China's Changing Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Profile: Drivers and Policy Implications

After decades of negligible outbound foreign direct investment (FDI), Chinese firms' outbound investment has reached significant levels in recent years, challenging international investment norms and affecting international relations. But China's outflows are poorly understood. Seen in context, China is a laggard in global investment, and the country faces numerous internal impediments to overcoming this disadvantaged position. Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann review the data behind China's growing outbound investment, consider the commercial and political forces driving this growth, and analyze both foreign and domestic obstacles for Chinese overseas investors. While extensive media coverage has provoked worries that Chinese firms are buying up the world, China remains a relatively minor global investor compared with OECD countries. China's net FDI position remains negative, with $5 of FDI assets under foreign ownership in China for every$1 of Chinese direct investment assets abroad. But China's efforts to rebalance its economic growth and make the shift toward higher value-added economic activity will increasingly force Chinese firms to invest abroad. Government policy has evolved in recent years to encourage and support China's firms to look abroad. Investment regimes in host countries are one obstacle to Chinese outbound FDI, but China's firms are even more impeded by home-made problems, including the parochial executive leadership and a dearth of key management skills needed to operate successfully overseas. Rosen and Hanemann argue that the growing volume and changing nature of China's outbound investment have important implications for policymakers in host countries. Host country governments must clarify their policies and draw a clearer line between legitimate national security reviews and protectionist economic competitiveness impulses disguised as security concerns. The lack of data transparency contributes to the poor understanding of China's outbound investment, and these inadequacies must be corrected if China and investment incumbents are to work together optimally. In addition, given its disadvantaged FDI starting position China should be expected to pull considerable weight to preserve and promote an open international investment environment, including by maintaining openness at home. If China converges upward to OECD outbound investment levels rather than incumbent leaders trimming down to historic Chinese levels due to protectionism, then future flows coming from China can contribute positively to a range of international issues, from financial crisis recovery to mitigating climate change.

Deepening China-Taiwan Relations through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement

On June 13, 2010, representatives from China and Taiwan held a third round of talks in Beijing on an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that would liberalize important aspects of cross-Strait economic relations. It is clear from available details that ECFA will be an ambitious accord that fundamentally changes the game between Taiwan and China and hence affects the regional economy and even the transpacific tempo for the United States. Rosen and Wang's economic projections of the effects of a China-Taiwan ECFA point to significant benefits of cross-Strait economic reform, especially for Taiwan, which would increase its 2020 GDP by about 4.5 percent, or $21 billion, from the current trend line. The authors, however, also conclude that the regional economy around China and Taiwan is not standing still but is extraordinarily dynamic. Other agreements in the region will be negotiated (e.g., ASEAN+3), which will impose costs on Taiwan, if it does not do an ECFA, to the tune of almost -0.8 percent of GDP. So the net effect of ECFA for Taiwan would be some 5.3 percent improvement in GDP by 2020. For China, the net results of ECFA are positive, though far less so than for Taiwan in value terms and of course as a share of GDP. For the United States, the authors project a very modest positive result from ECFA (though statistically marginal) but a more negative impact as the scenarios incorporating further Asian integration (ASEAN + 3) unfold. If the US objective is to maximize Taiwan's economic prospects and hence its freedom of independent action, then ECFA is highly desirable, and Taiwan's involvement in further Asian deepening is to be supported. However, US economic interests per se erode as Asia draws tighter together without US inclusion. That is an econometric reality. More significant still is the geoeconomic, qualitative implication of even long-standing nemeses China and Taiwan drawing together in a free trade pact while the United States watches, unable to ratify already negotiated Asian trade agreements like the US-Korea free trade agreement. While modest in global economic effects, the geoeconomic implications of a China-Taiwan economic pact are significant enough to demand strategic attention from the United States and underscore the importance of securing US economic engagement of the first order in Asia.

China's Economic Reforms: Chronology and Statistics

At the end of the twentieth century, the People's Republic of China faces stark trade policy choices. Market reforms implemented since 1978 have brought commercial strength and bright expectations for future prosperity. However, they have also brought China to the point where trading partners insist on commitments to liberal, internationally recognized trading principles. These calls come at a time when China is seeking to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO), is negotiating bilateral trade agreements with Europe, United States and its emerging neighbors, and is working out the terms of its participation in the ambitious Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

Chinese FDI in the United States is taking off: How to maximize its benefits?

China‘s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) grew rapidly in the past decade, but flows to developed economies have been limited. Now China‘s direct investment flows to the United States are poised to rise substantially. This new trend offers tremendous opportunities for the U. S., provided policymakers take steps to keep the investment environment open and utilize China‘s new interest productively

中国对美国直接投资快速增长：如何获得最大化的收益？

过去十年，中国的对外直接投资快速增长，但对发达经济体的投资十分有限。目前，中国对美国的投资快速增长。如果政策制定者能够采取措施保持开放的投资环境，并有效利用中国新增投资，那么这种新趋势将为美国提供巨大的机遇

Conditional Spectral Analysis of Replicated Multiple Time Series with Application to Nocturnal Physiology

This article considers the problem of analyzing associations between power spectra of multiple time series and cross-sectional outcomes when data are observed from multiple subjects. The motivating application comes from sleep medicine, where researchers are able to non-invasively record physiological time series signals during sleep. The frequency patterns of these signals, which can be quantified through the power spectrum, contain interpretable information about biological processes. An important problem in sleep research is drawing connections between power spectra of time series signals and clinical characteristics; these connections are key to understanding biological pathways through which sleep affects, and can be treated to improve, health. Such analyses are challenging as they must overcome the complicated structure of a power spectrum from multiple time series as a complex positive-definite matrix-valued function. This article proposes a new approach to such analyses based on a tensor-product spline model of Cholesky components of outcome-dependent power spectra. The approach flexibly models power spectra as nonparametric functions of frequency and outcome while preserving geometric constraints. Formulated in a fully Bayesian framework, a Whittle likelihood based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for automated model fitting and for conducting inference on associations between outcomes and spectral measures. The method is used to analyze data from a study of sleep in older adults and uncovers new insights into how stress and arousal are connected to the amount of time one spends in bed

Quantitative urban classification for malaria epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is rapidly urbanizing, the terms used to classify urban ecotypes are poorly defined in the context of malaria epidemiology. Lack of clear definitions may cause misclassification error, which likely decreases the accuracy of continent-wide estimates of malaria burden, limits the generalizability of urban malaria studies, and makes identification of high-risk areas for targeted interventions within cities more difficult. Accordingly, clustering techniques were applied to a set of urbanization- and malaria-related variables in Kisumu, Kenya, to produce a quantitative classification of the urban environment for malaria research.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Seven variables with a known or expected relationship with malaria in the context of urbanization were identified and measured at the census enumeration area (EA) level, using three sources: a) the results of a citywide knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey; b) a high-resolution multispectral satellite image; and c) national census data. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to identify three factors explaining higher proportions of the combined variance than the original variables. A k-means clustering algorithm was applied to the EA-level factor scores to assign EAs to one of three categories: "urban," "peri-urban," or "semi-rural." The results were compared with classifications derived from two other approaches: a) administrative designation of urban/rural by the census or b) population density thresholds.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Urban zones resulting from the clustering algorithm were more geographically coherent than those delineated by population density. Clustering distributed population more evenly among zones than either of the other methods and more accurately predicted variation in other variables related to urbanization, but not used for classification.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Effective urban malaria epidemiology and control would benefit from quantitative methods to identify and characterize urban areas. Cluster analysis techniques were used to classify Kisumu, Kenya, into levels of urbanization in a repeatable and unbiased manner, an approach that should permit more relevant comparisons among and within urban areas. To the extent that these divisions predict meaningful intra-urban differences in malaria epidemiology, they should inform targeted urban malaria interventions in cities across SSA.</p

Significance of Travel to Rural Areas as a Risk Factor for Malarial Anemia in an Urban Setting

Disclaimer: This manuscript was published with the approval of the Director of the Kenya Medical Research Institute. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The epidemiology of malaria in urban environments is poorly characterized, yet increasingly problematic. We conducted an unmatched case–control study of risk factors for malarial anemia with high parasitemia in urban Kisumu, Kenya, from June 2002 through February 2003. Cases (n = 80) were hospital patients with a hemoglobin level <= 8 g/dL and a Plasmodium parasite density ≥ 10,000/μL. Controls (n = 826) were healthy respondents to a concurrent citywide knowledge, attitude, and practice survey. Children who reported spending at least one night per month in a rural area were especially at risk (35% of cases; odds ratio = 9.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.4–19.7, P < 0.0001), and use of mosquito coils, bed net ownership, and house construction were non-significant, potentially indicating that malaria exposure during rural travel comprises an important element of risk. Control of severe malaria in an urban setting may be complicated by Plasmodium infections acquired elsewhere. Epidemiologic studies of urban malaria in low transmission settings should take travel history into account.This research was supported by CDC/KEMRI and by the University of Michigan through the Rackham Graduate School, the Center for Research on Ethnicity, Culture and Health, and the Global Health Program.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91955/1/2010 AJTMH Significance of Travel to Rural Areas as a Risk Factor for Malarial Anemia in an Urban Setting.pd

Preferential tau aggregation in von Economo neurons and fork cells in frontotemporal lobar degeneration with specific MAPT variants.

Tau aggregation is a hallmark feature in a subset of patients with frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Early and selective loss of von Economo neurons (VENs) and fork cells within the frontoinsular (FI) and anterior cingulate cortices (ACC) is observed in patients with sporadic behavioral variant FTD (bvFTD) due to frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD), including FTLD with tau inclusions (FTLD-tau). Recently, we further showed that these specialized neurons show preferential aggregation of TDP-43 in FTLD-TDP. Whether VENs and fork cells are prone to tau accumulation in FTLD-tau remains unclear, and no previous studies of these neurons have focused on patients with pathogenic variants in the gene encoding microtubule-associated protein tau (FTLD-tau/MAPT). Here, we examined regional profiles of tau aggregation and neurodegeneration in 40 brain regions in 8 patients with FTLD-tau/MAPT and 7 with Pick's disease (PiD), a sporadic form of FTLD-tau that often presents with bvFTD. We further qualitatively assessed the cellular patterns of frontoinsular tau aggregation in FTLD-tau/MAPT using antibodies specific for tau hyperphosphorylation, acetylation, or conformational change. ACC and mid-insula were among the regions most affected by neurodegeneration and tau aggregation in FTLD-tau/MAPT and PiD. In these two forms of FTLD-tau, severity of regional neurodegeneration and tau protein aggregation were highly correlated across regions. In FTLD-tau/MAPT, VENs and fork cells showed disproportionate tau protein aggregation in patients with V337 M, A152T, and IVS10 + 16 variants, but not in patients with the P301L variant. As seen in FTLD-TDP, our data suggest that VENs and fork cells represent preferentially vulnerable neuron types in most, but not all of the MAPT variants we studied

A census-weighted, spatially-stratified household sampling strategy for urban malaria epidemiology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Urban malaria is likely to become increasingly important as a consequence of the growing proportion of Africans living in cities. A novel sampling strategy was developed for urban areas to generate a sample simultaneously representative of population and inhabited environments. Such a strategy should facilitate analysis of important epidemiological relationships in this ecological context.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Census maps and summary data for Kisumu, Kenya, were used to create a pseudo-sampling frame using the geographic coordinates of census-sampled structures. For every enumeration area (EA) designated as urban by the census (n = 535), a sample of structures equal to one-tenth the number of households was selected. In EAs designated as rural (n = 32), a geographically random sample totalling one-tenth the number of households was selected from a grid of points at 100 m intervals. The selected samples were cross-referenced to a geographic information system, and coordinates transferred to handheld global positioning units. Interviewers found the closest eligible household to the sampling point and interviewed the caregiver of a child aged < 10 years. The demographics of the selected sample were compared with results from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey to assess sample validity. Results were also compared among urban and rural EAs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>4,336 interviews were completed in 473 of the 567 study area EAs from June 2002 through February 2003. EAs without completed interviews were randomly distributed, and non-response was approximately 2%. Mean distance from the assigned sampling point to the completed interview was 74.6 m, and was significantly less in urban than rural EAs, even when controlling for number of households. The selected sample had significantly more children and females of childbearing age than the general population, and fewer older individuals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This method selected a sample that was simultaneously population-representative and inclusive of important environmental variation. The use of a pseudo-sampling frame and pre-programmed handheld GPS units is more efficient and may yield a more complete sample than traditional methods, and is less expensive than complete population enumeration.</p