Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs

G-LiHT: Goddard's LiDAR, Hyperspectral and Thermal Airborne Imager

Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center have developed an ultra-portable, low-cost, multi-sensor remote sensing system for studying the form and function of terrestrial ecosystems. G-LiHT integrates two LIDARs, a 905 nanometer single beam profiler and 1550 nm scanner, with a narrowband (1.5 nanometers) VNIR imaging spectrometer and a broadband (8-14 micrometers) thermal imager. The small footprint (approximately 12 centimeters) LIDAR data and approximately 1 meter ground resolution imagery are advantageous for high resolution applications such as the delineation of canopy crowns, characterization of canopy gaps, and the identification of sparse, low-stature vegetation, which is difficult to detect from space-based instruments and large-footprint LiDAR. The hyperspectral and thermal imagery can be used to characterize species composition, variations in biophysical variables (e.g., photosynthetic pigments), surface temperature, and responses to environmental stressors (e.g., heat, moisture loss). Additionally, the combination of LIDAR optical, and thermal data from G-LiHT is being used to assess forest health by sensing differences in foliage density, photosynthetic pigments, and transpiration. Low operating costs (approximately $1 ha) have allowed us to evaluate seasonal differences in LiDAR, passive optical and thermal data, which provides insight into year-round observations from space. Canopy characteristics and tree allometry (e.g., crown height:width, canopy:ground reflectance) derived from G-LiHT data are being used to generate realistic scenes for radiative transfer models, which in turn are being used to improve instrument design and ensure continuity between LiDAR instruments. G-LiHT has been installed and tested in aircraft with fuselage viewports and in a custom wing-mounted pod that allows G-LiHT to be flown on any Cessna 206, a common aircraft in use throughout the world. G-LiHT is currently being used for forest biomass and growth estimation in the CONUS and Mexico in support of NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and AMIGA-Carb (AMerican Icesat Glas Assessment of Carbon). For NASA's CMS, wall-to-wall G-LiHT data have been acquired over intensive study sites with historic LiDAR datasets, dense inventory data, stem maps and flux tower observations. For AMIGA-Carb, G-LiHT transects have been acquired over ICESat tracks and USDA-FS inventory plots throughout the CONUS, and similar data will be acquired in Mexico during 2013. This talk will highlight recent science results from continental-scale transects landscape-scale deployments of G-LiHT, as well as seasonal forest dynamics from repeat pass G-LiHT acquisitions

TrkA expression decreases the in vivo aggressiveness of C6 glioma cells

We stably expressed the nerve growth factor receptor trkA or a truncated trkA lacking the kinase domain (trkA delta) in a highly tumorigenic rat glioma cell line, C6. Survival of rats with large intrastriatal inocula of C6trkA cells was significantly longer than for rats bearing C6 or C6trkA delta cells. Histological studies revealed that C6trkA cells were much less invasive than C6 or C6trkA delta cells and had a greater rate of apoptosis. There was no apparent induction of differentiation of C6 cells by trkA. Therefore, unlike what is observed in neuroblastomas, trkA decreases tumorigenicity by modulating invasiveness and tumor cell death independent of inducing differentiation. This novel mechanism suggests a new therapeutic strategy for malignant gliomas

The VISTA Science Archive

We describe the VISTA Science Archive (VSA) and its first public release of data from five of the six VISTA Public Surveys. The VSA exists to support the VISTA Surveys through their lifecycle: the VISTA Public Survey consortia can use it during their quality control assessment of survey data products before submission to the ESO Science Archive Facility (ESO SAF); it supports their exploitation of survey data prior to its publication through the ESO SAF; and, subsequently, it provides the wider community with survey science exploitation tools that complement the data product repository functionality of the ESO SAF. This paper has been written in conjunction with the first public release of public survey data through the VSA and is designed to help its users understand the data products available and how the functionality of the VSA supports their varied science goals. We describe the design of the database and outline the database-driven curation processes that take data from nightly pipeline-processed and calibrated FITS files to create science-ready survey datasets. Much of this design, and the codebase implementing it, derives from our earlier WFCAM Science Archive (WSA), so this paper concentrates on the VISTA-specific aspects and on improvements made to the system in the light of experience gained in operating the WSA.Comment: 22 pages, 16 figures. Minor edits to fonts and typos after sub-editting. Published in A&

Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change

Background. There are several mechanisms by which global climate change may impact malaria transmission. We sought to assess how the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events associated with global climate change will influence malaria transmission in highland areas of East Africa

Gravitational Smearing of Minimal Supersymmetric Unification Predictions

A short and mean paper.Comment: 10 pages total + 1 postscript figure (included), revised: all lines are TRULY < 70 characters long (try it!); LBL-32905, UCB-PTH-92/3