Strategic and semi-strategic voting under different electoral systems

Strategic voting is often associated with plurality systems. This paper argues that strategic considerations also play a role in elections held under other electoral systems. Strategic considerations take various forms, such as which party (or candidate) receives a majority or plurality, which coalition is formed, and who becomes prime minister. The impact of the latter two factors is examined in the context of four Dutch parliamentary elections (characterised by PR, a single district, 150 seats, and a threshold of 0.67 per cent). The findings show that both factors played a double role. First, about 10 per cent of the voters appear to have voted strategically on the basis of these considerations. Second, among the even more sizeable group of voters who liked two or more parties equally well, strategic considerations were apparently used as tie-breaker; this phenomenon is referred to as ‘semi-strategic voting’

Reducing High-Risk Young Adult Offenders\u27 Attrition From Reentry Programs

Reentry programs have been demonstrated to reduce recidivism. These same programs experience high attrition rates that degrade effectiveness and reduce capacity. Recidivism rates are reported as over 77% after 5 years from release which negatively impact society, victims and the released offenders. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to examine recently released offenders\u27 insights regarding attrition from reentry programs to provide program administrators with themes that may be useful in addressing attrition. Social learning theory was used to frame the study. Audio recordings were collected during semistructured interviews with 21 reentry program participants. The recordings were transcribed and organized by stage and individual participant. The data was then coded to develop emergent themes about attrition. The themes were unawareness of reentry programs, inefficient learning processes, and lack of cooperative relationships. The themes that offer insight into the self-reported feelings were optimism turns to frustration when learned skills do not provide the expected outcomes and willingness to inform others about the reentry program. Results may provide reentry program administrators with insights to improve the design and execution of reentry programs to facilitate completion by high-risk offenders, which may lower the risk of recidivism

Gemeenteraadsverkiezingen 2010: een blik achter de schermen

Dit rapport gaat over wat er komt kijken bij het organiseren van lokale verkiezingen, met name voor politieke partijen. Het onderzoek is gebaseerd op interviews met ruim dertig betrokkenen en een studie van documenten in de gemeenten Gouda en Meppel. De aandacht gaat vooral uit naar drie kernactiviteiten: schrijven van verkiezingsprogramma’s, opstellen van kandidatenlijsten, en voeren van campagne. In de praktijk gebeurt dat door drie aparte lokale commissies en spelen “gewone leden” geen noemenswaardige rol. De meeste partijen zien de gemeenteraadverkiezingen in het licht van de daarop volgende collegevorming. Zij denken daarbij verschillend over de plaats van de (beoogd) wethouder op de kandidatenlijst en zijn eventuele rol als lijsttrekker: vanzelfsprekend volgens sommigen, volstrekt ongepast vanwege de dualisering volgens anderen. De inhoudelijke verschillen tussen de partijen waren beperkt. In beide gemeenten weerspiegelde de uitslag landelijke trends en raakte de gemeenteraad meer gefragmenteerd. Hierdoor waren veel partijen nodig om tot een meerderheid in het college te komen. De onderhandelingen hiervoor hadden een eigen dynamiek en werden nauwelijks beinvloed door de verkiezingsuitslag. Het rapport is geschreven in opdracht van het Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelatie

Risk factors for violence among long-term psychiatric in-patients: a comparison between violent and non-violent patients

Objective: The problem of the prediction of violence in psychiatric patients has led to a proliferation of research over the last decade. This study focuses on enduring patient related risk factors of violence, and investigates which long-term patients in Weskoppies Hospital (a specialist psychiatric hospital) are the most likely to commit violent acts. Method: Nursing statistics on violent incidents and other security breaches were collected for 262 long-term in-patients over a six month period (April – September 2007). The 41 patients who committed violent acts were compared to the 221 non-violent patients in terms of demographic and clinical variables, using two-way tables and Chi-Square or Fisher’s Exact Tests. Results: The prevalence of violence among the long-term patients was 16%. Fighting among patients was the most common form of violence (58%). The most significant risk factors of violence among the long-term patients are: A diagnosis of mental retardation; first hospital admission before the age of 40 years; total hospital stay >12 years; current accommodation in a closed ward; habitual verbal aggression; absence of disorganised behaviour; and being clinically evaluated as unsuitable for community placement. Conclusion: The findings will help to identify those long-term patients most at risk of violence. The subgroup of patients with mental retardation is responsible for a disproportionately large number of violent acts in the hospital. The risk lies not so much in their psychiatricsymptoms, but more in their cognitive ability, coping skills and  inappropriate admission circumstances. Efforts should be directed– at a provincial level – towards their community placement.Key words: Violence; Risk factors; Inpatients; Mental disorders; South Afric

Government Formation and Strategic Voting in Multi-Party Systems:Voting for Coalitions in the Netherlands

Voters may have different strategic reasons to vote for a party that is not their favourite. The best known form of strategic voting takes place in majoritarian electoral systems, where citizens may decide to not waste their vote by supporting a candidate that has no chance of winning the seat. This incentive to vote strategically is absent in proportional systems with large district magnitude. We argue that in multi-party systems another form of strategic voting takes place, as considerations about future coalitions may also stimulate citizens to vote strategically. We analyse this for Netherlands on the basis of the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study 2006, which contained a novel series of survey items aimed at identifying such considerations. The results suggest that Dutch voters did indeed vote strategically on the basis of their preferences for the future coalition. Voters’ estimates of the probability that particular coalitions would form, on the other hand, had virtually no impact