring missing data, which unfortunately remains a standard approach in epidemiology

Phase diagram for a class of spin-half Heisenberg models interpolating between the square-lattice, the triangular-lattice and the linear chain limits

We study the spin-half Heisenberg models on an anisotropic two-dimensional lattice which interpolates between the square-lattice at one end, a set of decoupled spin-chains on the other end, and the triangular-lattice Heisenberg model in between. By series expansions around two different dimer ground states and around various commensurate and incommensurate magnetically ordered states, we establish the phase diagram for this model of a frustrated antiferromagnet. We find a particularly rich phase diagram due to the interplay of magnetic frustration, quantum fluctuations and varying dimensionality. There is a large region of the usual 2-sublattice Ne\'el phase, a 3-sublattice phase for the triangular-lattice model, a region of incommensurate magnetic order around the triangular-lattice model, and regions in parameter space where there is no magnetic order. We find that the incommensurate ordering wavevector is in general altered from its classical value by quantum fluctuations. The regime of weakly coupled chains is particularly interesting and appears to be nearly critical.Comment: RevTeX, 15 figure

Hamiltonian 2-forms in Kahler geometry, III Extremal metrics and stability

This paper concerns the explicit construction of extremal Kaehler metrics on total spaces of projective bundles, which have been studied in many places. We present a unified approach, motivated by the theory of hamiltonian 2-forms (as introduced and studied in previous papers in the series) but this paper is largely independent of that theory. We obtain a characterization, on a large family of projective bundles, of those `admissible' Kaehler classes (i.e., the ones compatible with the bundle structure in a way we make precise) which contain an extremal Kaehler metric. In many cases, such as on geometrically ruled surfaces, every Kaehler class is admissible. In particular, our results complete the classification of extremal Kaehler metrics on geometrically ruled surfaces, answering several long-standing questions. We also find that our characterization agrees with a notion of K-stability for admissible Kaehler classes. Our examples and nonexistence results therefore provide a fertile testing ground for the rapidly developing theory of stability for projective varieties, and we discuss some of the ramifications. In particular we obtain examples of projective varieties which are destabilized by a non-algebraic degeneration.Comment: 40 pages, sequel to math.DG/0401320 and math.DG/0202280, but largely self-contained; partially replaces and extends math.DG/050151

Anatolian empires: Local experiences from hittites to phrygians at Çadır Höyük

Çadır Höyük provides rich evidence for the endurance and transformation of specific cultural features and phenomena at a rural center on the Anatolian plateau as it experienced the waxing and waning of control by imperial political powers of the Bronze and Iron Ages. Especially evident during those periods of imperial power is the construction and maintenance of public architecture; certain economic activities also shift in their importance at those times. Simultaneously, continuity in economic and social organization is also a feature stretching across times of imperial control and its loss. Examination of the archaeological evidence from Çadır Höyük suggests that nothing is as continuous, nor as discontinuous, as it might seem

Systematic Cu-63 NQR studies of the stripe phase in La(1.6-x)Nd(0.4)Sr(x)CuO(4) for 0.07 <= x <= 0.25

We demonstrate that the integrated intensity of Cu-63 nuclear quadrupole resonance (NQR) in La(1.6-x)Nd(0.4)Sr(x)CuO(4) decreases dramatically below the charge-stripe ordering temperature T(charge). Comparison with neutron and X-ray scattering indicates that the wipeout fraction F(T) (i.e. the missing fraction of the integrated intensity of the NQR signal) represents the charge-stripe order parameter. The systematic study reveals bulk charge-stripe order throughout the superconducting region 0.07 <= x <= 0.25. As a function of the reduced temperature t = T/T(charge), the temperature dependence of F(t) is sharpest for the hole concentration x=1/8, indicating that x=1/8 is the optimum concentration for stripe formation.Comment: 10 pages of text and captions, 11 figures in postscript. Final version, with new data in Fig.